WNBA Picks
We’ve got an early start on Sunday, with the first game tipping off at noon between the bottom-dwelling Connecticut Sun and Chicago Sky, followed by an early afternoon tipoff between Washington and Atlanta, while the A’ja Wilson-less Aces will take on the Phoenix Mercury, who expect to get star guard Kahleah Copper back after she’s missed the entire season up to this point.
Here are Sunday’s WNBA projections from the red-hot T Shoe Index:
Connecticut Sun (-2) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 157.5
For my college football fans, this game is essentially UConn vs UMass; technically, there are projections and odds for it, but these teams are so bad and inconsistent that it feels like literally anything could happen. The one constant here is that these teams find ways to allow their opponents to score above their season averages, combining to allow teams to score 9.5 points more than they score on average. Furthermore, the home/road performances from these teams lead us towards an Over as well, with Connecticut’s home games averaging 170 and Chicago’s road games averaging 165 points. I don’t want to touch this spread despite TSI projecting Chicago as a 4-point favorite; I like the total much better, with TSI calling for 166.5 points.
WNBA Pick: Over 157.5 (Play to 160)
Washington Mystics vs Atlanta Dream (-4.5), O/U 158.5
These are two teams I’ve enjoyed watching and betting on this season; Washington is unexpectedly competitive despite having a roster intended to be rebuilding, and Atlanta has been probably the biggest surprise of the league – and that’s coming from someone who bet the Dream win total Over. TSI only projects Atlanta as a half-point favorite here with a total of 163. There are several formulas calling for the outright upset here, but I’ll take the points with Washington, and the home/road splits really indicate a high-scoring affair here, so I’m going to double-dip and take the Over as well.
WNBA Pick: Washington Mystics +4.5 (Play to +3), Over 158.5 (Play to 160)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury (-2.5), O/U 163.5
This game is both really interesting and really informative, as the Aces will be without MVP A’ja Wilson for the second straight game, and Phoenix is getting star Kahleah Copper back from injury to make her season debut. To show what the injury impact is to this game, TSI would make Vegas a 3.5 point favorite if Wilson was in and Copper was still out, but now TSI calls for Phoenix -6 with a total of 159. TSI shows that Vegas has been overrated by the market to this point anyway, as we’ve faded them multiple times and will do so again here. I’m also going to give a lean to the Under, but I won’t make it official because I don’t have enough data to accurately account for Copper’s return.
WNBA Picks: Phoenix Mercury -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
Lean Under 163.5
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
