WNBA Best Bets:

New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx (+3.5; 160.5)

It’s been a thrilling WNBA playoffs, specifically the Finals. This best-of-five series is knotted up at 1-1 as the series shifts from New York to Minnesota now for Games 3 and 4. A scrappy Minnesota team is a miraculous comeback away from being down 0-2. Will they recapture that magic from Game 1, or will the Liberty assert their will and take hold of the series on the road? 

I think that largely depends on the play of Minnesota guard Kayla McBride, who was 4/7 from three-point range in Game 1, good for 22 points, in a Lynx overtime win. However, in Game 2, McBride posted just 8 points on 3/9 shooting. Napheesa Collier is holding up her end of the bargain, averaging 18.5 points and 8 rebounds per game in these WNBA Finals, but will need help from McBride and the supporting cast to get a win over a talented Liberty team. The X-factor on the other side is Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, who had 20/2/2 in the Game 2 win on 4/6 shooting from 3, but in Game 1 had just 5 points on 2/7 shooting. The star trio of Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones have all produced, but they will need to be more efficient and get help from Laney-Hamilton to take control of this series. 

 

New York is a 3.5-point road favorite in Game 3, with an Over/Under set at 160.5, while TSI projects Liberty -2.5 with a total of 160. Not surprisingly, very little value is to be had in a standalone, high-stakes game like this; however, my lean would be to Minnesota here at home. In the previous five matchups, New York holds a slight one-point-per-game advantage, but all of those games have been in New York. This Minnesota crowd will be fired up to cheer on Collier and the Lynx against the most talented team in the W. The key number for this game is 70: if the Lynx score 70+ points, they have a chance to win. Minnesota failed to hit that mark in the previous losses to the Liberty, but in each win, they were into the high 80s. There’s not enough of a quantitative edge for me to bet on this, but I’d lean Lynx +3.5.

WNBA Best Bet: Lean Minnesota Lynx +3.5

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