WNBA Best Bets for Friday, August 4
Connecticut Sun -7.5 at Indiana Fever, 161.5
The last time these teams played was all the way back on May 30th, a game the Sun won but the Fever covered as 12-point road dogs. Since then, the Sun (19-7 SU, 14-11-1 ATS) have confidently claimed a top-three spot in the league while the Fever (7-19 SU, 12-12-2 ATS) saw a burst of convincing covers before losing NaLyssa Smith ahead of the All-Star break. With Smith out, and Aliyah Boston seeing more defensive attention, the Fever have now lost and failed to cover four of their last five games and sit at dead last in net rating in that span. The Sun recently suffered an unfortunate loss to the Lynx (even with no Napheesa Collier in the mix), but they were able to win the second matchup. The Sun should be able to win this road matchup and have gone 8-4 ATS on the road this season.
Indiana has also seen four straight Unders and some scoring droughts, while Connecticut has had occasional offensive output issues of their own. I expect the Fever will continue struggling to score, and though their lackluster defense may allow the Sun to score easily, I’ll still look to the Under here.
Under 161.5
Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics -3.5, 158.5
This will be the first time the Sparks play the Mystics this season, and unfortunately, both teams find themselves in similar boats. Both teams have been gutted by injuries this season and are currently shorthanded. Washington (12-13 SU, 12-13 ATS) has now lost three straight games and eight of their last eleven, while the Sparks (9-17 SU, 10-14-2 ATS) have lost 10 of their last 12 and are 1.5 games behind the Sky for the last playoff spot. However, the Mystics are 7-1 ATS at home this season, while the Sparks have yet to cover a road spread this season.
The Mystics have been without Elena Delle Donne for the last eight games, and in her absence, Brittney Sykes has stepped up and is averaging 20.1 points per game. With Ariel Atkins, Shakira Austin, and Kristi Toliver also out, Sykes has plenty of opportunities to score. Sykes was also on Sparks for three seasons before joining the Mystics this year and should be able to wreak some havoc on her former team.
Mystics -3.5
Brittney Sykes Over 16.5 Points
Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings -9.5, 164.5
Currently, the Sky have one of the healthiest rosters in the league, while the Wings may be without starter and facilitator, Crystal Dangerfield (questionable). Dallas (15-11 SU, 13-12-1 ATS) is now 8-4 ATS at home this season and has only lost three of their last 12 games (once to the Sun and twice to the Aces.) They also boast the third-best offensive rating in the league and lead the league in offensive rebounding percentage.
Chicago (10-15 SU, 13-10-2 ATS) faltered after the departure of their former head coach, but lately have won two of their last four games and covered three (although three of the games were against bottom-tier teams: Mercury, Storm twice). The last time they played Dallas was on May 30th, a game they won and covered as three-point favorites, 94-88. Both these teams are at their best when playing fast, but we have seen a slowdown in pace from both teams in the past month. The Wings rolled through July, but I could see the Sky giving them a closer game than expected.
Lean Chicago Sky +9.5
New York Liberty -10.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 167.5
These teams just played on July 28th, and the Lynx (13-14 SU, 15-11-1 ATS) won outright, 88-83, as 13.5-point underdogs. However, the Liberty (20-6 SU, 10-16 ATS) were in a back-to-back spot and rested their point guard, Courtney Vandersloot, for the night. Now they can get their revenge.
The Lynx have now won and covered four straight games, two of which were wins over top opponents (Liberty, Sun) despite them being double-digit underdogs in both games. Minnesota has looked strong and steady despite missing their captain and top scorer, Napheesa Collier, for the past three games. However, the Lynx frontcourt could be even thinner with Dorka Juhasz also listed as doubtful while she deals with a hamstring injury following Tuesday’s loss to Connecticut. If Dorka can go, the Lynx could pull off another double-digit cover at home, but feel free to wait for a better number in game.
