Iowa Corn 350 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
After the final week off on the 2026 schedule, the NASCAR Cup Series gets back to work this week at Iowa Speedway, as the final push for the Chase playoffs begins. Just four races stand between now and the cutoff point to determine which 16 drivers will enter the Chase and remain eligible for the season title.
The next three tracks the circuit visits I have designated as flat short tracks, which, if you’ve been following me for this season’s preview articles, you know that I find these to be the most predictable venues. Having three in a row coming up here gives drivers an ideal chance to put together a nice run before the final cutoff race at Daytona, which can, of course, be a wild card. If you ask most drivers, they will say that heading to Daytona with a playoff spot still on the line isn’t an ideal situation. With that in mind, perhaps these next three weeks provide a great chance for bettors to go on another huge run as well.
This will be just the third Cup Series race run at Iowa Speedway, a 0.875-mile oval with 12- to 14-degree banking in the turns. It is located in Newton, Iowa, just off I-80. In terms of handicapping Iowa Speedway, the track comes with a grade of B+, despite the relative newness. There have been some interesting moments in the two races run here, and there have been eight to 12 cautions at each race, the latter being the 2025 event, but only two cars have failed to finish in those races, so you can generally assume your guy will be around at the end.
Two drivers have dominated the first two Iowa Corn 350s: Ryan Blaney and William Byron, who you will find atop most of the statistical leaderboards I have posted below. They are also the top two drivers on this week’s initial simulation. Interestingly, however, Byron has still yet to win this season, nor has teammate Kyle Larson, who checks in at No. 3 on the initial sim. In fact, only Chase Elliott, a two-time winner, has reached Victory Lane this year for Hendrick Motorsports. Perhaps this is when things finally start to turn.
The flat short track designation typically gives race bettors a leg up on the books, but from early indications, those setting the odds at DraftKings have caught wind of how typically predictable these races are, and they have set their prices accordingly based on the drivers who have separated themselves at such tracks in 2026. In fact, the odds board for this week shows Denny Hamlin (+400) as the favorite, followed by Christopher Bell (+500) and Ryan Blaney (+550). Larson (+750 each), Byron (+900), Joey Logano (+900), and Chase Briscoe (+950) are also expected contenders. No one else is better than +1000, but that is a lot of drivers to be listed at better than 10-1. It doesn’t look like a good week to bet underdogs.
Unfortunately, almost nothing good happened at Indianapolis a couple of weekends ago, and to be frank, the only thing uglier was the actual race, which was simply a matter of turning laps with little to no passing. Here is how the Brickyard 400 affected our season numbers to date.
Initial Indianapolis simulation winner: Loser (-1 units) – NOW +5.85 units for the season
Final Indianapolis Simulation winner: Loser (-1 units) – NOW +38.05 units for the season
Final Indianapolis Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +26.35 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Indianapolis projections: three losers — total return -3 units – NOW -1.25 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Indianapolis projections: one winner, four losers, Hamlin -225 — total return -4 units – Now -23.15 units for the season
As DraftKings has apparently stopped posting top-10 odds, which I assume because they have not done it the last four races, I am discontinuing my updating of those. For the record, we landed four top-10 finishers last week against six losers.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
Final simulation top 5 Indianapolis projections: two winners, three losers, Bell +200, Hamlin -225 — total return -1 units — Now -39.3 units for the season
Top Indianapolis long shots to win: four losers – total return -4 units – Now +2 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Indianapolis: Logano (3rd), Wallace (28th), Chastain (23rd), Keselowski (6th) — Now 61 for 86 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.
