WNBA Picks
Another profitable day in the WNBA for us last night, which thankfully made up for the rough Saturday in college football. We have just two games on the slate for Monday, featuring some struggling teams (New York and Chicago), one head-scratchingly surging team (Connecticut), and one red-hot Las Vegas Aces team. One quick nugget I discovered when analyzing some TSI performance lately, when my TSI projection also aligns with my market estimation formula, those plays have gone 7-3 in the last 10. It could just be a small sample, but it’s worth keeping an eye on, and something I’ll be able to call out the rest of this season, and something we can potentially use for other sports, as well. Here are today’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
New York Liberty (-11.5) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 164.5
The good news for New York is that Breanna Stewart is practicing again after missing extended time with a bone bruise in her knee. The bad news is that she’s not back yet, and they’ve been dreadful without her. Connecticut, however, has rattled off four wins in their last five games, going 4-0-1 ATS in that span. New York owns the season series 2-1, but the one early-season game at New York (where this is played) was a 48-point blowout by the Liberty, albeit with Stewart. TSI projects Liberty -9 with a total of 163.5, and the last five games’ worth of data actually makes the Sun a 3-point favorite! I’m going to ride the hot hand here in Connecticut after writing them off halfway through the season. I don’t know why they’re winning games rather than tanking, but good for the players for not giving up. Of note, the market estimation formula says Liberty -12, but I still feel good about the overwhelming value indicated by the other formulas.
WNBA Pick: Connecticut Sun +11.5 (Play to +10.5)
Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces (-11), O/U 165
No one is as hot as the Vegas Aces right now. I keep saying that and they keep winning and covering. They’re 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in their last five games, while Chicago is just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS in that span. The question with Chicago now is “Will or won’t Angel Reese Play?” But if there’s any team that Reese’s impact is likely to be limited against, it’s A’ja Wilson and the Aces. TSI projects Aces -14.5 with a total of 161.5, and the last five games’ data would make this Aces -20.5, though the market estimation is just Aces -9.5. TSI and the last five games’ data are enough for me to fire on the Aces again here.
WNBA Pick: Las Vegas Aces -11 (play to -12)
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