Through two weeks of NFL action, there are 10 undefeated teams and 10 winless teams.
Is that a true indicator of how those teams played?
Steve Makinen’s betting systems for this week are intended to help you avoid falling into the trap of making too many assumptions based on two games.
Week 3 has had a penchant for evening the scales, so tread cautiously, and perhaps, have the courage to go “against the grain” in terms of what we’ve seen so far. Bettors who have done so have normally reaped the rewards.
Here is one of his six systems:
Teams that start 0-2 SU are 31-27 SU and 40-17-1 ATS (70.2%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
Steve explains the thesis behind this insight:
A tidal wave of negativity gets associated with the winless teams after two weeks, and while they typically remain bad when matched against undefeated teams, they do perform quite well against middle-of-the-road opponents. In most cases, 1-1 teams have shown early signs of inconsistency, and I don’t know any bettors who are actively looking to bet teams like that. Trust that the desperate 0-2 teams will bring their best effort into this week’s game, motivated by the fear of going 0-3 and what that has historically meant to teams’ playoff chances.
Here are the four games that qualify under this system:
- Carolina (+3.5) vs. Atlanta
- Houston (+1.5) at Jacksonville
- New Orleans (+7.5) at Seattle
- Chicago (-3.5) vs. Dallas
Last year’s results: Seven qualifiers went 5-2 SU and ATS.
>>Five more systems from Steve.
Mike Somich recaps his results so far in making picks for NEXT WEEK’s games — 2-0 with five points of closing line value in Week 2 — and has two picks for Week 4.
>>NFL Week 3 Hub with stories and resources.
Makinen’s CFB power ratings, explained
Steve Makinen is cranking out the copy this week.
He explains how he comes up with his five different college football power ratings.
And he has posted this week’s qualifying games for his various systems, trends and power ratings.
Unfortunately, his stability score system finished with its first losing season, at 17-22.
>CFB Week 4 Hub with stories and resources.
Golden (Gate) nights
I have mentioned here in the newsletter that at one point I broke Howard Hughes‘ record for living in hotels in Las Vegas. Roughly five years.
I spent at least a year’s worth of days staying at the Golden Gate, the oldest hotel in Las Vegas, just across Fremont Street from Circa.
That’s why I will be at the Golden Gate on Friday at 6 p.m. to experience the premiere of its “The Night Starts Here” extravaganza.
From 6-7 every night, the Gate will kickstart your nocturnal activities with a champagne toast, an open bar and plenty of free play.
So stop by Friday if you are in town — or any of the next 354 days.
Quick Hits
MLB: Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s MLB menu. Adam Burke and Steve Makinenwill post their contributions later this morning.
Horse Racing: “Mr. Ed” Sehon and 1/ST Bet’s Jeremy Plonk have picks for today’s card. Horse racing coverage is sponsored by 1/ST BET. Get your $250 sign-up bonus.
