WNBA Picks
We’ve finally reached win-or-go-home time in the WNBA, as the playoffs have begun. We’ve got two games slated for Tuesday night with the Indiana Fever hosting the Atlanta Dream and the Seattle Storm hosting the Las Vegas Aces. My projection methods for the playoffs are a tad different than the traditional power rating system I normally use, as a result of the last 10 games or so just being so abhorrent in nature, with teams “quitting” after being eliminated from playoff contention, teams coasting once securing their spot, etc. It really muddies the data, so these projections will have three components: home/away splits for the season (bigger sample size and specificity of location), market estimated ratings, and head-to-head results from this season. Here are tonight’s projections:
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream (-3.5), O/U 159.5
Indiana is essentially a walking corpse at this point, with six players inactive due to injury. Atlanta took Game 1 of this series at home by 12 points, so Indiana has to pull the upset to keep their injury-riddled season alive. On the season, Atlanta is 3-2 against the Fever but only by about two points per game, including losing one of two at Indiana and only winning the other by a point. The Dream were actually a point better on the road this season, but Indiana was 5.5 points better at home than on the road. TSI projects Dream -3 with a total of 161. Both games between these teams in Indiana totaled 181 points each, so I’m going to play the Over in what is likely my only bet of the night.
WNBA Pick: Over 159.5
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces (-5.5), O/U 161
No team is coming into the playoffs as red-hot as the Aces. They finished the season on an absolute tear and continued that into Game 1, where they spanked Seattle by 25 points. The interesting thing is that in the five games these teams played before tonight, Vegas won by an average of 1.4 points per game and actually would’ve only covered this 5.5 point line one time – Game 1 of this playoff series. In the two games at Seattle, Vegas won by five and lost by 20, but that was much earlier in the season, so it’s tough to gauge how that translates to tonight. TSI projects Aces -8 with a total of 164.5. The average combined total of the previous matchups was 171.4, so I would lean Over here, but there’s just too much conflicting data on Vegas to make an official play.
WNBA Lean: Over 161
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
