WNBA Best Bets, Odds, and Predictions for September 10

WNBA Best Bets:

We are currently on a 10-5 WNBA best bets run right now, and after a day off yesterday, I’m excited to get back in the saddle with some late-season action tonight, which features a three-game slate of contenders vs. bottom-dwellers. The Atlanta Dream will host the Minnesota Lynx, the Dallas Wings host the New York Liberty, and the LA Sparks host the Connecticut Sun.

Let’s take a look at today’s TSI projections to see where we can find some value on tonight’s menu:

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Here are tonight’s projections:

Atlanta Dream vs Minnesota Lynx

While it looked like Atlanta would be taking a step forward with the return of Rhyne Howard after the Olympic break, they’ve regressed back to the mean and are just 2-6 in their last eight games, averaging just 80 points per game, which is below league average. Minnesota hasn’t been as dominant lately as they were early in the season, with a two-point difference between their last five games’ rating and their season-long rating, despite being 10-1 in their last 11 games – which is the beauty of power ratings. They see past the W/L column.

Minnesota is a five-point favorite on the road, with an Over/Under of 158.5 and TSI projects Minnesota -3.5 with a total of 152.5, indicating significant value on the Under. I like this play because both teams have shown a propensity to go Under the total, as the Under is 40-30-1 in these teams’ games. In three head-to-head matchups this season, the average combined score is just 153.

Bet: Under 158.5 (Play to 157.5)

Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty

Oh, Dallas. A team I had such high hopes for has just been utterly disappointing, albeit entertaining. They host the Liberty, who are fresh off a win over the A’ja Wilson-less Aces over the weekend, and are by far the #1 team in my ratings. The Liberty are 9.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 173 and TSI projects NY -11.5 with a total of 174.5. I loved this Over yesterday when it was around 170, but it’s come up too much for me to feel comfortable playing it, so we’ll play the side instead, as NY has won the two previous matchups by an average of 14 points. Also, looking at the home/away splits for these teams, NY is 12-5 ATS on the road while Dallas is just 5-12 ATS at home. 

Bet: Liberty -9.5 (Play to 10)

Los Angeles Sparks vs Connecticut Sun

I feel like I bet the Under on one or more of these teams daily, for whatever reason. That’s probably because both teams are in the bottom half of the league in TSI offensive ratings, and the Sun are #2 defensively. Tonight, the Sun are 10-point favorites on the road with an Over/Under of 158.5 at DraftKings. TSI projects Connecticut -9.5 with a total of 156.5, with some of my formulas as low as 148.5 on the total, based on more recent play. All three previous matchups this season have gone under the total, with an average combined score of just 141.5. Not that I would encourage it, but blindly betting these teams’ Unders this year would be 38-32 (54%). Back to the well we go.

Bet: Under 158.5 (Play to 157.5)

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