Week 18 is all about the playoff scenarios and what we are watching in terms of division races and seeding. But, for us here at VSiN, Week 18 is also the deciding week for our Top 100 NFL Futures Draft.
You may remember what we did back in August with a special edition of Follow The Money, as 10 of our hosts participated in an NFL Futures Draft, selecting four win totals (two Over, two Under), two division winners, two player props, and a couple of season stat leaders. As we head into the final 16 games of the regular season, the season stat leaders are the ones that will determine our winner. I wrote a midseason update during Week 10 to see how things were going and Week 18 will decide all 100 wagers.
It is important to remember that because this was a draft, our hosts weren’t able to play all of their favorite props because those drafting before them took some of those picks. That led to a little bit of “settling” at times with some of these wagers, especially with the time limit.
Current VSiN Top 100 NFL Futures Draft Standings
Matt Youmans (VSiN Primetime): +$875
Tim Murray (VSiN Primetime): +$30
Dave Ross (VSiN By The Books): -$175
Stormy Buonantony (Money Moves): -$305
Jensen Lewis (VSiN By The Books): -$335
Patrick Meagher (VSiN Live on Mad Dog Radio): -$425
Jonathan Von Tobel (Money Moves): -$520
Mitch Moss (Follow The Money): -$630
Pauly Howard (Follow The Money): -$680
Gill Alexander (A Numbers Game): -$860
There are still 13 pending wagers for Week 18. Let’s look at all 10 picks from the participants and see which ones are going to decide the winner.
Note: all bets based on $100 (either to win $100 or risk $100)
Matt Youmans (+$875)
Winners
- Broncos to win AFC West (+275)
- Browns Under 5.5 Wins (-140)
- Broncos Over 9.5 Wins (-110)
- Steelers Over 8.5 Wins (-115)
- Patriots to win AFC East (+500)
- Chiefs Under 11.5 Wins (-120)
Losers
- Joe Burrow Passing Yards Leader (+500)
- Ashton Jeanty Over 1050.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Burrow NFL Pass TD Leader (+550)
Pending
- Josh Jacobs Over 1050.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
With Jacobs unlikely to play much here in Week 18, Youmans looks to have locked in a 6-4 effort with a big 5/1 price on the Patriots and a nice +275 on the Broncos as the two big cashes. Jacobs needs 122 rushing yards to get Over that number.
Tim Murray (+$30)
Winners
- Bengals Under 9.5 Wins (+100)
- Dak Prescott Over 4000 Passing Yards (+100)
- Jaguars Over 8.5 Wins (+140)
- 49ers Over 10.5 Wins (+110)
Losers
- Ja’Marr Chase Receiving Yards Leader (+600)
- Vikings to win NFC North (+300)
- Breece Hall Under 900.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- Brock Bowers Receptions Leader (10/1)
Pending
- Jaguars to win AFC South (+300)
- Eagles Under 11.5 Wins (-130)
The correlated outcomes on the Jaguars may turn this into a profitable endeavor for Murray, so long as they don’t slip up as a big favorite against the Titans. That should be a solid cash, and we’ll see if the Eagles, who are resting a lot of players, drop the finale to the Commanders.
Dave Ross (-$175)
Winners
- Seahawks Over 8.5 Wins (+120)
- George Pickens Over 5.5 Receiving TD (+100)
- Commanders Under 9.5 Wins (+105)
Losers
- Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards Leader (11/1)
- Cowboys Over 8.5 Wins (+120)
- Malik Nabers Over 1150.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Cowboys to win NFC East (+550)
- Rams Under 8.5 Wins (+200)
Pending
- Dak Prescott Passing Yards Leader (+850)
- Seahawks to win NFC West (+550)
Prescott enters Week 18 with the lead in passing yards over Matthew Stafford. Barring a remarkable effort from Jared Goff, Prescott’s only competition is Stafford. The Seahawks are also plenty live to win the NFC West and those two long shots coming through would make Dave the winner at +$1225.
Stormy Buonantony (-$305)
Winners
- Panthers Over 6.5 Wins (-130)
- Cardinals Under 8.5 Wins (+105)
Losers
- Chiefs to win AFC West (-120)
- Ashton Jeanty 10+ Rushing TDs (+140)
- Titans Over 5.5 Wins (-170)
- Garrett Wilson Over 925.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Pending
- 49ers to win AFC West (+150)
- Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Leader (10/1)
- Jared Goff Passing Yards Leader (12/1)
- Packers Under 9.5 Wins (+100)
A lot still hangs in the balance for Stormy, as Taylor has 1,559 yards and James Cook has 1,606. The Bills are playing for seeding this weekend, but how much will they want to put Cook at risk? Considering they already have a hobbled Josh Allen, Stormy may hit the big 10/1 shot here, along with the 49ers. It doesn’t look like enough to win, but still would make for a fine showing. Goff trails the passing yards leader by 249 yards going into Week 18, so that one is a very, very long shot.
