Today, we have two NFL Week 4 games featuring 3-0 vs. 0-3 teams — Saints at Bills (-14.5) and Chargers (-6) at Giants — and one with two winless teams — Titans at Texans (-7).
But we also have a matchup of unbeatens — Eagles (-3.5) at Bucs (1 p.m. Fox).
Dave Tuley steps up with an opinion on this one:
The advance line was Eagles -2.5, so I thought this was going to be in Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, but the line has continued to rise. I’m not sure why, so I’m actually preferring the Bucs +3.5 as a straight bet.
We all saw the wild endings of these two teams’ games on Sunday with the Bucs (-6.5) re-rallying to beat the Jets 29-27 on a last-second FG and the Eagles (-3.5) rallying to hold a late lead and then blocking a FG on the last play of the game and running it back for a TD to win 33-26 for the miracle cover.
So why was this line reopened at Eagles -3 and bet to 3.5? The defending champion Eagles are obviously a very public team, but the Bucs can match them score for score as they’re used to playing close games down to the wire (3-0 by a combined six points). We have a live home dog here against an Eagles team that is also 3-0, but no easy wins either. Bucs +3.5.
>>Tuley’s Takes on every game.
To answer Dave’s question, maybe there is some doubt among bettors about the health of Bucs QB Baker Mayfield (listed as questionable with right biceps injury), but he is expected to play.
The rest of our Best Bets columns stayed away from Eagles-Bucs, so I checked what the contestants in the Circa Friday Football Invitational did with this one (all picks are here):
- Weston Stradtman: Eagles (-3.5)
- Jim Feist: Bucs (+3.5)
- Frank Betti / Anthony Curtis: Bucs (+3.5)
In the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest, 62 percent took the Bucs. Adam Burke breaks down the top sides and totals for the Average Joes
Best Bets columns covering the rest of the menu:
Plus Josh Appelbaum‘s NFL Sharp Report will arrive later this morning.
Of course, VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our NFL picks page with all the plays from hosts and guests this week.
New player prop tools
We have two new resources to help you with player props:
Opta AI Player Projections: VSiN has partnered with Opta AI to produce QB, RB and WR projections. You can compare the projections to the DraftKings Sportsbook prop lines to find value. Sort by stats and biggest differences between the projection and the line. >>Go here.
As of Saturday night, here were the biggest deltas between actual line and projection:
- Lamar Jackson, Ravens: +40.59 passing yards Over
- Derrick Henry, Ravens: -23.62 rushing yards Under
- Ladd McConkey, +28.83 receiving yards Over
Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool: We have a sortable chart showing how wide receivers match up against cornerbacks each week. It highlights where WRs line up, who’s covering them and whether the matchup is favorable. You can use it to find edges in player props, game totals and parlays. >>Go here.
Plus we still have the NFL Prop Analyzer.
Check out our NFL Week 4 Hub with stories and resources, including First TD handicapping and player prop advice from Adam Burke and kicking props from Pauly Howard.
Week 4 resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
>Injury Report: Jets QB Justin Fields (concussion) was cleared to play Monday vs. the Dolphins in the other battle of winless teams.
Contest Corner: Circa selections
As they are every week, the consensus picks for the three Circa contests were revealed Saturday night on The Football Contest Show (9-10 ET):
>Circa Million: The Falcons (+1 vs. the Commanders) are the top pick with 1,905 entries, followed by the Packers (-6.5 at the Cowboys) with 1,833. The Falcons flipped to the favorite (-1.5) after it was announced that Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin will miss the game.
>Circa Survivor: The Bills (vs. Saints) are the most popular pick with 4,130 entries (30%). The Texans were the second choice with 3,694 (26.8%). There were 24 no-picks and 4 entries on the Cardinals, leaving 13,783 live entries (with 49 already advancing on the Seahawks).
>Circa Grandissimo: With 58 live entries in the high-stakes survivor contest, the Bills were the top pick with 18 (31%) with the Texans right behind at 17.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
MLB playoff race
The playoff situation heading into the final day of the regular season, according to VSiN’s baseball bigfoot, Adam Burke:
We know 11 of the 12 of the MLB playoff teams and we just don’t know who will play who yet. The Reds and Mets enter Sunday with identical records and Cincinnati has the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Reds beat the Brewers, they are in. If the Reds lose, the Mets need to beat the Marlins to get in. No matter what, the Reds/Mets Wild Card team will be the No. 6 seed and play the Dodgers on the road. The Cubs host the Padres and the Brewers and Phillies have the byes.
There are a few scenarios surrounding Tigers vs. Red Sox and Rangers vs. Guardians. If both Cleveland and Detroit win, the Guardians win the AL Central and host the Red Sox. If the Guardians win and the Tigers lose, Cleveland wins the AL Central and hosts Detroit. If the Guardians lose and the Tigers win, then Detroit hosts Cleveland. If both teams lose, Cleveland wins the AL Central and Detroit heads to Cleveland for Game 1 on Tuesday.
Also, the AL East still needs to be decided. Toronto owns the tiebreaker, so if they beat the Rays, they are the No. 1 seed with a bye. The Mariners are already locked into the No. 2. If the Blue Jays lose and the Yankees beat the Orioles, then Toronto is the No. 4 seed and would host the No. 5 seed. Still lots of things to be decided on Sunday, even if only one playoff spot is up for grabs.
Greg Peterson has five plays for today. Steve Makinen will post his Analytics Report this morning.
College Football Week 5 recap
Week 5 of the college football season lived up to its billing:
>USC (-6.5) at. Illinois: ILL 34-32
>LSU (+1.5) at Ole Miss: MISS 24-19
>Auburn (+7) vs. Texas A&M: A&M 16-10
>Alabama (+3) at Georgia: ALA 24-21
>Oregon (+3.5) at Penn State: ORE 30-24 (2OT)
Quick Hits
Ryder Cup: If you are interested in betting on Team USA, it is a juicy +6000 for the Americans to lift the trophy. Europe is -10000. I caught up with Matt Brown on Saturday night as he was hosting The Football Contest Show. He said he may never bet the Ryder Cup again.
NASCAR: Steve Makinen has posted his final simulation for today’s race at Kansas and shared his picks:
Top 5: Larson, Briscoe, Hamlin, Byron, Wallace
Top underdogs to consider: Beuscher, Wallace, Smith, Jones, Allmendinger, Berry
Favorites to struggle: Chastain, Cindric, Blaney, Logano
>Adam Burke‘s race preview with more analysis from Steve.
Horse Racing: “Mr. Ed” Sehon has picks for today. Horse racing coverage is sponsored by 1/ST BET. Get your $250 sign-up bonus (plus a VSiN Pro subscription).
Soccer: Nigel Seeley has his top plays for this weekend’s EPL menu.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis has posted 32 team previews on our NHL page.
