With a night off before the NBA playoffs resume, I figured it was a good time to check the standings in the VSiN KillerSports NBA Playoff Challenge.
Fifteen handicappers and pro bettors are making picks throughout the playoffs for a chance to win $5000 in prizes, put up by KillerSports.com.
Pro bettor Steve Fezzik and VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen are tied for first with 19-11 records. There are only eight picks left—five in the conference finals and three in the finals.
I asked Steve, a frequent VSiN guest and a two-time Westgate SuperContest winner, what his secrets to success are.
I’m gonna attribute it to basic contest strategy that no one but me seems to follow. I try to wait as long as possible to submit my plays as the lines are stale all day long. If I like a play but I get dealt a number worse than the market, I almost always pass. If I get dealt a game that’s off by two points on the total or a full point on the side, I pretty much almost always play it. And if I like a game and I’m getting a line that’s at market, I may or may not play it But if the prevalent market number by example is +6 1/2 or +7 and I like the game on the underdog, I usually will take it the +7 knowing I’m getting a quarter point of CLV.
I would say the vast majority of everyone else seems to just take the games they like and they don’t bother worrying about any line value. Guys who are close to .500 have to start taking major chances. Time is running out. I would argue the optimal strategy is to fade the biggest line moves, knowing I’m likely gonna be on some of them and go the opposite because they need to make up big-time ground.
I asked Zach the same question: Why are you at the top?
I have had a good playoffs in general (until I got slaughtered on two results — the Knicks-Celtics series and a really bad read on Game 7 of Nuggets-Thunder). Just being higher on the Pacers and Timberwolves than everybody else helped a lot.
This is my first contest like this. So I see Fezzik at the top of the leaderboard and am trying not to get too excited because I know he’s a pro who specializes in contests. To this point, I have just been focusing on what I like in each game individually and trying not to worry about contest strategy.
With Game 1 in the West tonight, contestants will be back in action. The deadline is 7:30 p.m. ET, one hour before game time. >>Check here.
Opening statements
- Timberwolves (+7.5 at Circa) vs. Thunder, 8:30 ET, ESPN.
Zach has been on the Timberwolves’ wagon since the beginning of the year, so there is no going back now.
Dan Karpuc has five player props for Game 1. He also posted his overall thoughts on player props heading into the conference finals.
>>Do your own research with our NBA Prop Analyzer.
Steve Makinen has put together his exhaustive list of conference finals trends.
This one caught my attention:
The last 10 conference finals Game Ones have been offensive explosions – Nine of the last 10 conference finals Game Ones have gone Over the total (90%), producing 232.9 PPG, surpassing posted totals by almost 18 PPG!
The Total is 215.5 tonight.
Steve applies all of his betting systems and power ratings to both Game 1s in his Analytics Report.
Reconsidering Panthers
- Panthers (+107 at Circa) at Hurricanes (-119), 8 ET, TNT.
Jonathan Davis has filed his series preview and here’s a hint on which way he is going:
When it comes to the Panthers and having a deep playoff run, I was dead wrong. I felt that this team wouldn’t have enough left in the tank after two long playoff runs, but all they have done is play better as the postseason has gone on.
>>JD has five wagers for your consideration here.
MLB Today
Greg Peterson already has filed his top plays for today.
Josh Appelbaum and Steve Makinen will post their Best Bet contributions later this morning.
