WNBA Picks
Every team in the WNBA has played at least one game already, so the season is officially in full swing. After a standalone game Monday night, we’re in for a treat of a doubleheader Tuesday night, as the Aces will visit the Connecticut Sun and the Dream travel to Indiana to take on Caitlin Clark’s Fever.
Here are the game breakdowns, TSI projections, and WNBA picks for each game:
Connecticut Sun vs Las Vegas Aces (-12.5), O/U 166.5
Connecticut took the resurgent Washington Mystics down to the wire on Sunday, despite a 6/21 shooting day from Marina Mabrey (that cost us our prop bet), so I don’t think they’re quite as bad as people think; Las Vegas also is coming off a loss to the defending champs, so both of these teams are undoubtedly itching to get in the win column. The Aces, despite 31 points from A’ja Wilson, got just 33 points from its other four starters, including 2/10 shooting and 5 points for newly-acquired Jewell Lloyd. I think it’s going to take some time to get her totally acclimated with her new team.
Sharp books opened this line Aces -12 before it inched up to 12.5, while the total opened 166.5 and has bounced between that and 167.5. TSI sees a different story here, making the Aces just a 5 point favorite on the road, with a total of 165.5. That’s too many points to ignore in this situation, so I’m taking the Sun.
Bet: Sun +12.5 (Play to +10)
Indiana Fever (-8.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 173
Caitlin Clark started her MVP campaign with a bang Saturday against Angel Reese and the Sky, going for a 20/10/10 triple double on national TV in a blowout win. Atlanta, on the flip side, got spanked as 8 point favorites against Phoenix in their opener, which I think lends itself to a lot of “Atlanta isn’t good and Indiana is awesome” takes, which explains this line.
Recreational books opened this game Indiana -10, but sharp books opened -8, where it currently sits after briefly touching 7.5. The total opened 171 and has steadily risen to 174. TSI projects Indiana -3.5 with a total of 161.5; though I’d cautioned on the total that Atlanta has a new coach and is playing much faster, so the total projections might still be lagging because of preseason data. I’m still going to play Atlanta here, though, because I think it’s a great spot for them in a massively inflated line as an overreaction to one game.
Bet: Dream +8.5 (Play to +7)
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