WNBA Picks
After a long Memorial Day weekend full of games and a short hiatus on Monday, the WNBA is back in action Tuesday night with a 5-pack of games. I took advantage of the off day to look under the hood a bit and make some tweaks to TSI, given that we’ve started the season much worse than anticipated against the spread. Hopefully, those tweaks get us turned around quickly, starting tonight.
Here are the TSI projections for Tuesday’s games:
Connecticut Sun vs Dallas Wings (-4.5), O/U 161.5
Connecticut has been quite the adventure this season so far; they’ve gotten killed by the Dream and Aces, but gave the Lynx all they could handle on Friday. Our season win total bet on Dallas is off to a great start, as they’re yet to find the win column but could do so tonight.
Very little line movement in this game, as the spread has remained at 4.5 since being posted and the total has only inched up from 160.5. TSI is right in line with the market here, projecting Dallas -4.5 with a total of 162, so this will be a pass for me.
Advice: Stay away
New York Liberty (-16.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 164.5
The Liberty are coming off a huge win over Caitlin Clark and the Fever over the weekend to improve to 3-0, while the Valkyries have won back-to-back games after dropping their opener to LA.
This line opened Liberty -15 and has been bet up to 16.5, while the total has nosedived from 168 down to 164.5. TSI projects Liberty -16.5 with a total of 161, as the Valkyries have yet to have a game reach the 160s. I liked this Under a whole lot better at 168, but there’s still some meat on the bone.
Bet: Under 164.5 (Play to 163.5)
Minnesota Lynx (-7.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 157.5
If you’re Minnesota, the great thing is that you’re 4-0; however, the Lynx have not looked anything like the team we saw last year, probably in large part to Kayla McBride’s absence from the lineup. Seattle has won three straight after dropping its opener to Phoenix, including a 20-point beatdown of the Aces.
The spread had stayed put at 6.5 before some shops hopped to 7.5, while the total has creeped up from 156.5, and TSI projects Minnesota -3.5 with a total of 158. I’m going to ride the hot hand in Seattle here, despite Minneosta getting McBride back for this game.
Bet: Storm +7.5 (Play to +5)
Phoenix Mercury (-6) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 157.5
I still cannot get over how bad Chicago is to start this year. They’ve only played three games, but in those three games they’ve been about 16 points below the average WNBA team, per TSI. They’re losing by an average of 24 points per game. Phoenix, meanwhile, is off to a 3-1 start and is playing good basketball despite not having star Kahleah Copper back from injury.
We’ve seen this line move everywhere from Mercury -7.5 to Mercury -6.5 and even -6, with the total climbing from 154.5 to 158 at some places. TSI projects Phoenix -12.5 with a total of 157.5, and with Chicago struggling the way they are, this is a no brainer bet for me.
Bet: Mercury -6 (Play to -8)
Los Angeles Sparks (-1.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 163.5
Atlanta has picked up three wins in its first five games, which helps our season win total Over bet; while LA is 2-3, but its two wins are against the Valkyries in their first ever game as a team, and the Sky. They lost to the Lynx, Mercury and a rematch with Golden State since that opening win.
The market likes LA here, though, moving the line from Atlanta -2.5 to LA -1.5, and the total has been everywhere from 165 to 162 and back to 163.5. TSI projects LA -1 with a total of 167. Injury note: Sparks guard Rickea Jackson is expected back in the lineup after missing multiple games with a concussion, and Dream center Brittney Griner is out for this game.
Lean: Over 163.5
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
