My Cubs were eliminated by the Brewers, who posted a 3-1 victory in Game 5 on Saturday night to advance against the Dodgers in the NLCS. LA is a -200 series favorite at DraftKings vs. Milwaukee’s +170. Scroll down for ALCS Game 1 coverage. The day wasn’t a total loss, though, as my alma mater Northwestern upset Penn State 22-21 as a three-TD underdog.
We have 12 NFL games over roughly 14 hours today, starting with the Broncos (-7) vs. the Jets in London and finishing with the Lions (+2.5) vs. the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Since I’m not a big fan of trying to handicap international travel impact for teams, let’s see what our guys have to say about the Lions-Chiefs matchup.
Matt Youmans: The Chiefs (2-3) are 0-3 in one-score outcomes — losing to the Chargers, Eagles and Jaguars — after going 11-0 in one-score games last season. With the Chiefs close to being a 4-1 team, Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid talked at length this week about cleaning up the costly mistakes. The price is cheap on Kansas City, which will be a focused home favorite. >>More Best Bets.
Steve Makinen: The Lions’ recent wins also have to be taken with a grain of salt, as they were against four of the league’s worst teams statistically. Their one loss came against the best defense they faced, in an actual tough environment, similar to this. I’ll lay the -2.5 points with the Chiefs. >>More Best Bets.
Wes Reynolds: The Chiefs fell to defeat at Jacksonville on Monday night, but the Kansas City offense looks back to its typical standard with 858 yards in the last two games, including 476 against the Jaguars. Detroit is running out of secondary with two corners already on IR, plus Terrion Arnold being out and questionable statuses for Brian Branch, Avonte Maddox, and Kerby Joseph. >>More Best Bets.
Well, that’s a lot of Chiefs’ love. There is some Lions’ support among contestants in the Circa Friday Football Invitational:
Edwin Meyer/Carl Sack: Chiefs (-2)
Jeff Whitelaw: Chiefs (-2)
Chuck Edel: Chiefs (-2)
Mike North: Chiefs (-2)
Jeff Petch: Chiefs (-2)
Paul Bovi: Chiefs (-2)
Weston Stradtman: Lions (+2)
Drew Bridges: Lions (+2)
Cris Zeniuk: Lions (+2)
Tony Gordon UNDER (53)
>>Go here for all of the contest picks and standings.
Our Opta AI player prop projections predict Unders for two featured players in this game. The DraftKings line on Mahomes passing yards is 268.5, but Opta AI is at 224.93. The DK line on Jahmyr Gibbs’ rushing yards is 69.5 and Opta AI has 45.34.
You can compare the projections to the DraftKings Sportsbook prop lines to find value. Sort by stats and biggest differences between the projection and the line. >>Go here.
FYI: The projections will adjust up to game time based on injuries and line moves.
Other Best Bets columns:
Everything we have posted on NFL Week 6 is here, including First TD handicapping and player prop advice from Adam Burke and kicking props from Pauly Howard.
Week 6 resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
Programming reminder: Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard kick off our live programming at 9 a.m. ET with the VSiN Pro Football Tailgate Show, followed by Countdown to Kickoff with Stormy Buonantony and Jonathan Von Tobel at Noon ET. Mitch and Pauly’s guests include Warren Sharp, Dr. David Chao and John Hansen.
Dr. Chao sent his notes for today’s injury update and he likes Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy to exceed his player prop lines. Opta AI is not quite as enthusiastic as of late Saturday.
Survivor majority goes with Packers
As they are every week, the consensus picks for the three Circa contests were revealed Saturday night on The Football Contest Show (9-10 ET):
>Circa Survivor: A whopping 54.5 percent (2,528) of the remaining entries took the Packers (-14 vs. the Bengals). There were 5 no-picks and 89 entries on the Eagles on TNF, so there are 4,552 live entries heading into today’s action.
>Circa Grandissimo: We’re down to 15 live entries in the high-stakes survivor contest because 1 was eliminated with the Eagles’ loss. Thirteen entries are on the Packers, 1 on the Colts and 1 on the Rams.
>Circa Million: The Seahawks (pick’em vs. the Jaguars) is the No. 1 pick with 1,605 entries, just one ahead of the Steelers (-5.5 vs. the Browns).
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
MLB Playoffs: ALCS Game 1
Dave Tuley weighs in on the Mariners-Blue Jays series, which starts tonight:
I’ll take the Mariners at +115 on the series price and also +140 in Game 1. There’s particular value there as I think the oddsmakers have jacked up the Game 1 price (especially relative to the series price) because of the conventional wisdom out there that the Mariners went through a tough series and had to use all pitchers available just to survive Game 5 while the Blue Jays were able to set their rotation by finishing their series more than two days earlier.
But that’s only the first step on his betting strategy. >>Read more.
Adam Burke will file his Best Bets and Steve Makinen will have his Analytics Report later this morning.
MLB resources
Quick Hits
NBA: The VSiN NBA Betting Guide is ready for download.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day. Steve Makinen makes daily power ratings that generate an estimated score for every game that is displayed on our NHL matchups page.
Horse Racing: “Mr. Ed” Sehon offers his picks for today’s Keeneland card.
Horse racing coverage is sponsored by 1/ST BET. Use the code VSiN250 to get your $250 sign-up bonus.
NASCAR: Steve Makinen has posted his final simulation for today’s South Point 400 in Las Vegas and shared his picks:
Top 5: Byron, Larson, Hamlin, Briscoe, Elliott
Top underdogs to consider: Bowman, Beuscher, Gibbs, Chastain, Berry
Favorites to struggle: Logano, Cindric, Keselowski
