WNBA Best Bets
We are back from a long holiday weekend, and I hope everyone had a fun and profitable last few days. I didn’t put out as much action as usual this weekend, as I was out of town and unavailable but I’m back in the saddle today with projections on all three WNBA games, and we’ll see if we can cash some bets tonight as well.
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Here are today’s projections:
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury
Connecticut is currently an 8-point favorite at home with an Over/Under of 166. Phoenix started the season very well, even beating the defending champion Aces outright; however, they lost their last game to the Wings and gave up 107 points in the process. TSI projects the Sun -8.5 with a total of 159.5. The only thing keeping me from making this Under a best bet is that these teams’ 2024 data (with no preseason projections baked in) would indicate this total should be 168.5. That’s too much potential variance for me to make it an official play.
Lean: Under 166
Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks
The Fever just earned their first win of the season at the expense of the Sparks this weekend, so I’m sure LA has revenge on its mind against Caitlin Clark and co. Indiana is a 5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 165, while TSI projects Indiana -3.5 with a total of 163. We’re a few games away from preseason projections not being baked into the numbers, and those in-season only numbers favor the Sparks by a point here on the road, which is icing on the cake for me to play the Sparks here.
WNBA Best Bet: Sparks +5 (Play to +4)
Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm
I’m not sure any team has been more Jekyll and Hyde so far this season than Seattle. It certainly could just be an acclimatization period for a newly-formed star trio, but when they’ve been on, they’ve really been on, as demonstrated by their 32-point win against the Mystics over the weekend. Seattle is a 3-point favorite against the scrappy Sky, with an over/under of 166. TSI indicates this should be more of a 5.5-point spread with a total of 161. I’d lean Seattle here, but I do like this under, as both the complex TSI formula and the in-season data both indicate quite a bit of value on the under at this number.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 166 (Play to 164)
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