WNBA Best Bets:
What a disaster of a day yesterday was from a betting perspective. I went 0-for. I don’t even know the last time that happened, but I’m as open and honest about the losses and bad days as I am about the wins and the good days. It happens. Before that, we were on a 19-5 run with our WNBA best bets, so regression was bound to strike. Nonetheless, we have two games left in the WNBA before the Olympic break will have the league paused for a month, which will be a nice time for me to analyze some results and trends and hope to come back firing on all cylinders after the break.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
Here are Wednesday’s projections:
Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream
Minnesota is limping to the break, literally, with star forward Napheesa Collier having missed the last handful of games with a foot injury. The Lynx have not been the same without her. Meanwhile, Atlanta has been a very up-and-down, inconsistent team dealing with various injuries in their own right. Minnesota is favored by 8 at home with an Over/Under of 153, while TSI projects Lynx -8 with a total of 148.5. Given how yesterday’s pre-break games played out, I’m reluctant to play an under, but the numbers are the numbers. This line is inching up, so be patient and get the best number.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 153 or better
Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever
You know the meme of the security guard who barely pats people down before allowing them access to the venue? That’s the Wings’ defense lately. While Caitlin Clark and the Fever are the team trending most positively lately relative to their season-long ratings, their defense isn’t anything to write home about, so this one should be extremely points-y. If you’re following me on X @TShoeIndex, you know I gave out this Over at 173.5 yesterday, and now the total sits at 177, with Indiana laying 3.5 points on the road. TSI projects Indiana -4.5 with a total of 179.5, so somehow, there’s still a bit of value on the over. It wouldn’t be a best bet for me at this number but still definitely a lean.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Over 177
Final TSI Ratings before the Olympic break
| Team | TSI Rating |
| Las Vegas Aces | 7.9 |
| New York Liberty | 6.5 |
| Connecticut Sun | 5.3 |
| Seattle Storm | 4.2 |
| Minnesota Lynx | 2.1 |
| Phoenix Mercury | 0.2 |
| Indiana Fever | -0.8 |
| Washington Mystics | -2.1 |
| Chicago Sky | -2.1 |
| Los Angeles Sparks | -3.9 |
| Atlanta Dream | -3.9 |
| Dallas Wings | -7.2 |
For all of my prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get the real time updates from me on all things WNBA.
