WNBA Best Bets:
Another day off in the WNBA yesterday allowed me to catch my breath and get caught up from the weekend’s games on top of all the football going on, but we are back with a big slate of games on Tuesday as the regular season winds down and teams gear up for what’s surely to be an exciting playoffs. Some teams have clenched, others are fighting for a seat at the table, and all the while, I’m just trying to figure out who is and isn’t playing and which teams are going to care enough to show up, which isn’t an easy task. My betting volume this last week or so of the season will be smaller for the aforementioned reasons. There’s a whole lot of uncertainty, both tangible and intangible, so I’m going to pull back the reins a bit until the playoffs start, and you know teams are going to bring their A-game.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
Here are tonight’s projections:
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty
The good news for Washington: they currently occupy the #8 seed and are in if the playoffs started today. The bad news: with just two games left, they play the Liberty and the Fever. Tonight, they’re 10-point underdogs at home to the title-favorite Liberty with an Over/Under of 161. TSI projects New York -9 with a total of 159.5. Washington is dealing with some injuries, as they have all season, while I wonder how much the Liberty actually care about this game. There’s a lot of uncertainty, as I mentioned, so I’m not going to bet this one, but my lean would be under 161.5.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Under 161.5
Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota has locked up the Western Conference, while Connecticut sits four games back of the East with two games remaining, so there’s really no hope for movement on either side of the equation here, which makes me wonder if these teams might just mail it in tonight and stay healthy for what hopes to be deep playoff runs. Minnesota is a 1-point favorite on the road with an Over/Under of 155.5. TSI projects Connecticut as a 1-point home favorite with a total of 149.5. This much value on the total is too much for me to pass up, and we’re starting to see it drop to 155 at a couple of books already.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 155.5 (Play to 154)
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky
What a disappointing finish to the season for Chicago. First, Chennedy Carter missed several games with an illness, then Angel Reese went down for the season with a wrist injury, and now Kamila Cardoso is in and out of the lineup with a shoulder injury. They’re still technically in the mix for the 8 seed, but are trending in the wrong direction. Atlanta, whom they are battling with for that final playoff spot, is now an 8-point favorite at home after the injury news for Chicago, with an Over/Under of 154.5. TSI projects Atlanta -4.5 with a total of 152.5. I adjusted the projection for the injuries, and there’s still a ton of value, but it’s tough to get yourself to the window on a team with this much uncertainty.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Chicago Sky +8
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces
This game still has plenty of stakes, as these teams are separated by just 1 game in the race for the Western Conference 2 seed. The Aces are on a tear lately and are 7-point road favorites, with an Over/Under of 162.5, while TSI projects Vegas -6.5 with a total of 162.5. The problem for Seattle is that they will be without key players Jewell Lloyd and Ezi Magbegor. The market makes sense to me, so I don’t have a strong play here either way, but it will be interesting to see if Seattle can hang without Magbegor, specifically on the interior against a dominant frontcourt for Vegas.
WNBA Best Bet: Advise to stay away
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury
Cash the Phoenix win total under 20.5 that we gave out before the season (RIP to the WIngs over 21.5). Phoenix is firmly in the playoff picture as the 7 seed currently, but have not been playing great lately and star Kahleah Copper has been missing time with an injury. She will also miss tonight’s game against the Sparks, where Phoenix is still a 3-point favorite over the worst team in the league, with an Over/Under of 160.5. TSI projects a pick ‘em with a total of 168.5. These teams have averaged 166 total points in their last two matchups, so I really like this Over, despite the market moving the other way.
WNBA Best Bet: Over 160.5 (Play to 162)
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