Bank of America400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
The Las Vegas race last weekend was dominated by Chase Briscoe, who was one of my top 5 picks and top underdogs to win in Sunday’s VSiN e-mail newsletter. He held off Kyle Larson to take home the checkered flag at +800.
Larson, however, maintains the series lead as we head to Charlotte for the first fall playoff race on the oval layout since way back in 2018. Since then, the fall races have been run on the “roval” at the track, a hybrid of oval and road racing. This will obviously be a different animal to handicap. That said, we aren’t going in blind, as the Coca-Cola 600 was held at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May. The difference between that race and this week’s Bank of America 400? Simple: 200 fewer miles and a lot less of a chance for fatigue and mechanical breakdowns to affect the finish. In fact, with Charlotte’s C handicap-ability grade based only on recent 600s, perhaps this race could bump that grade up a bit.
The Coca-Cola 600 has been one of the series’ most prestigious events, held on Memorial Day weekend in NASCAR’s backyard. This race won’t be quite as special from that standpoint, but it is critical in the title race. Larson leads by 26 points over Denny Hamlin, and not surprisingly, they are the co-favorites for this race at +450, according to DraftKings. My initial simulation finds a different pair upfront, however: Ty Gibbs (+1100) and Christopher Bell (+500), as both have been statistically superior of late at this track.
Although the tracks we visited most recently, Kansas and Las Vegas, are both 1.5-mile ovals like Charlotte, the racing here is typically faster with more passing and intensity. I consider Texas a sister venue when doing my analysis. In other words, just because Chase Briscoe (+550) won at Las Vegas last week and Larson the week prior at Kansas doesn’t mean that either is due for certain success on Sunday, although Larson has gotten hot at the right time and certainly will be someone to watch in this race. Among the other drivers to watch not mentioned yet, my simulation pegs Ryan Blaney (+1100) fourth, William Byron (+1400) sixth and Tyler Reddick (+750) seventh.
Before digging into what to look for statistically at Charlotte, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened last week at Las Vegas and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 31 races.
Initial Las Vegas simulation winner: Loser (-1 units) – NOW -3.15 units for the season
Final Las Vegas Simulation winner: Loser (-1 units) – NOW +29.05 units for the season (These are +85.85 units for the last two seasons!)
Final Las Vegas Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +8.35 units for the season
Final Las Vegas Simulation Top 3 drivers To Win: Three Losers – total return -3 units – NOW +6.65 units for the season (Briscoe was projected 5th)
Final simulation top 3 Las Vegas projections: one winner, two losers – total return -0.9 units – NOW -3.7 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Las Vegas projections: two winners, three losers – total return -1.7 units – Now -36 units for the season
We also scored seven more top-10s, and if you go by my NASCAR wagering standard of never laying more than -250 on any bet, that would have +3.35 units. Last week we saw +4.7 units of profit on those same top-10s. At this point, I am looking forward to using this strategy for the full 2027 season.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
Final simulation top 5 Las Vegas projections: three winners, two losers – total return +0.8 units – Now -53.55 units for the season
Top Las Vegas Longshots to win: one winner (Briscoe +800), three losers – total return +5 units – Now -15 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Las Vegas: Logano (10th), Blaney (5th), Hocevar (12th), Chastain (30th) – Now 88 for 125 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.
Hopefully you caught Sunday morning’s newsletter and looked past all of the NFL and MLB stories, as I had Briscoe in my top 5 and in my top underdogs to win, even though he climbed to 8-1 odds by race time.
Looking ahead to Charlotte now on Sunday, I analyzed the stats for the races in the next gen car over the last four seasons that have been run at this 1.5-mile, 24-degree high-banked fast speedway. Daniel Suarez is the most recent winner here, doing it at the Coca-Cola 600 back in May. Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin are the other drivers who have won here in the next gen car era.
Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Charlotte
1. Ty Gibbs: 7.25
2. Tyler Reddick: 9
3. William Byron: 9.25
4. Christopher Bell: 9.75
5. Kyle Larson: 10.67
6. Chase Briscoe: 11
…
23. Brad Keselowski: 23.5
24. Joey Logano: 23.5
25. Austin Dillon: 23.75
26. Zane Smith: 24
27. Erik Jones: 27
28. Carson Hocevar: 27.33
Average PRACTICE SPEED last four races at Charlotte
1. Carson Hocevar: 2.33
2. Ty Gibbs: 8.5
3. William Byron: 10.5
4. Darrell Wallace: 12.25
5. Tyler Reddick: 12.5
6. Denny Hamlin: 12.5
…
23. Ryan Preece: 25
24. Austin Dillon: 25
25. Shane Van Gisbergen: 26
26. Joey Logano: 26.25
27. John Hunter Nemechek: 28
28. Zane Smith: 31
Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Charlotte
1. William Byron: 7.25
2. Christopher Bell: 8
3. Tyler Reddick: 9
4. Ty Gibbs: 9.25
5. Denny Hamlin: 9.75
6. Chris Buescher: 14.25
…
23. Daniel Suarez: 20.5
24. Carson Hocevar: 21
25. John Hunter Nemechek: 21
26. Zane Smith: 22.75
27. Austin Dillon: 23
28. Austin Cindric: 24.5
Average LAPS LED last four races at Charlotte
1. William Byron: 105.75
2. Christopher Bell: 46.75
3. Ryan Blaney: 40.75
4. Tyler Reddick: 37
5. Denny Hamlin: 37
6. Ty Gibbs: 24.25
…
21. AJ Allmendinger: 0
22. Darrell Wallace: 0
23. Joey Logano: 0
24. Alex Bowman: 0
25. Erik Jones: 0
26. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
27. Austin Dillon: 0
28. Austin Cindric: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Charlotte
1. William Byron: 115.1
2. Christopher Bell: 111.1
3. Tyler Reddick: 105.83
4. Denny Hamlin: 102.15
5. Ryan Blaney: 92.3
6. Ty Gibbs: 91.35
…
23. Carson Hocevar: 66.57
24. Daniel Suarez: 65.85
25. Zane Smith: 61.03
26. Austin Dillon: 60.88
27. John Hunter Nemechek: 59.6
28. Austin Cindric: 56.2
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Charlotte
1. Tyler Reddick: 300.5
2. Christopher Bell: 292.75
3. Denny Hamlin: 290.5
4. William Byron: 278.25
5. Ty Gibbs: 273
6. Kyle Larson: 242
…
23. Daniel Suarez: 111
24. Zane Smith: 104.25
25. John Hunter Nemechek: 100.67
26. Carson Hocevar: 93.33
27. Austin Dillon: 89
28. Austin Cindric: 80.75
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Charlotte
1. William Byron: 4
2. Christopher Bell: 8.75
3. Tyler Reddick: 9.75
4. Brad Keselowski: 10.25
5. AJ Allmendinger: 12
6. Denny Hamlin: 14.75
…
23. Austin Dillon: 22
24. Zane Smith: 23
25. Kyle Larson: 24
26. Carson Hocevar: 26
27. John Hunter Nemechek: 27.67
28. Austin Cindric: 30
There are some pretty interesting statistical numbers above, and two drivers who tend to set themselves apart from the field in William Byron and Christopher Bell. However, seeing as how there have been 10 drivers to win the last 10 Coca-Cola 600s, it’s hard to peg one guy as a “favorite” based on stats at this track. In fact, there is NO current driver with multiple Charlotte wins on the oval. Perhaps we will see a first in that regard on Sunday. But Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing are probably the teams to beat this week.
With all of those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Charlotte, in order, are Bell, Larson, Byron, Hamlin, Blaney. In terms of Track Designation ratings (FAST Speedway), the top guys are Logano, Gibbs, Larson, Hocevar, Bell. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Blaney, Briscoe, Larson, Bell, Logano. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice/qualifying, which is set for 1 p.m. ET. Qualifying has been somewhat more important than practice in recent years, three of the last 10 winners started from the pole, and the last four pole qualifiers have finished 2, 3, 4 and 6. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit on Sunday in the morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Gibbs, Larson, Bell, Byron, Blaney
Top underdogs (+1100 or better): Gibbs, Blaney, Logano, Byron
Favorites to struggle: Briscoe, Hocevar, Wallace, Elliott
The 267-lap event at Charlotte is set for 3 p.m. Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
SPONSORED
8 STRAIGHT WINNERS. +$3,200.
The Doc’s Sports AI is absolutely hammering the books — and these games HAVEN’T EVEN BEEN CLOSE.
During this 8-game winning streak, the average cover margin is a ridiculous 13.75 points – See Here
And this isn’t some one-week heater.
Since launching less than a year ago, Doc’s Sports AI has generated more than +$22,500 in profit for $100-per-unit bettors.
Now Doc’s Sports AI-v3 is unleashed for football season — and it’s already delivering.
8 STRAIGHT. +$3,200. +$22,500 SINCE LAUNCH.
The numbers are doing the talking. Today you can use promo code VSIN90AI and get 90% off a 3 day package of Doc’s Sports AI-v3
