WNBA Picks
Pivotal game 3s are taking place in the W tonight, as the Indiana Fever will host Las Vegas, while the Phoenix Mercury will look to keep their momentum rolling from the second half of game 2 in a home showdown with Minnesota. Both series’ underdogs took a game on the road and look to take a 2-1 series lead and maintain the home court advantage they stole. Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces (-4.5), O/U 163
I would not have thought a couple weeks ago that I’d be sitting here writing about the Fever hosting a semifinal game against the Aces, having won a game 3 on the road to win the Atlanta series and then stealing game 1 of this series. They’ve clicked at the right time despite missing a number of key contributors, including Caitlin Clark. Indiana has been a tough matchup for Vegas, outsourcing the Aces by an average of 80-75 this season, and 81-62 at home. TSI projects Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite here, given their success against the Aces this year, with a total of 149. I think the Indiana crowd will be raucous, and Indiana wins a low-scoring affair to take a 2-1 lead in the series.
WNBA Picks: Indiana Fever +4.5; Under 163
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx (-4), O/U 158.5
Prior to the overtime loss to Phoenix in game 2, Minnesota had really dominated Phoenix this season and every matchup had gone Under, which game 2 also did, in regulation. Minnesota is outscoring the Mercury by an average of 80-72 this season, but in the lone game they’ve played in Phoenix, the Mercury won 79-71. TSI projects Lynx -2 here with a total of 155, so we’re going back to the well with the Under, in hopes these teams make it six games in a row that the game goes under the total in regulation.
WNBA Pick: Under 158.5
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
