WNBA Best Bets:
Stop the count! We went 1-0 last night to bring us to 6-2 in our last 8 plays, coinciding with a formula tweak on my part after a pretty bad stretch right after the Olympic break. We are back Wednesday with a full slate of action and projections on them all, of course.
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Let’s get right to it. Here are tonight’s projections and bets from the T Shoe Index:
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun
Indiana remains on an upward trajectory as Caitlin Clark all but has Rookie of the Year in the bag at this point. The bigger question is probably what all-league team she will end up on. Connecticut recently beat the #1 Liberty and is feeling rejuvenated after the break and the acquisition of sharpshooter Marina Mabrey. The Sun are 3.5-point favorites with an Over/Under set at 165 in this game, while TSI projects Sun -2 with a total of 165. Not much value to be had here, but most of my formulas indicate this game could go under the total, so I’ll be hoping the line sneaks up closer to 166 or so, and I might make a play. As it stands, nothing official from me.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away at current numbers
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics
Two of the more scrappy teams in the league will face off Wednesday in the Sky and Mystics/ Chicago will be without rising star Chennedy Carter, putting more of the offensive onus on Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso inside. Chicago opened as a small favorite before the Carter news and is now a 2.5-point underdog at home. Even adjusting for the Carter absence, I’d still make Chicago about a half-point favorite here with a total of 161, while the O/U market sits at 160. This is a stay-away for me unless the line climbed to a point where I couldn’t refuse Chicago. Currently, it’s tight enough that I’m going to pass since Chicago has not looked great without Carter in the lineup.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away at current numbers
LA Sparks vs. New York Liberty
The poor Sparks just scored 110 points in a game and LOST! Meanwhile, the Liberty are clearly the best team in the league right now, as indicated by the 13.5-point spread in this game, with the Over/Under set at 166. TSI projects New York -11 with a total of 162.5. With the way New York has been playing defense and the likelihood that LA can repeat last game’s offensive outburst, I think I’m going to play an Under here. The question is how high will this total go after being bet up from 163?Â
WNBA Best Bet: Under 166 or better
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx
Don’t look now, but the Lynx are coming off a win against the Aces this week and look to be able to beat anyone in the W as the playoffs approach. Meanwhile, Phoenix came out of the Olympic break red hot but has returned to Earth slightly. They are still playing much better than their season-long rating, so they are certainly dangerous. Minnesota is up to a 4.5-point favorite here with an Over/Under of 162.5, while TSI has the Lynx -3 with a total of 157.5. Minnesota has a top-3 defense and both of these offenses are middle-of-the-pack in TSI offensive ratings, so I love this Under.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 162.5 (Play to 160.5)
Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream
Seattle is coming off a loss to the Mystics (!!). Atlanta is coming off a loss to the Caitlin-Clark-led Fever. Which team is best positioned to bounce back tonight? The market is saying Seattle, betting them from -7.5 to -8.5, with an Over/Under of 155.5, down from 158. TSI says Seattle -6 with a total of 157.5 in this one, with most of my formulas actually being in the low 150s, so I loved the under shortly after opening, but at this point, I’d stay away, as it looks like it’s going to land in no-man’s-land between where my formulas project this game. My lean would be the Dream +8, but it’s not official.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Atlanta Dream +8
