Cowboys at Bears, 4:25 p.m. ET
It’s America’s team vs. Chicago’s team, although I’m not sure how much longer the Bears will have that title given that Soldier Field fans were already booing them in the season opener.
But that’s the whole point of Steve Makinen’s analysis of the Cowboys (-1.5/-1) at Bears (4:25 ET, Fox) for NFL Week 3:
It should become an annual ritual for NFL bettors in Week 3. After two games, look for the team that has been most dragged through the mud by fans, experts, and oddsmakers alike, and bet that team, regardless of the line.
For 2025, that team has to be Chicago. After melting down in their Monday night opener loss to the Vikings, the Bears were throttled at Detroit. It has become a “sky is falling” scenario. One thing I know about the NFL, however, is that things are usually never as good, nor ever as bad, as they might seem, and that every game is unique to itself.
Not surprisingly, the money at public betting home DraftKings has been all over Dallas for Sunday’s tilt, 77% of the money and 83% of the bets. As such, NFL DK Betting Splits system #1 says that over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%). In other words, if you see over 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
Never mind last Sunday’s ugly defensive loss to the Lions, as that game destroyed Chicago’s defensive numbers. Teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 27-16 SU and 28-15 ATS (65.1%) since 2015. It’s not like Dallas is very good defensively either, having allowed 30.5 PPG in its 1-1 start.
Best Bet: Let’s go Bears +1.5, who have shifted to home dog since opening as chalk.
FYI: Steve relies on his Week 3 “Trap” Betting Systems and his Analytics Report to come up with his picks, so you might want to check those out, too.
Matt Youmans has a play on the Total in the Cowboys-Bears game and many more.
Other Week 3 Best Bets columns:
Plus Josh Appelbaum‘s NFL Sharp Report will arrive later this morning.
Of course, VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our NFL picks page with all the plays from hosts and guests this week.
New player prop tools
We have two new resources to help you with player props:
Opta AI Player Projections: VSiN has partnered with Opta AI to produce QB, RB and WR projections. You can compare the projections to the DraftKings Sportsbook prop lines to find value. Sort by stats and biggest differences between the projection and the line. >>Go here.
Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool: We have a sortable chart showing how wide receivers match up against cornerbacks each week. It highlights where WRs line up, who’s covering them and whether the matchup is favorable. You can use it to find edges in player props, game totals and parlays. >>Go here.
Plus we still have the NFL Prop Analyzer.
Check out our NFL Week 3 Hub with stories and resources, including First TD handicapping and player prop advice from Adam Burke and kicking props from Pauly Howard.
Week 3 resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
>Injury Report: ICYMI – J.J. McCarthy (ankle), Jayden Daniels (knee), Justin Fields (concussion) and Brock Purdy (toe) are out.
Much to the dismay of a lot of Circa Survivor and Grandissimo contestants (see next item), the Seahawks late Saturday afternoon added WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to their injury report as questionable with an illness.
Circa Football contest selections
As they are every week, the consensus picks for the three Circa contests were revealed on Saturday night on The Football Contest Show (9-10 ET):
>Circa Survivor: The Seahawks (vs. Saints) were the most popular pick with 6,655 (39.3%). The Bills were the second choice, so 3,362 entries are already through. There were 13 no-picks and 1 entry on the Dolphins, leaving 16,938 live entries.
>Circa Grandissimo: The Seahawks also were the top pick in the $100,000-per-entry survivor contest with 20 (29.4%). There were 19 entries on the Bills, so there are still 68 live.
>Circa Million: The Chargers (-2.5 vs. the Broncos) were the top pick with 1,937 entries, followed by the Cowboys (-1 at Bears) with 1,642.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selectons, plus contest selections and leaderboards for the Circa Friday Football Invitational and EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest.
Quick Hits
MLB: Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s MLB menu. Steve Makinenwill post his Analytics Report later this morning.
Horse Racing: “Mr. Ed” Sehon has plays for today’s Churchill Downs card. Horse racing coverage is sponsored by 1/ST BET. Get your $250 sign-up bonus.
NASCAR: Steve Makinen has posted his final simulation for today’s race at New Hampshire and shared his picks:
Top 5: Blaney, Hamlin, Logano, Wallace, Larson
Top underdogs to consider: Berry, Gibbs, Allmendinger, Keselowski, Hocevar
Favorites to struggle: Bowman, Cindric, Chastain, Busch
Soccer: Nigel Seeley has his top plays for this weekend’s EPL menu.
