WNBA Rookie of the Year and Championship Futures:
Since Wednesday’s games are all early in the day, I gave out those projections and bets yesterday, so make sure to check those out. Hopefully, most people took advantage of those yesterday against softer lines. Today, I want to examine the futures market, particularly the Rookie of the Year race and some championship angles you could potentially take to add to your WNBA portfolio.
Rookie of the Year
Rookie phenom and national celebrity Caitlin Clark is -500 to win the award, so she’s a lock to win it, right? RIGHT? I’m not entirely sold (although I’m a huge fan) on her being a slam dunk to win it. With Angel Reese’s +290 odds, I would say she’s a better bet from a value perspective. Reese was just awarded player (not rookie) of the month in the conference and is leading the entire league in rebounding while being worth 2 points more to the spread than Clark is, per my T Shoe Index.
I think the knock on Reese is that her game is not as aesthetically pleasing as Clark’s, which is a beautiful, spectacular brand of basketball but has led to just 39% shooting from the field and 5.5 turnovers per game to go with her 16/7/6. Reese is averaging 14/12/2 with 1.5 steals and 0.5 blocks and only 1.8 turnovers. Look, do I think Caitlin Clark is a better basketball player than Angel Reese? Yes. But awards betting/voting is not about who is better. It’s about who is more deserving. This could come down to whose team ends up with more wins and/or in/out of the playoffs, but I don’t think there should be a -500 favorite to win Rookie of the Year when there’s a fully capable contender in Reese.
WNBA Rookie of the Year best value: Angel Reese +290
Championship Futures
One market that I particularly found interesting in looking at futures angles was the “Yes/No” market for the championship. The back-to-back champion and #1 TSI-rated Aces are +165 for “Yes” and -200 for “No.” I think taking plus-money on the Aces in any capacity is a smart bet, but if you’re sold on the Liberty or maybe the Lynx or Sun to be able to de-throne A’ja Wilson and company, there is plus-money to be had there, also. The Liberty are +175, the Lynx are +575 and the Sun are +950, not to mention the Storm at +900. There are plenty of options depending on your analysis of the season, but through the lens of the TSI, I think the Aces at +175 is about as good as it gets.
WNBA Championship best value: Las Vegas Aces +175
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