Long Shots is the name of the golf betting show that Matt Brown co-hosts with Wes Reynolds and Kelley Bydlon.
So maybe I shouldn’t have been surprised by some of Matt’s picks in the VSiN NFL Betting Guide, now available for download.
I was reading through the guide looking for the biggest prices and Matt definitely took some long shots. For example:
Joe Burrow to win Offensive Player of the Year (50-1): I know the Offensive Player of the Year Award has become the de facto ‘award for best non quarterback’, but hear me out. Joe Burrow has the best 1-2 punch of receivers in the NFL. He also is likely going to be throwing the ball a ton as the team continues to either keep pace or rally from a deficit, given the lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball. I think the upside here is Burrow eclipsing his league-leading 4,918 passing yards from last season…BUT squeaking into the playoffs. This might be just the formula needed to win the OPOY. The team isn’t good enough for MVP, but the consolation prize is OPOY. I like the number and the route to getting there.
Shedeur Sanders (40-1) / Dillon Gabriel (80-1) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year: I am here to make the dual case for Sanders and Gabriel. The Browns have proven to be a joke of an organization, so I suppose there is a chance they start one of Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett at quarterback. It would make absolutely no sense, but what have they done to make a lot of sense lately? Any rookie starting quarterback in the NFL is worthy of OROY talk. Cam Ward is going to play for a bad team with a shaky offensive line. Tyler Shough? The Saints are going to be the worst team in the NFL. Jaxson Dart might not see the field until after the Giants Week 14 bye. Opportunity is the play here. There’s a lot of reasons to like both Sanders and Gabriel as bets at their current number.
But the award for the biggest long shot that I saw in the guide goes to Mitch Moss, who likes Bengals running back Chase Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year at 200-1.
When teammate Zack Moss went down for the season in Week 8 of 2024, Brown went from a nice handcuff to the clear No. 1 option in the backfield. In the eight games following the injury to Moss, Brown averaged nearly 19 carries per game, 5.5 targets, 23.6 touches, and 116.3 yards. He totaled 11 touchdowns on the season. He’s the every down back on one of the highest-scoring offenses in the entire league with an elite QB. I had to take some of this number.
Plenty more Best Bets from VSiN hosts and writers in the Guide.
MLB Today
Greg Peterson has five Best Bets for today’s MLB menu.
Adam Burke, Steve Makinen and Josh Appelbaum will file their daily contributions later this morning.
Quick Hits
Wimbledon: Zach Cohen posts his daily Best Bets on our tennis page and adds more picks throughout the day on our tennis picks page. That’s also where you will find Gill Alexander‘s plays.
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