While watching the Cubs lose, I was pondering what to write about tonight’s 49ers-Rams game.
How do you size up this matchup when the 49ers have ruled out Brock Purdy and top receivers Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings?
And then at 4:18 p.m. Vegas time, Dave Tuley’s NFL column hit my inbox . . .
Regular readers know I often cite the advanced lines from the week before to see how the marketplace is viewing the two teams, with an eye toward finding where the oddsmakers and/or the public overreacts.
The advanced line on this Thursday nighter was Rams -3.5 before they rallied to beat the Colts on Sunday and the 49ers lost to the Jaguars. That usually wouldn’t cause more than a half-point change in the spread, but San Fran QBs Brock Purdy and Mac Jones were hobbled and the line re-opened Rams -5.5.
That seemed fair, but the line kept creeping higher during the week to -6 and -6.5 and then with the confirmation that Purdy is out and Jones is starting, the line reached -7 (with many books already juicing the chalk) before I started writing this column. It has gone to 7.5 at the majority of books as I’m finishing Wednesday afternoon.
(BREAKING NEWS: and one final check before submitting and it’s at +8 at several books and +8.5 at Circa Sports just after 4 p.m. PT).
Granted, the 49ers have other injuries, but that’s too much of an adjustment in my humble opinion, especially as the Rams’ only win by more than a TD was against the lowly Titans. They tend to play one-score games. Gimme the divisional underdog in prime time.
Best Bet: 49ers +8 or better.
Dave is not alone. VSiN contributor Tyler Shoemaker was ready to fire earlier in the week when the line was at +5.5:
Backup QB Mac Jones has actually outplayed Purdy by virtually every metric this season in filling in for the starter.
In his betting preview, Zach Cohen takes a pass on the side, but offers a prop for your consideration.
Josh Appelbaum’s TNF Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
More MNF resources
>Opta AI prop projections (give the algorithms a little time to process the injury news this morning)
>VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our NFL picks page with plays from hosts and guests.
>NFL Week 5 Hub with stories and resources, including Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report.
MLB Wild-Card finales
It’s Elimination Day for three MLB teams. The Dodgers finished off the Reds last night with an 8-4 victory and a sweep in the Wild-Card round.
Here’s the lineup for today’s Wild-Card Game 3s with odds from Circa:
- Tigers (-102) at Guardians (-110), 3:08 ET (ESPN)
- Padres (-102) at Cubs (-110), 5:08 ET (ABC)
- Red Sox (+140) at Yankees (-156), 8:08 ET (ESPN)
Greg Peterson has picks for all three games. (I like your thinking here, Greg.)
Adam Burke will file his Best Bets and Steve Makinen will have his Analytics Report later this morning.
MLB resources
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our MLB picks page.
CFB Week 6 opener
Sam Houston (-2) at New Mexico State will kick off the Week 6 schedule tonight (9 ET, CBS Sports Network).
I need to give Adam Burke his props because you can tell he is really struggling with this matchup of teams rated No. 130 and No. 131 in his power ratings:
Ugh. Rough one here. My power ratings say New Mexico State -2, but I also had ample value on the Aggies last week against the Lobos and they didn’t cover. Despite my best efforts to adjust the Aggies, I still have them favored here.
Steve Makinen lays off tonight’s game, but posted his Best Bets for the rest of the week.
Wednesday steam alerts from DonBest Sports:
Duke-Cal Under 56.5
Texas A&M -14 vs. Mississippi State
UCLA +25 vs. Penn State
Get these steam alerts and more in real time from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
>CFB Week 6 Hub with stories and resources.
A new VSiN College Football Betting Podcast episode: Tim Murray discusses some “sandwich” spots with VSiN’s Wes Reynolds and Brett Ciancia from PickSix Previews. >Watch. >Listen.
Quick Hits
UFC: With UFC 320 this Saturday, analytics guru Reed Kuhn is the guest on First Strike with Dave Ross and Rob Moreno. Lou Finocchiarro has his plays for the card.
Horse Racing: There are two races Saturday on the Road to the Kentucky Derby — or at least the Road to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Adam Burke handicaps the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and the American Pharoah at Santa Anita. 1/ST BET’s Jeremy Plonk has pick for today’s Woodbine card.
1/ST BET and VSiN have teamed up with an exclusive offer for horse-racing and sports-betting fans. Open and deposit into a new 1/ST BET account and get up to a $250 sign-up bonus with promo code VSIN250. Then, place $100 in wagers within your first 30 days and you’ll unlock a full year of VSiN Pro — a $240 value. Already a VSiN subscriber? We’ll extend your subscription for another year — free. This offer ends Friday, October 5, so don’t wait! Sign up today.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis has posted 32 team previews on our NHL page. The season starts Tuesday.
NBA: Also on Tuesday, the VSiN NBA Betting Guide will be published.
