WNBA Picks
We’re back with a WNBA doubleheader tonight after a random off night on Wednesday for the league. Tonight, the Phoenix Mercury will host the Golden State Valkyries, and the Washington Mystics take on the New York Liberty. This season has started off extremely frustrating from a betting standpoint, as honestly, neither TSI nor the market has had a very good handle on these teams from a rating perspective. I’d say totals have been a little easier to come by, but the absolute error on spreads has been all over the place for all predictive models. Let’s look to turn it around now that teams are nearing the 10-game mark, but the difficult thing is the injury adjustments that have already had to be made, which can really muddy the data (i.e., Phoenix and Indiana).
Here are tonight’s projections:
Phoenix Mercury (-5.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 157.5
No one has been hit harder by the early injury bug than Phoenix, who hasn’t had Kahleah Copper all season. Star forward Alyssa Thomas has missed the last handful of games and will be out for this one as well. Phoenix is 5-3 despite the injury luck. Golden State is just 2-4, but with a season win total of just 7.5, they’re actually exceeding expectations early. The market has been all Valkyries here, pushing the line from 8.5 to 5.5, while the total has risen from 156.5 to 157.5. TSI projects Mercury -0.5 with a total of just 153.5.
WNBA Pick: Valkyries +5.5 (Play to +4)
Washington Mystics vs New York Liberty (-14.5), O/U 164.5
Washington let us down earlier this week after they failed to cover against the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever, but they’ve been a pleasant surprise this season from a competitiveness standpoint. The Liberty, showing no signs of championship fatigue, have looked like a buzzsaw and are basically double-digit favorites on a nightly basis now. The spread has climbed from -11.5 to -14.5, and the total increased from 162.5 to 164.5, while TSI projects Liberty -13.5 with a total of 161.5. Betting Liberty Unders is tricky because they are likely going to be in the 90s against virtually everyone, so it’s a matter of how many points they feel like giving up. I think I’ll pass on an official play, but I would lean Under here.
WNBA Pick: Lean Under 164.5
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