No Rodgers, no problem?
With Joe Burrow ruled out, we’re down to Aaron Rodgers as the great unknown QB for today’s NFL Week 12 menu.
VSiN’s Matt Youmans doesn’t seem too worried about Rodgers’ status vs. the Bears (1 ET, CBS). In fact, . . .
The Steelers are officially listing Aaron Rodgers as questionable with a small fracture in his left wrist, but it might be better if he sits this one out and allows Mason Rudolph to run the offense. Rudolph was sharp when he stepped in last week and completed 12 of 16 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. Chicago’s defense is compromised with three starting linebackers — Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell — ruled out with injuries. The Bears, 7-3 mostly due to their league-best turnover margin of +16, have escaped with wins by margins of one, one, two, four and five points and it can be argued they should have lost all five of those games. I bet Pittsburgh +3 early in the week and will stick with coach Mike Tomlin as an underdog in a game he’s probably going to win outright.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
In today’s other matchup of division leaders, the Bucs travel to LA to meet the Rams (8:15 ET, NBC).
Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley is on the NFC South leaders:
The Rams are riding a five-game winning streak while the Bucs have dropped two straight vs. the AFC East’s Patriots and Bills, so it’s obvious the Rams should be favored. But I have it at closer to a field goal or -3.5. I usually prefer if I’m getting value crossing a key number, but I still have the Bucs as the right side. Despite lopsided losses to the Bills and earlier this year at the Lions, Baker Mayfield usually keeps the Bucs in their games and I definitely see this being decided by a late field goal.
Dave liked the Bucs at +6.5, so he really likes them at the current +7.
👉 Come for the picks from Dave, stay for a diatribe on the McRibb rollout.
More Best Bets columns:
👉 Zach Cohen (plus his SNF preview)
FYi: In a nice show of restraint, Pauly Howard doesn’t like any kicking props this week.
Josh Appelbaum will post his NFL Sharp Report this morning.
Man + Machine Best Bets
I ran Makinen’s NFL Week 12 Analytics Report through AI and asked for the top plays based on the trends, power ratings and betting systems:
The No. 1 Best Bet from Steve/Chat GPT was the Browns +4 (at Circa) vs. the Raiders. Here’s why:
✔ Multiple Independent PLAY Systems
- Makinen Underdog Ratings: CLE ranked top-3 across multiple rating systems.
- Veteran QB Systems: Geno Smith (LV) = strong FADE indicators.
- Retread Coach Systems: Pete Carroll as a favorite = FADE.
- Rookie QB systems: Normally FADE rookies — BUT Cleveland is a non-divisional conference opponent, where rookies are 71-57 ATS since 2018 → PLAY Cleveland.
- Series history: Under is 8-2; close games → favors dog.
✔ Strong Las Vegas FADE Indicators
- 3 different systems flag LV as a fade team this week.
- LV poor vs losing teams (8-21 ATS).
- LV poor after SU losses (38-52 ATS).
Also, I’m told Brent Musburger, The Godfather of VSiN, loves the Browns plus the points.
FYI: The next-best AI recommendations are the Browns-Raiders Under (36), the Steelers +3 and Bucs +6.5.
Speaking of AI, we offer the Opta AI player prop projections. Let’s see what the biggest differences between the DraftKings line and the AI projection:
Tyrod Taylor, Jets: Over 184.5 passing yards at DK (Opta AI +42.31)
Treveyon Henderson, Patriots: Over 52.5 rushing yards at DK (+21.82)
Davante Adams, Rams: Over 63.5 receiving yards at DK (+22.89)
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
Zach Cohen uses the three prop tools to come up with some plays for your consideration.
Programming reminder: Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard will have all the late-breaking news and line moves on the VSiN Pro Football Tailgate Show (9-Noon ET) along with Dr. David Chao, Warren Sharp and John Hansen.
Other NFL Week 12 resources
Everything we posted on NFL Week 12 is here.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
Contest Corner: Circa selections
As they are every week, the selections for the three Circa contests were revealed Saturday night on The Football Contest Show (9-10 ET):
>Circa Survivor: The 49ers (vs. the Panthers on MNF) are the top choice with 298 entries (31.7% of the 934 live entries). The Ravens (vs. the Jets) are second with 267. The Bills’ loss on TNF eliminated 5 entries.
>Circa Grandissimo: With six live entries left, there are 3 on the Seahawks, 2 on the 49ers and 1 on the Lions.
>Circa Million: The Lions (-10 vs. Giants) are the top pick with 2,683 entries on them, followed by Cowboys +3.5 (1,770), Patriots -6.5 (1,454), Chiefs -3.5 (1,383) and Cardinals +3 (1,347).
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
The most popular pick in the Circa Friday Football Invitational is the Chiefs -3 vs. the Colts. The contest is sponsored by Omaha Steaks. Get their holiday deals here.
Adam Burke breaks down how the EdgeBoost Average Joe contestants played the card.
Today in college basketball
Greg “Hoops” Peterson has his picks for today’s college basketball menu.
Greg also posts daily handicapped lines and handicaps every game every day during the season on the Coast-to-Coast Hoops podcast.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets column and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Soccer: Nigel Seeley offers his Best Bets for the EPL weekend menu.
