Like many of you, I feel like the Super Bowl blots out everything else for a few weeks.
So while I was waiting out the Daytona 500 rain delay, I caught up on some of the VSiN.com stories that I didn’t get to feature in the newsletter during that busy time.
One of them was Steve Makinen’s analysis of the DraftKings betting splits for college basketball. This seems especially relevant because the run of 31 conference basketball tournaments is just two weeks away.
To summarize Steve’s findings bluntly, DraftKings bettors — when they are in the majority of money or bets wagering on spreads, moneyline or totals — lose more often than they win.
Steve goes into more specific situations to uncover betting situations when you should considering fading the majority.
For example, DK bettors have been particularly bad on Thursdays this season:
- Thursday majority handle on point spreads: 199-233 ATS (46.1%), -57.3 units – ROI: -13.3%
- Thursday majority number of bets on point spreads: 202-228 ATS (47%), -48.8 units – ROI: -11.3%
- Thursday majority handle on money lines: 276-168 (62.2%). -127.58 units – ROI: -28.7%
- Thursday majority number of bets on money lines: 285-159 (64.2%). -115.15 units – ROI: -25.9%
Steve has a theory for this:
This may seem random, but typically, much of the Thursday lineup involves West Coast teams and conferences, and perhaps even more mid-majors, which the public bettors may know less about. This could be an area to watch more closely (and fade) as the season winds down. If you’re wondering, the day of the week in which bettors have fared best has been Sundays, but nowhere near the definitive level of their Thursday struggles.
Steve did manage to find some situations where DK bettors were in the plus-money.
>DraftKIngs/Circa Betting Splits.
Other college hoops resources
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
Adam Burke will post his top plays later this morning. So will Tyler Shoemaker.
As well as Josh Appelbaum‘s Sharp Report.
>Makinen’s power ratings with estimated scores
Listen now: Greg’s daily podcast handicapping every game on the menu every day.
Quick Hits
NHL: The 4 Nations Face-Off resumes today (1 p.m. ET) with Canada needing a win over Finland in regulation to earn the other spot in the finals. Look for Jonathan Davis’ pick later today.
Win Some/Lose Some: Austin Cindric, who had the top spot in Steve Makinen’s Daytona 500 race simulation at +2000, was leading in the final lap before a crash took him out. (William Byron, second in the simulation, won at +1500.) . . . . Congrats to Long Shots podcast hosts Matt Brown and Kelley Bydlon for having Ludvig Aberg at +2800 in the Genesis Open. VSiN By The Book host Dave Ross had him, too.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Monday, February 17. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
