After a disastrous weekend betting the W, the came back roaring yesterday with a 5-1 record on all bets I gave out, bringing my VSiN article plays to 5-2 now on the season. Tonight, we have a nice three game slate, and the T Shoe Index has projections on each, and I’ve got a couple bets to throw your way as well.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
Atlanta Dream vs Dallas Wings
Atlanta is currently a 5.5-point home favorite with an Over/Under of 168.5. I bet this total shortly after opening on Monday night at 165.5, which I gave out on my WNBA guide – follow me on X for details – but as it stands, I’m more interested in the side. TSI projects Dallas -2.5 with a total of 174, and the only reason I didn’t bet the Wings plus the points last night was because I read the market and saw I was going to be able to get a better number than the +4 available last night and I was correct. We’ve seen some resistance at +5.5, which is where I’m getting involved here.
Bet: Wings +5.5 (Play to +4)
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury
Have you ever heard the phrase, “Right bet, wrong result?” That was me this weekend live betting the Aces -8.5 when they opened as 21.5-point favorites against the Sparks, only for them to come up short and win by 7. Same logic applies to my Dream +1.5 bet against Phoenix, where Atlanta had a multiple-possession lead with just a few minutes left when I went to bed, only to find out upon waking that Phoenix came back and covered.
My point is, I’ve already lost money on both of these teams and I am seeing inconsistent results from the formulas projecting this game, where Vegas is a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 171.5. TSI projects Aces -16 with a total of 169.5, so I don’t really like anything about this game, although it should be a good one to watch, with A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Co. taking on Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper and the Mercury.
Advice: Stay away
Los Angeles Sparks vs Washington Mystics
One of my best bets of the weekend was Cameron Brink Under 11.5 points against the Aces, which was an easy cover as the rookie took on the daunting frontcourt of the Aces. This is a game without a ton of offensive star power relative to the others tonight, but should offer a nice stage for some up-and-coming stars to display what they can do. LA is currently a 3.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 160.5, while TSI projects LA -1.5 with a total of 157.
I bet the Mystics Monday night at +4, and I still like them at +3.5. Based on TSI and other formulas I run, if this total gets below 157 I would really like the over, as I’m seeing projections as high as 169, but at the current number I’ll stick to the spread.
Bet: Mystics +3.5
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