South Point 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
The NASCAR Cup Series makes its annual playoff visit to Las Vegas on Sunday for the running of the South Point 400. The big story heading into the race is the recent awakening of a sleeping giant — Kyle Larson, who dominated at Kansas last week to make it two wins in the last three races. He didn’t visit Victory Lane once in the 26 races of the regular season. He has come to life lately, though, and with this week’s initial simulation showing him as the favorite, he may be just getting going. He was one of the preseason title favorites along with Denny Hamlin and is finally looking capable of fulfilling that destiny as he has taken the season lead with six races to go. His cushion over Hamlin is 26 points.
Of course, any time we mention mile-and-a-half oval tracks in the Cup Series, you have to consider Kyle Larson one of the top threats. After his win at Kansas, with this race up next and a visit to Charlotte next week, Larson has a real shot at enhancing his title chances. To no one’s surprise, he is the heavy favorite in the eyes of oddsmakers at DraftKings, at +350 odds. Larson has three career wins at LVMS, but none since 2024. Besides Larson, the drivers expected to fare well by both the odds and my projections are William Byron (second, +1000), Christopher Bell (third, +500) and Hamlin (fourth, +400).
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is termed a “cookie-cutter” track both because of its shape and because of its similarity to several other tracks that were built in the late 1990s. The Cup Series has been racing here since 1998, although I tend to limit my simulations and stat offerings to recent years. LVMS is similar to Kansas and Homestead-Miami, tracks Larson has dominated in recent seasons.
Larson has three career wins at LVMS, tied with Hamlin and Brad Keselowski. But Joey Logano leads active drivers with four wins here. As you’ll see below, though, Logano’s Team Penske hasn’t been as good here lately after dominating in the early part of the decade.
For the record, in terms of handicap-ability grades, Las Vegas gets a B, making it one of the top 14 tracks on the circuit in terms of handicap-ability. Does that mean we can trust the projections this week more than others? Theoretically, yes, but every race is unique, and lately, our simulation success has been greatly affected by the lack of practice and qualifying, as rain has wreaked havoc. Knock on wood, but rain in the desert in early October is quite unlikely, right?
Looking back closer at Kansas, things were pretty solid for our final simulation, even though we didn’t get the outright winner. The Top 3 and Top 10 projections were very strong, especially considering there were no on-track activities before Sunday’s green flag. With that in mind, this is how the Hollywood Casino 400 affected our season numbers to date.
Initial Kansas simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW -2.15 units for the season
Final Kansas Simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +30.05 units for the season (These are +86.85 units for the last two seasons!)
Final Kansas Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +10.35 units for the season
Final Kansas Simulation Top 3 drivers To Win: One winner, Two Losers – total return +1.5 units – NOW +9.65 units for the season (Larson was projected third)
Final simulation top 3 Kansas projections: two winners, one loser – total return +1.5 units – NOW -2.8 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Kansas projections: two winners, three losers – total return -1.4 units – Now -34.3 units for the season
We also scored a season-high-tying eight Top 10s and that brought back +4.7 units. If you recall, I discontinued recording those results last month when the Top 10 odds went off our feed regularly.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
Final simulation top 5 Kansas projections: two winners, three losers – total return -1.45 units – Now -54.35 units for the season
Top Kansas Longshots to win: four losers – total return -4 units – Now -20 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Kansas: Reddick (11th), Hocever (33rd), Bowman (18th), Berry (35th) – Now 86 for 121 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.
I had Larson to finish second in the race, so hopefully that helped steer some readers to him as a To Win option. My four favorites to struggle picks fared very well, with two finishing 33rd or worse.
Looking ahead to Las Vegas on Sunday, we’ll reference the results from the last four races at this track. The top guys in most categories seem to be Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson, but the names of Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and William Byron also come up often. … Remember, this is the second race at LVMS this season, and the weather conditions and starting time should be similar to what we had back in March. That should lend to teams that were successful in the Pennzoil 400 using similar recipes this week, and teams that weren’t perhaps taking bigger swings at something different. With a handicap-ability grade of B, hopefully our outright winner skid ends. That said, the top 3 simulation factors in order are 1) How drivers fare at similar tracks to Las Vegas 2) How drivers fare at Las Vegas 3) Qualifying. A note on No. 3: of the last 13 winners here, 12 started in the Top 10 spots.
Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Las Vegas
1. Christopher Bell: 4.5
2. Denny Hamlin: 5.5
3. Kyle Larson: 6.5
4. Alex Bowman: 7
5. William Byron: 7.75
6. Tyler Reddick: 7.75
…
25. Josh Berry: 24
26. Ricky Stenhouse: 25.75
27. Noah Gragson: 26
28. Brad Keselowski: 26.5
29. Riley Herbst: 29
30. Todd Gilliland: 29.75
Average PRACTICE SPEED RANK last four races at Las Vegas
1. Darrell Wallace: 4.25
2. William Byron: 5.75
3. Kyle Larson: 7.5
4. Tyler Reddick: 7.5
5. Christopher Bell: 8
6. Ross Chastain: 8.75
…
25. Todd Gilliland: 27.75
26. Joey Logano: 28.25
27. Ryan Preece: 28.25
28. Ryan Blaney: 28.75
29. Josh Berry: 31
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 31.25
Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Las Vegas
1. William Byron: 6.75
2. Christopher Bell: 7.5
3. Kyle Larson: 7.75
4. Alex Bowman: 10.33
5. Joey Logano: 10.5
6. Tyler Reddick: 11.25
…
25. Austin Dillon: 22.75
26. Josh Berry: 22.75
27. Ryan Blaney: 24.25
28. Riley Herbst: 24.33
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 27.25
30. Todd Gilliland: 28.25
Average FASTEST LAPS last four races at Las Vegas
1. Christopher Bell: 30
2. Kyle Larson: 25.5
3. Denny Hamlin: 20
4. William Byron: 18.75
5. Tyler Reddick: 15.5
6. Alex Bowman: 14
…
25. Austin Dillon: 0.75
26. Riley Herbst: 0.33
27. Zane Smith: 0
28. Erik Jones: 0
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
30. Todd Gilliland: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Las Vegas
1. Kyle Larson: 116.93
2. William Byron: 114.05
3. Christopher Bell: 110.88
4. Denny Hamlin: 101.2
5. Alex Bowman: 100.7
6. Tyler Reddick: 97.85
…
25. Ricky Stenhouse: 54.45
26. Erik Jones: 53.28
27. Austin Dillon: 51.75
28. Riley Herbst: 47.37
29. Todd Gilliland: 39.48
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 38.6
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Las Vegas
1. William Byron: 114.05
2. Christopher Bell: 110.88
3. Kyle Larson: 116.93
4. Alex Bowman: 100.7
5. Joey Logano: 96.28
6. Chris Buescher: 86.13
…
25. Josh Berry: 63
26. Shane Van Gisbergen: 38.6
27. Erik Jones: 53.28
28. Ricky Stenhouse: 54.45
29. Todd Gilliland: 39.48
30. Riley Herbst: 47.37
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Las Vegas
1. Christopher Bell: 5.25
2. Alex Bowman: 6.33
3. Kyle Larson: 7.25
4. Denny Hamlin: 8.75
5. Joey Logano: 9.25
6. Chris Buescher: 10.25
…
25. Noah Gragson: 23
26. Austin Dillon: 26.5
27. Carson Hocevar: 26.75
28. Todd Gilliland: 28.75
29. Ryan Blaney: 30.25
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 33
There are a couple of things to point out in these stats. First, it looks like this track has been dominated by the Hendrick Motorsports team in recent years. It has been a tough year for that organization as a whole, but collectively they seem to be putting it together in time to potentially grab another series title. Perhaps the most curious thing about these lists, however, is finding Ryan Blaney on the worst six on multiple occasions. For whatever reason, he has struggled at Las Vegas lately. Penske Racing no longer dominates here.
My top-rated drivers at Las Vegas, in order, are Larson, Byron, Hamlin, Reddick, Bell. For track designation, the order is Hamlin, Byron, Larson, Bell, Briscoe. In terms of recent ratings, the top 5 are Logano, Blaney, Larson, Bell, Hamlin. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice and qualifying, which is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Remember, qualifying has been fairly crucial lately at LVMS, so things could change, even at the top. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after P&Q), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Larson, Hamlin, Bell, Byron, Elliott
Top underdogs to consider (+1400 or more): Gibbs, Wallace, Elliott, Beuscher
Favorites to struggle: Logano, Blaney, Hocevar, Cindric
The 267-lap event at Las Vegas is set for 5:30 p.m. ET Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
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