MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, August 9.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:35 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Blue Jays starting pitcher Shane Bieber has struggled this season, posting a 5.11 ERA and 5.66 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 4.6 walks per nine innings. He faces a Phillies offense that is eighth in scoring at home with 4.8 runs per game. Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo has a 3.36 ERA and 2.97 fielding independent with 10.8 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that is last in scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Picks: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +114 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -1.5 -102 and Total 8.4
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees
Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes may be due for a bit of regression on his 3.67 ERA as his fielding independent is 4.91 with 1.5 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings allowed. He faces a Yankees lineup that is averaging only 3.4 runs per game in their past 37 games. Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has a 2.26 ERA with 11 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing two walks and 0.8 home runs per nine innings. Schlittler is supported by a bullpen that ranks second in baseball in ERA at 3.15. The Braves have the lowest bullpen ERA among National League teams at 3.47.
Pick: Braves vs. Yankees Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones has a 4.02 ERA and 3.82 fielding independent this season. He is getting 10 strikeouts per nine innings and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his past eight starts, supplying a 3.03 ERA in that stretch. Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea has a 4.33 ERA with 8.8 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Manaea is supported by a bullpen that traded most of their key high-leverage pitchers at the trade deadline.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -146
2:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo is dealing with command issues, registering a 3.87 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings allowed. He is supported by an offense that is 28th in the league in scoring with just under four runs per game. White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin has pitched better than his 4.13 ERA would indicate. He has a 3.48 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings allowed. Martin posts a 2.73 ERA at home with only 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 5.32 road ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Picks: White Sox Moneyline -104 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -149 and Total 7.9
4:05 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has always been at his best at home, posting a career 2.95 ERA with 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, compared to a 3.91 road ERA. This season, he does have a 3.74 ERA with a career-low 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, but that has lowered to a 2.97 ERA in his past 11 starts. Tigers starting pitcher Troy Melton has a 1.58 ERA but a much higher 3.78 fielding independent with 7.8 strikeouts and a home run allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Giants Moneyline +102
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -138
4:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez is beginning to experience some regression with five runs or more allowed in two of his past four starts. His 2.71 ERA may be due for more regression, as he owns a 3.97 fielding independent with 6.1 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings. Rodriguez faces a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in road scoring with nearly 5.7 runs per game. Dodgers starting pitcher Justin Wrobleski may be due for a bit of regression too. He is allowing lots of contact with seven strikeouts per nine innings and owns a 3.31 ERA but a much higher 4.03 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs per nine innings.
Picks: Dodgers Moneyline -135 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -153 and Total 9.4