Not a great showing for my top underdog or favorites to fade sections, so I’m happy to flush Indy and move forward. Looking ahead to Iowa now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the two races run here, and these are the leaders during that time frame in specific racing categories. I am making it a habit of narrowing the number of drivers I am looking at in these stat leaders to those most offered on the typical betting platforms:
Average STARTING POSITION last two IOWA SPEEDWAY Races
1. Kyle Larson: 2
2. William Byron: 3
3. Chase Briscoe: 3.5
4. Ryan Blaney: 4
5. Brad Keselowski: 5
6. Josh Berry: 7.5
…
25. Austin Dillon: 27
26. Noah Gragson: 27
27. Erik Jones: 28.5
28. Ryan Preece: 31
29. John Hunter Nemechek: 31.5
30. Ricky Stenhouse: 32.5
Average PRACTICE POSITION last two IOWA SPEEDWAY Races
1. Alex Bowman: 5
2. Chase Briscoe: 6.5
3. Chase Elliott: 7
4. Ty Gibbs: 8
5. Christopher Bell: 8.5
6. Tyler Reddick: 8.5
…
25. Ryan Preece: 27.5
26. John Hunter Nemechek: 27.5
27. Joey Logano: 29.5
28. Todd Gilliland: 29.5
29. Erik Jones: 30
30. Zane Smith: 32.5
Average RUNNING POSITION last two IOWA SPEEDWAY Races
1. Ryan Blaney: 4
2. William Byron: 5.5
3. Brad Keselowski: 7.5
4. Chase Elliott: 8.5
5. Josh Berry: 9.5
6. Chase Briscoe: 12
…
25. Todd Gilliland: 24.5
26. Shane Van Gisbergen: 25
27. Ricky Stenhouse: 25
28. Erik Jones: 26.5
29. Noah Gragson: 27.5
30. Zane Smith: 29.5
Average LAPS LED last two IOWA SPEEDWAY Races
1. Ryan Blaney: 115
2. William Byron: 70.5
3. Chase Briscoe: 40.5
4. Kyle Larson: 40
5. Brad Keselowski: 36.5
6. Josh Berry: 16
…
13. Joey Logano: 0
14. Alex Bowman: 0
15. Carson Hocevar: 0
16. Ross Chastain: 0
17. Darrell Wallace: 0
18. Tyler Reddick: 0
19. Austin Dillon: 0
20. Ty Gibbs: 0
21. Denny Hamlin: 0
22. Michael McDowell: 0
23. Ryan Preece: 0
24. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
25. AJ Allmendinger: 0
26. Todd Gilliland: 0
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
28. Erik Jones: 0
29. Noah Gragson: 0
30. Zane Smith: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last two IOWA SPEEDWAY Races
1. William Byron: 131.55
2. Ryan Blaney: 130.75
3. Brad Keselowski: 105.5
4. Chase Elliott: 104.95
5. Josh Berry: 95.5
6. Chase Briscoe: 93.05
…
25. Chris Buescher: 52.55
26. Todd Gilliland: 51.75
27. Noah Gragson: 47.25
28. Erik Jones: 45.25
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 43.2
30. Zane Smith: 35.45
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last two IOWA SPEEDWAY Races
1. Ryan Blaney: 342.5
2. William Byron: 325
3. Brad Keselowski: 320
4. Chase Elliott: 315.5
5. Josh Berry: 279
6. Alex Bowman: 243.5
…
25. John Hunter Nemechek: 77
26. Chris Buescher: 66.5
27. Erik Jones: 34
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 15
29. Noah Gragson: 12
30. Zane Smith: 8
Best AVERAGE FINISH last two IOWA SPEEDWAY Races
1. William Byron: 1.5
2. Ryan Blaney: 2.5
3. Brad Keselowski: 6.5
4. Alex Bowman: 7.5
5. Joey Logano: 7.5
6. Chase Elliott: 8.5
…
25. Erik Jones: 24
26. Michael McDowell: 25
27. AJ Allmendinger: 27
28. Kyle Larson: 31
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 31
30. Zane Smith: 33.5
Of note on these stat leaders, unfamiliar front-runners like Josh Berry and Brad Keselowski show up often, while some notables like Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and Ty Gibbs have yet to even lead a lap. Those are currently four of the hottest drivers on the circuit, so we’ll see if that trend gets broken on Sunday.
If you’re wondering which simulation factors have proven most impactful recently at Iowa Speedway, in order they have been 1) qualifying position and 2) how drivers do at similar flat short tracks. Typically, momentum and practice speeds haven’t proven as important. Even still, the practice speeds from Saturday will affect the final simulation, as will qualifying to a greater degree, so as always, I recommend waiting until the final sim is posted.
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Iowa Speedway are William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Josh Berry. In terms of flat short tracks, the order is Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell. For recent ratings, the top 5 are Hamlin, Gibbs, Reddick, Blaney, Larson. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice and qualifying, which is set for 2 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after qualifying), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Blaney, Byron, Hamlin, Bell, Gibbs
Top underdogs to consider (+1000 or higher): Elliott, Reddick, Gibbs, Van Gisbergen, Berry
Favorites to struggle: Wallace, Buescher, Chastain, Hocevar
The 350-mile event at Iowa is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sim all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
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