WNBA Picks
I’m not sure anyone had the corpse of Indiana beating Las Vegas on their home floor on their bingo card, but that is indeed what happened on Sunday. The Fever took a 1-0 series lead in the best-of-five series and stole home court from the Aces. Meanwhile, Minnesota took care of business and leads 1-0 over Phoenix. Back in action tonight, fresh off cashing a few Unders on Sunday, we’ll see what TSI has dialed up for us in these pivotal game 2s.
Minnesota Lynx (-7) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 159.5
Minnesota has absolutely owned Phoenix this season, winning four of the five games and all three that have been played in Minnesota, with an average score of 83-67 in those home games. I mentioned before that Unders have dominated this series, hitting in all five games so far this season. It doesn’t look like oddsmakers have really taken notice, as the O/Us have been between 157.5 and 160 each game. TSI projects Minnesota -10 with a total of 154 in this game, and I think I’d have to look Under again, as Phoenix is now 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 games, the Under is 24-18-4 in these teams’ respective home/road splits, and 28-23-3 in the favorite/underdog roles.
WNBA Pick: Under 159.5
Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 164.5
As I referenced, it was totally shocking to see Indiana come into Vegas and win game 1. After winning 17 straight games entering the playoffs, Vegas is now just 2-2 in the postseason. Suddenly, things feel a little uncertain with them, considering the slew of Fever contributors that are missing from this series, most notably Caitlin Clark. Indiana has now beaten the Aces three straight times, losing only the first matchup of the year, and doing so by an average score of 83-72. The two games in Vegas have averaged a score of 85-81 in favor of the Fever. If Vegas still has that championship DNA and mindset, you’d think they’d come out swinging tonight and even the series without breaking a sweat, but the numbers seem to indicate there is something about this matchup that bothers them. TSI projects Aces -1 with a total of 162, so I’d lean Fever and the points here tonight, but I’m withholding an official play on the chance that the Aces realize what they’re capable of and put this one away early.
WNBA Lean: Indiana Fever +9.5
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