WNBA Picks
We split our Sparks bets last night, as they failed to cover the +4 but did (barely) keep the game under 178.5 against the Mercury. Only two more games on the slate for Wednesday. It’s crazy to see that some of these teams just have a few games left in the season, and then it’ll be playoff time. I did a hit on “A Numbers Game” with Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon yesterday, where I said I’d be shocked if the Liberty and Lynx don’t rematch in the WNBA Finals, assuming everyone is healthy. That’s a big “if” with the way this season has gone. Anyway, here are the projections for tonight’s WNBA games from the T Shoe Index:
Atlanta Dream (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Aces, O/U 162
No one is stopping the Aces, who are on fire right now, right? Right? Not so fast. Atlanta is a home favorite of 2.5 after opening as a 1-point ‘dog. The Dream have covered four straight games and have seen five straight games go Under the total, while Vegas has covered and gone Under the total in three of its last five. However, the Aces have won both previous matchups by 2 and 15 points each, but both were played in Sin City. The average combined total in those games was 152.5. TSI projects Dream -3.5 with a total of 163.5, so pretty tight numbers at this point, but I would still play the Dream because my market estimation formula indicates the line might climb to as high as 4.5.
WNBA Pick: Atlanta Dream -2.5 or better
Dallas Wings vs. Connecticut Sun (-4), O/U 162
Dallas opened as 2-point home favorites, but a news memo that Paige Bueckers is questionable with an illness has shifted this line all the way to Connecticut -4 and the total down to 162 from 166.5. Connecticut has shockingly won three of its last five and is 4-0-1 ATS in that span. Dallas has lost its last five and covered just twice in that span. The Wings did win both previous matchups, but with how the Sun are playing lately and the possible absence of Bueckers, I wouldn’t put too much stock into that for now. The average combined total in those games was 182.5. TSI projects Sun -6.5 with a total of 162.5—assuming the absence of Bueckers. I’d still take the Sun at this number once confirmed that Bueckers is out, but don’t be in a hurry because if you bet -4 and then she plays, you’ll be taking some serious -EV on that bet. Wait it out and see the official status before playing.
WNBA Pick: Connecticut Sun -4 or better (without Bueckers, Sun pick ‘em or better with Bueckers)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
