NFL Week 6 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Let’s take a look at my NFL Week 6 best bets and predictions:

 

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Jacksonville vs. Chicago (-1; 44.5) 

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET – London, England (NFL)

The Jacksonville Jaguars were the last team to finally get into the win column last week with a 37-34 victory over the Colts. Jacksonville had a 34-20 lead with five minutes to go and blew the lead until a Cam Little field goal gave the Jaguars the victory in the final seconds.

The good news for Jacksonville is that they had nearly 500 yards of offense and did not allow a sack of Trevor Lawrence, who had his best game of the season, throwing for 371 yards. Lawrence is unlikely to duplicate those numbers against a better Bears defense (second in Pass D DVOA), although safety Jaquan Brisker and corner Tyrique Stevenson are likely to miss here. The Jaguars are getting a little healthier on offense with the likely return of TE Evan Engram and the developing chemistry between Lawrence and rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. Plus, the Bears rank 30th in Rush D DVOA. The Jaguars are starting to get more explosive plays in the running game, especially with Tank Bigsby, who scored on a 65-yard run last week and had a 58-yarder the week prior at Houston.

Jacksonville still has plenty of issues (secondary and pass rush specifically), but this is more of a sell against an overpriced Bears team that should be 1-4. Just two weeks ago, the Bears were laying just -3 against the Rams JV that was missing Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and almost its entire starting OL. Chicago did get the win and cover but was outgained in the game.

The Jaguars finally got the monkey off their back and now go to their home away from home in London, where they swept their International Series games last year and can perhaps play a bit more loose. They are used to this trip and the environment. Rookie Caleb Williams is not, and rookie QBs have not succeeded in the International Series.

Williams will be the sixth QB to start an International Series game. The five QBs that started before him are 0-5 SU and ATS.

2021 Zach Wilson, Jets vs. ATL, +3, L 27-20
2019 Gardner Minshew, Jaguars vs. HOU, -1 L 26-3
2017 Deshone Kizer, Browns vs. MIN, +11 L 33-16
2014 Blake Bortles, Jaguars vs. DAL, +7.5 L 31-17
2012 Derek Carr, Raiders vs. MIA, +4 L 38-14

While Williams gradually makes incremental improvements, the Bears are not yet who some in the market think they are.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars +1

Houston (-7; 37.5) at New England

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Rookie Drake Maye is finally getting the start at QB for New England. Granted, it is not the best of circumstances considering the Patriots’ OL ranks dead last in pass-block win rate. But Maye is a better scrambler and runner than Jacoby Brissett at this point and was used to being pressured extensively during his career at North Carolina. Plus, Maye can clearly get the ball down the field better than Brissett, and there is a bit of an element of surprise that Houston will face with not a great deal of film on the rookie. Maye Over Passing Yards (as low as 160.5 in the market currently) could also be worth a look here, especially with the Patriots not likely to be as run-heavy without Rhamondre Stevenson in the lineup.

Meanwhile, Houston is a bit of a ‘smoke and mirrors’ 4-1 on the season. The Texans rank 31st in early downs success rate (only ahead of Deshaun Watson and Cleveland), and it will not get much easier with top receiver Nico Collins now on IR and Tank Dell still working his way back from various injuries. Running back Joe Mixon looks like a go, so this number on early downs should improve.

CJ Stroud is just 4-9 ATS in his one and a third seasons as a favorite, which drops to 2-7 ATS as a favorite of 3+ points.

Houston has not been any great shakes on the road barely beating Indianapolis in the opener in what was Anthony Richardson’s first game back from injury and were blown out at Minnesota.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: New England Patriots +7

Tampa Bay (-3.5; 41.5) at New Orleans

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

After a 2-0 start, the Saints were prematurely being compared to the Rams “Greatest Show on Turf” from an offensive standpoint. Now New Orleans has lost three in a row and will be without QB Derek Carr (oblique), and will be starting rookie Spencer Rattler.

Granted, there is always a drop-off from a veteran to a rookie, but this line was New Orleans -2.5 on the look-ahead, and now the Saints are getting +3.5? Is Derek Carr really worth six points at this stage of his career and behind an OL that has been banged up anyway?

Rattler can actually move in and out of the pocket, which Carr struggles doing. Tampa also has its own OL issues with two starters likely out. They are up against a Saints team that ranks Top 10 in pressure rate and off a disappointing effort at Kansas City, giving up 460 yards of total offense to the Chiefs.

The Bucs come in with the rest advantage, but Baker Mayfield has actually struggled in that role (8-11 SU, 7-12 ATS). He is also just 15-27 ATS as a favorite, while his head coach Todd Bowles is just 8-15 ATS as a favorite of three or more.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: New Orleans Saints +3.5

PROPS:

Calvin Ridley (Tennessee) Over 44.5 Receiving Yards vs. Indianapolis

Ridley amassed seven catches for 127 yards in his first two games (at Chicago, vs. NY Jets), but has been held to just two receptions for 14 yards in his last two games (vs. Green Bay, at Miami). This is a good buy-low spot here against a banged-up Colts defense that ranks 27th in pass-rush win rate and the same Gus Bradley defense that plays zone at the fourth-highest rate in the league and rarely, if ever, disguises coverages.

Receivers lined up out wide have had monster games of late against this Colts secondary:
Week 1: Nico Collins (HOU) – 6 catches, 117 yards
Week 3: Rome Odunze (CHI) – 6 catches, 112 yards
Week 4: George Pickens (PIT) – 7 catches, 113 yards
Week 5: Brian Thomas Jr (JAC) – 5 catches, 122 yards

Titans head coach Brian Callahan has talked about getting Ridley more involved this week, and the Colts are the perfect defense for him to follow through with his words.

TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati/ NY Giants UNDER 47.5

TEASER OF THE WEEK
Baltimore -0.5/Las Vegas +9

BEST OF THE REST
Carolina +6 vs. Atlanta
Dallas +3.5 (-120) vs. Detroit

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