WNBA Picks
Shout out to the Sparks and Fever for each shooting over 35% from three to make for an easy Over win yesterday for us, and also shout out to the guy who told me there was “no way” the Sparks could beat the Fever, even without Caitlin Clark, and they’ve now done so twice in a row. Never say never. Anyway, Sunday has some promise to be an entertaining day of WNBA hoops as the Liberty host the Storm, Connecticut hosts the Aces in a battle of losing records, and Minnesota takes on Angel Reese and the Sky. Here are today’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
New York Liberty (-5) vs. Seattle Storm, O/U 168.5
The Liberty went from an unstoppable force to a mediocre team relatively quickly once the injuries to Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu began to take their toll, and they went from the top-rated team in TSI by a mile to a middle-of-the-pack team in their last 10 games. Seattle, meanwhile, is the team I gave out a long-shot championship futures bet on this week, as they’re surging and currently rank third in TSI ratings. Nonetheless, the line has moved from NY -4.5 to -5, and the total has jumped from 166.6 to 168.5. TSI projects NY -1.5 with a total of 161.5. I generally don’t like to make multiple plays on a game, but all of my formulas are pretty aligned here, so let’s do it. Seattle is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and the Liberty are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10, plus 5-3 to the Under at home this season.
WNBA Picks: Seattle Storm +5 (Play to +4), Under 168.5 (Play to 167.5)
Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces (-18), O/U 157
Both of these teams currently have losing records and could desperately use a win. I’m not sure how we’ve arrived at the Aces laying 18 points, even though Connecticut probably couldn’t beat my men’s league team (kidding, sort of), but here we are, and the market has moved 1.5 points towards the Aces and 1.5 points to the Under. TSI projects Aces -12 with a total of 158, so I’m going to reluctantly play Connecticut here. Both teams have been awful ATS this year, but the trends are a little worse for Vegas, going just 3-7 ATS in their last 10, 3-5 on the road and 5-8 as a favorite.
WNBA Pick: Connecticut Sun +18 (Play to +16)
Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 160
Minnesota opened as 14.5-point favorites, and the line has remained there for the most part, and the total has increased from 157.5 to 160. The total does align with TSI. TSI projects Minnesota -15.5 with a total of 160, and every formula is in alignment on Minnesota here, so I’m going to lay the double digits since Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 and 7-4 ATS overall at home this season.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx -14.5 or better
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