Michael Penix Jr. to replace Kirk Cousins as Atlanta QB
Michael Penix Jr. will replace Kirk Cousins as Atlanta’s starting QB, coach Raheem Morris announced Tuesday. Even though Cousins struggled in a 15-9 victory over the Raiders on MNF, the market moved from Falcons -10 vs. the Giants to -8.5 at Circa.
More QB updates: The Chiefs were much more optimistic about Patrick Mahomes’ ability to play Saturday vs. the Texans, so KC is back to being the favorite at -2.5 (Circa) or -3 (DK). . . . The Browns will bench Jameis Winston in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson vs. the Bengals (-7.5).
Everything we do on Week 16 is posted here.
Boca Raton and LA Bowl Previews
The bowl games keep on coming with two more today.
Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. James Madison, 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke has our official preview.
And Mike Iavasile, a high school social worker from South Lyon, Mich., provides our VSiN Fan Bowl Preview, presented by Omaha Steaks.
Western Kentucky finished the year 8-5 and earned a trip to the Conference USA Championship game. James Madison finished a respectful 8-5 after a mass exit of players to the transfer portal. In the last 3 weeks, these teams played games averaging over 58 points being scored. Three of these games were into the 60s. The eyeball test and recency bias says this should be an easy Over. According to VSIN’s betting splits, 63% of bets agree and are on the Over. However, a deeper look shows us that there is a chance of 14 MPH winds with rain. We know that wind is a major factor in game totals. Plus the strength of this James Madison team is the defense, 49th in the country and the Western Kentucky offense ranks 150th in the country. To add to all this, James Madison is starting a QB that only has 1 pass attempt this year and 59 in his career. If there is one this VSIN’s Josh Applebaum has taught us it’s that the line should move to where 63% of the bets are. However this total opened 53.5 and has dropped to 51.5. his reverse line movement is due to the sharp split of 37% bets but 71% of the money on the under. Let’s go with under 51 in the Boca Raton Bowl.
More from Mike: Having summers off gives me plenty of time for VSIN. I’ve been watching, listening and reading VSIN daily since 2020. On my yearly trips to Vegas, I was an average sports bettor looking to get rid of my bad habits and VSIN was the answer.
LA Bowl: Cal vs. UNLV, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Adam also previews the LA Bowl.
And Steve Cohen of Dayton, Ohio, has our Fan Bowl Preview.
This is one of the many playoff games that will be heavily impacted by the transfer portal. The Bears lost starting QB Fernando Mendoza and top receiver Nyziah Hunter to the portal. On the Rebels side they lost star wide receiver Ricky White and cornerback Tony Grimes. UNLV will also not have Dave Odom coach the game as he accepted the head coaching role at Matt Youmans’ alma mater Purdue.
What we need to focus on for this game is who is playing and this is where the Rebels have the advantage as Hajj-Malik Williams will be playing and he has been electric since taking over the QB position for UNLV. Williams is a dual threat QB who threw for 1,845 yards and ran for an additional 824 yards on the ground in leading UNLV to be the nations 14th best scoring offense at 36.2 points per game. California was 82nd in the country in scoring with Mendoza/Hunter playing and now the line has moved from the Bears laying 1.5 to UNLV -3 largely due to the Bears portal losses. Take the team with their starting QB intact and a much better supporting cast to playing the game.
The pick here is UNLV -3.
Steve, who is 11th in our Average Joe Contest with a 56-44-4 record, retired a few years ago after 32 years with JPMorgan Chase.
Since my retirement I’ve had a lot more time for my favorite pastime, handicapping games and listening to VSIN. I listen to Follow The Money and A Numbers Game every day. It is great to match my thoughts on games with Pauly, Mitch, Gill, Kelley, and all their guests. I love the content VSIN provides and only wish it was around when I was younger.
Thanks to Omaha Steaks, I’m sending Mike and Steve gift certificates worth more than $275.
Send me your pick with an explanation for one of the bowl or CFP games through Dec. 24. If I pick your pick, the Omaha Steaks are coming your way.
(If you don’t want to submit your pick but Omaha Steaks sound good, you can get $30 off your next order and 50% off sitewide. Visit omahasteaks.com/VSIN and enter the code VSIN30 to get this limited-time offer. Minimum purchase may apply.)
Other bowl resources
>Steve Makinen‘s Best Bets for the week.
>Matchup page: ATS records, advanced stats and Makinen’s estimated scores.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits.
>All of our bowl previews will be posted here along with Makinen’s bowl betting systems.
>Get your VSiN College Football Playoff Betting Guide. There are 27 pages of previews, picks and predictions. Plus Brent Musburger and Steve Makinen pick a side and total for every bowl game. Download the PDF here.
>CFB Picks page with plays from hosts and their guests.
Don’t miss it: The deadline is Thursday for the VSiN Road to Jansanity Contest. It’s free to play and $5,000 goes to the winner. Read the contest rules and then register at VSiN.com/Jansanity.
Today in college basketball
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
>Adam Burke‘s top plays will be up later today.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets by mid-morning.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks by mid-day on our NHL page.
Horse Racing: 1/ST Bet handicapper Jeremy Plonk has picks for Tampa Bay Downs.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Wednesday, December 18. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
