WNBA Best Bets:
It’s the last day of the WNBA regular season, and the injury report read like Week 18 of the NFL season: most players of consequence are OUT for contenders, including four out of five starters for the Aces, two stars for the Storm, and although unconfirmed at the time of writing this, it seems the Fever and Liberty will also have players out since the lines on those games don’t make any sense at all with all hands on deck. So, I have tried my best to adjust for these key absences, but as is with NFL Week 18, it’s not only about the players playing but how motivated teams are to even be playing today with a championship run on their minds.
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Here are today’s projections:
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream
As I mentioned, this line of Liberty -1 doesn’t make any sense if their stars plan to plan, so that tells me we’re likely to get some late scratches – likely Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart, at least, and perhaps even Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot. Atlanta is battling for the final playoff spot, so they have plenty of motivation to show up here. Without knowing exactly who they’re going to be playing against, it’s tough to think about betting it. Assuming Ionescu and Stewart sit, I’d make the line Liberty -4.5, with another 5 points deducted if Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot rest tonight. There are lots of moving parts, and I don’t have a strong grasp of it. My lean would be under 158.5, as I project 154.5, but the uncertainty makes it just a lean.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Under 158.5
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky
At the moment, we have no news of any players sitting for Connecticut, and that’s reflected in the 13-point line vs. the free-falling Sky, with an Over/under of 154. TSI projects the Sun -14.5 with a total of 152.5, but I wouldn’t want to trust that even if starters are in the lineup for Connecticut that they’d play the whole game. This is another game where the under would be my lean, or maybe grab Chicago at an inflated early number live, but there’s not a real edge to be had here, I don’t think.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Under 154
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever
There hasn’t been any confirmation of players sitting for the playoff-bound Fever, while Washington is scrapping for the last playoff spot. The Mystics being a 2-point favorite makes me think we could get some injury news later today. The Over/Under is 166, and TSI projects Fever -2 with a total of 171.5. At this point, it would be difficult to bet an over because if Caitlin Clark and any other starters sit, that changes the entire dynamic of the Fever offense – but they’re bad on defense either way. Situationally, this would have to be a Mystics play, but I don’t like the number, so it’s a stay-away.Â
WNBA Best Bet: Advise to stay away
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Talk about a meaningless game; Minnesota has locked up the West and is sitting starts Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride, while Los Angeles hasn’t really been a playoff contender since (checks notes) June. The Lynx remain 4-point favorites with an Over/Under of 156.5, while TSI projects Minnesota -6.5 with a total of 161.5, accounting for the absences of Collier and McBride. I’d maybe lean Over here, with both teams still capable of scoring a bit and the Sparks’ defense is utterly atrocious.Â
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Over 156.5
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings
As mentioned, Vegas will sit 80% of their starting lineup, including presumptive MVP, A’ja Wilson. Dallas’s playoff hopes pretty much died the minute Satou Sabally had surgery on her injured shoulder, and to add insult to injury tonight, Teaira McCowan is suspended after receiving her seventh technical of the season and being ejected in their last game. Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 169, and an adjusted TSI projection is still Aces -4.5 with a total of 178.5. Despite the indicated value, it’s hard to bet a game with a team missing four starters, as the data is basically moot at that point. I think Over 169 would be my play if I had to make one, but nothing official here.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Over 169
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm
Continuing with the trend of stars being out, Phoenix is likely to be without Kahleah Copper and Seattle is likely to be without Jewell Lloyd and Ezi Macbegor again tonight. Seattle is still a 1.5 point road favorite, with an Over/Under of 162, while TSI projects Seattle -0.5 with a total of 165. Another potential Over, with this game likely to look like a YMCA pickup game (which Diana Taurasi is probably licking her chops about).
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Over 162
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