Zach Cohen turns to the VSiN Betting Splits page to set up tonight’s Panthers-49ers game (8:15 ET, ABC/ESPN).
Our VSiN betting splits are interesting heading into this Monday Night Football game. DraftKings Sportsbook opened with San Francisco laying 7, but the 49ers are now 7.5-point favorites there. Meanwhile, Circa Sports opened with San Francisco as 6.5-point favorites, and the book has moved the 49ers to -7.
However, it is intriguing that Circa doesn’t have San Francisco at 7.5. Circa is known as one of the sharpest books around, so it’s telling that their oddsmakers aren’t budging and making Carolina available at +7.5 — despite seemingly all of the action coming in on the home team.
It definitely seems like the oddsmakers at Circa don’t want to give smart bettors the option of backing the Panthers +7.5, which is where I’d be leaning if forced to take a side in this game.
👉 We don’t force Zach to make a side, but he does have a prop and a play on the Total.
Steve Makinen, on the other hand, does take a side on this one. citing his power ratings.
No matter what Carolina’s record is, my strength indicators still show the Panthers to be a below-average team. Let’s put it this way: my average NFL Power Rating is 24. Carolina is currently a 20.5, with an equivalent Effective Strength Rating of 19.8 and an Effective Yards Per Play Rating of 19.0. Despite being just one game better in the standings, San Francisco shows the same ratings of 27, 27.2, and 25.4.
When adding what amounts to a +3.3-point HFA after this week’s study, essentially all my ratings say this line should be at or close to double-digits, not 7. It sure looks like the 49ers might be ready to take off now, coming off a huge 41-22 road win at Arizona and seemingly getting healthier every week. Give me the 49ers (-7) to win handily on MNF.
Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley is on the dog. 👉 Read why.
Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report this morning.
MNF resources
>Opta AI player prop projections for MNF
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
NFL Week 12 in review
Week 12 favorites led 9-3 SU on the day, but dogs led 8-4 ATS with 5 covering in losses (NYJ, NYG, CIN, TEN, IND). Unders led 8-4 . 👉 Season ATS stats from Dave Tuley.
The biggest Week 12 injury: Bucs QB Baker Mayfield sprained his left shoulder in the first half of a 34-7 loss to the Rams and didn’t return. He’ll have an MRI today.
In other news, the Raiders fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly after a 24-10 home loss to the Browns (+3) in Shedeur Sanders’ first start.
Moving on to Week 13 and a short one for eight teams, Adam Burke has his analysis of the early lines based on results and injuries.
Patrick Meagher and Mike Somich do an NFL review/preview on the Sharp Money podcast.
FYI: Opta AI went 18-9 on passing yards, 37-33 on rushing yards and 74-68 on receiving yards.
Circa Survivor at 900
>Circa Survivor: There are 900 live entries with 298 on the 49ers tonight. Only 34 were eliminated on Sunday: 29 on the Raiders and 5 on the Saints.
>Circa Grandissimo: 3 of the 6 live entries are on the 49ers tonight.
>Circa Million: The top 5 most-selected went 1-3-1 with losses by the Lions -10, Patriots -6.5 and Chiefs -3.5; a win by Cowboys +3.5; a push on Cards +3. Per Tuley, the top 5 consensus is 23-36-1 (39%) for the season.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
>Circa Friday Football Invitational: Connecticut pro bettor Jason Jarvis leads by 2.5 points with the 49ers -7 pending. >>Standings.
>EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: VSiN Pro subscriber John DeFabis takes the Week 12 prize of $500 in an EdgeBoost account. He won the tiebreaker vs. seven other contestants with perfect records, based on action points. >>Leaderboard.
Holiday college hoops advice
Thanksgiving college basketball tournaments dominate the menu this week, so I wanted to share this piece from Steve Makinen.
Steve went through 4,665 games played on neutral courts in November and December and came up with 12 betting systems. Here is No. 1:
Favorites of 20 points or more have gone 94-2 SU but just 36-58-2 ATS (38.3%). That is obviously a pretty big number to lay in college basketball with a favorite that is playing in an unfamiliar environment after travel. Typically, these neutral games can have unusual rest routines associated with them as well, making covering big numbers even more difficult.
Greg “Hoops” Peterson has his picks for today’s games.
Greg also posts daily handicapped lines and handicaps every game every day during the season on the Coast-to-Coast Hoops podcast.
Adam Burke will offer his college basketball Best Bets Monday-Saturday. You can find them on our college basketball page mid-morning.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
Quick Hits
College Football: Adam Burke adjusts his power ratings based on Week 13 results and highlights some of the early line moves for Week 14.
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets column and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