Patrick Meagher (-$325)
Winners
- Texans Over 10.5 Wins (+180)
- Puka Nacua Over 5.5 Receiving TDs (-150)
Losers
- Rams to win NFC West (+195)
- Patriots Under 7.5 Wins (+150)
- Packers Over 10.5 Wins (+155)
- Steelers Under 8.5 Wins (-105)
- Baker Mayfield Passing TD Leader (+950)
- Drake London Over 1125.5 Receiving Yards (-100)
Pending
- Texans to win AFC South (+105)
- Jonathan Taylor Rush TD Leader (13/1)
That big 13/1 ticket looks like it will hit for Meagher, as Taylor leads Derrick Henry by two scores. Obviously Henry will get a full workload with Baltimore’s playoff hopes on the line, but Taylor should also get a good workload for the Colts in their season finale with Riley Leonard at QB. It seems unlikely that the Texans win the AFC South, but a 13/1 cash would have Meagher at +$875 when all the dust settles.
Jensen Lewis (-$335)
Winners
- Giants Under 5.5 Wins (-105)
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 1075.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Eagles Over 10.5 Wins (-180)
- Jets Under 6.5 Wins (-145)
Losers
- Bills to win AFC East (-310)
- Brian Thomas Jr. Over 1150.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Ravens Over 11.5 Wins (-115)
- Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Leader (12/1)
- Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Leader (+550)
Pending
- Ravens to win AFC North (-165)
Lewis laying the heavy chalk on the Bills proved to be his downfall, as his chances of a profitable draft class took a big hit with Buffalo’s good, but not good enough, season.
Jonathan Von Tobel (-$520)
Winners
- Eagles to win NFC East (-135)
- Joe Burrow Under 4150.5 Passing Yards (+100)
Losers
- Dolphins Under 6.5 Wins (+170)
- Brock Bowers Over 1000.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- Brian Thomas Jr. Receiving Yards Leader (13/1)
- Texans Under 8.5 Wins (+150)
- Chargers to win AFC West (+350)
- Jets Over 6.5 Wins (+120)
- Bills Over 13.5 Wins (+255)
Pending
- Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Leader (+400)
Even an enormous week from Henry won’t be enough to put Von Tobel in the black with his draft class. Going against the grain with the plus-money prices with a reversal of where the Dolphins and Jets wound up didn’t work out, but Miami did start 1-6, so that one looked good for a while.
Mitch Moss (-$630)
Winners
- Tetairoa McMillan Over 900.5 Receiving Yards (+170)
Losers
- Bears Under 7.5 Wins (+145)
- Falcons Over 8.5 Wins (+125)
- Cardinals to win NFC West (+425)
- Bucky Irving Over 1250 Rushing Yards (+275)
- Commanders to win NFC East (+220)
- CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Leader (10/1)
- Vikings Over 9.5 Wins (+105)
- Drake London Receiving Yards Leader (15/1)
Pending
- Bills Under 11.5 Wins (+145)
Risk and reward are two main considerations in this type of format and Moss’ risks with taking all plus-money prices did not yield the reward. It is surprising that George Pickens became Dak Prescott’s WR1 this season; not sure anybody saw that coming.
Paul Howard (-$680)
Winners
- Lions Under 10.5 Wins (-130)
Losers
- Saints Under 5.5 Wins (-165)
- Packers to win NFC North (+240)
- Buccaneers Over 9.5 Wins (-105)
- Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (+100)
- DK Metcalf 1000+ Receiving Yards (+100)
- Jayden Daniels Over 3450.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Cam Ward Passing Interceptions Leader (+900)
Pending
- Buccaneers to win NFC South (+110)
- Derrick Henry Rushing TDs Leader (+450)
Injuries and bad luck definitely played a big role in Howard’s outcomes. The Bucs have been hurt all year. Metcalf maybe goes Over that number without his two-game suspension. Daniels was hurt. But, those things happen and that’s why two-way markets or looking at Unders are important.
Gill Alexander (-$860)
Winners
- Vikings Under 9.5 Wins (-125)
Losers
- Falcons to win NFC South (+240)
- Ja’Marr Chase Receiving TDs Leader (+600)
- Lions to win NFC North (+160)
- Joe Burrow Over 4150.5 Passing Yards (-120)
- Joe Burrow Over 33.5 Passing TDs (-115)
- Colts Under 6.5 Wins (+150)
- Cardinals Over 8.5 Wins (-125)
- Trey Hendrickson Sacks Leader (11/1)
- Commanders Over 9.5 Wins (-125)
The eggs in the Burrow basket broke very early in the season, dooming Gill’s draft class. Similarly, Daniels going down and then Daniel Jones playing more like 2024 Daniels was just unfair.
There are some good learnings here:
First, don’t be afraid to play player prop Unders. Injuries happen and those numbers can be artificially inflated because the sportsbooks know that the masses are more likely to take Overs than Unders with those, whether it comes from a fan standpoint, a fantasy football standpoint, or just the inherent notion of wanting to root for something to happen instead of rooting against something happening.
Second, you truly are throwing darts with the stat leader props. It takes a lot for those to come through, including the health of that player and the players around them. If you take a QB stat leader in passing yards or passing TDs, they need to stay healthy, but so do their top targets. Similarly, if you take a RB to lead in something, he needs to stay healthy and it helps a lot if the offensive line, QB, and other skill guys stay healthy, too. It was a category that our hosts had to pick from, but you can see how high-variance that market can be.
Third, the “minus” outcomes aren’t sexy, but they are more likely to happen. With the “Parlay Generation”, everybody likes betting a little to win a lot. Or betting less to win more, as the thought process goes with plus-money odds. You can obviously pick your spots to take a swing, but the more big swings, the more misses.
