The White Sox and Guardians played 13 times in the regular season. Chicago won seven and Cleveland won six. Chicago scored 57 runs. Cleveland scored 56. But, it was the Guardians who took two out of three in the pivotal September series that set the stage for Cleveland’s opportunity to win the AL Central for the third straight season.
The Guardians were among the league’s hottest teams heading into the playoffs. While the bye is definitely a bonus, especially for a Cleveland team that uses its bullpen heavily and only really goes two deep in the starting rotation, it can be tough to stay sharp while others are still playing. The White Sox rolled over the Astros, scoring 13 runs in the process. The Guardians simply rested and waited to see who their opponent in the ALDS would be. Incredibly, these two teams have never faced each other in a playoff series. Both teams began play in 1901. Now, they’ll play with a trip to the ALCS on the line.
The unfortunate thing for Cleveland is that they do not profile as a good playoff team because of their complete lack of power. Only the Brewers hit fewer home runs during the regular season. And we’ve seen how many times the Brewers have had very good regular-season teams, but haven’t done much of anything in the postseason or haven’t been able to completely get over the hump. The White Sox were fifth in home runs, so they do fit the mold a bit better.
White Sox vs. Guardians ALDS Odds
Guardians -140 // White Sox +120
Total Games: 4.5 (+150/-190)
White Sox vs. Guardians ALDS Schedule
Game 1 @ CLE: Saturday, October 3, 1 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)
Game 2 @ CLE: Monday, October 5, 5 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)
Game 3 @ CWS: Wednesday, October 7, 4 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)
Game 4 @ CWS: Thursday, October 8, 5 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV) – if necessary
Game 5 @ CLE: Saturday, October 10, 5 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV) – if necessary
White Sox vs. Guardians Offense
Edge: White Sox
Despite Cleveland’s offensive explosion over the final week of the season, this is not a very good offensive ballclub. To make matters worse, Jose Ramirez suffered a broken hamate bone, came back without a rehab assignment, and had a really poor year by his lofty standards. He only batted .230/.325/.368 and only slashed .229/.296/.302 after his return. Furthermore, he only had two Barrels for a 1.1% Barrel% over those 184 batted balls. If he doesn’t perform in this series or over Cleveland’s time in the playoffs, it is going to be very difficult for them.
Where Cleveland makes up for their lack of power is by putting a lot of balls in play and running the bases effectively. They had 146 steals, which ranked seventh in the league. They also had the fifth-lowest K%. They put a lot of pressure on the opposition by forcing them to make plays defensively and also had a BB% north of 9%. In the specialized playoff environment, it is hard to live like that. Fewer pitchers are used. Managers are more aggressive about pulling starters. Guys are throwing harder and are actively looking for more strikeouts. That’s why the long ball is such a great equalizer.
This tweet from Opta Stats pretty much sums up the Guardians well.
Cleveland’s leader in home runs (Angel Martinez) had 18. The White Sox had three players with 30+ HR. It will be up to the Guardians to keep the ball in the park. In fairness, it might help that it’s cooling off in both Cleveland and Chicago and the early forecast for the first two games in Cleveland shows a breeze blowing in off the lake. They’ll have to try to neutralize Chicago’s power and Mother Nature could be providing a helping hand.
The thing I talked about at length with Chicago prior to their series against Houston is how they make a lot of good swing decisions. They will strike out. They were 26th in K%. But, they will also walk, as they were sixth in BB%. The strikeouts weren’t a byproduct of chasing bad pitches. They did swing and miss at the second-highest rate at pitches in the strike zone, but had the sixth-lowest Chase Rate. The Yankees swing and miss a lot in the zone and we saw what they did to the Red Sox. Chicago just trades some long swings for power and that’s a trade that you’re willing to make more often than not.
White Sox vs. Guardians Pitching
Edge: Guardians
With 13 head-to-head meetings, the Guardians slashed .233/.322/.368 against White Sox pitching. The White Sox slashed .237/.325/.409 against Guardians pitching. But, it should be noted that Williams and Messick combined for 57 strikeouts in 46 innings against the White Sox, allowing 17 runs on 36 hits. That’s good for a 3.33 ERA. Because of the way that the off days shake out, there’s a good chance that Messick and Williams can get two starts each if the series goes five games.
Sean Burke and Anthony Kay really shut down the Guardians, who employ platoons at a higher rate than anybody else in the league. The White Sox are one of the more left-handed-heavy pitching staffs in baseball and they had no hesitation sending out Kay, Sean Newcomb, or Hagen Smith in games against the Guards. I would expect those four pitchers to be used pretty aggressively by manager Will Venable.
The Guardians do boast a bullpen advantage here, at least to some degree. Cade Smith and Erik Sabrowski are pretty reliable. Hunter Gaddis has his moments. But, the Guardians do have issues in middle relief. Craig Yoho was horrible against the White Sox in his appearances and Tim Herrin is a guy who walks a lot of batters. Basically, for Cleveland to flex a bullpen advantage, they’re going to need Messick and Williams to give them innings.
Cleveland finished the regular season sixth in reliever ERA, while the White Sox were eighth. The bigger gap came in FIP, where the Guardians were fifth and the White Sox were 16th. This is the type of series where little things can become big things. That was Cleveland’s most endearing characteristic, as fielding miscues and other brain farts were things that they seemingly took advantage of as the season went along. Meanwhile, while the White Sox can do that, too, they just mostly hit big homers or slugged doubles.
Like I said, the degree of Cleveland’s advantage will be contingent on how exposed the middle relievers will get, which could create some live betting opportunities.
White Sox vs. Guardians Miscellaneous Notes
Chicago and Cleveland were both above average fielding teams. The White Sox were 10th in Outs Above Average and the Guardians were 13th. Cleveland does have to sometimes sacrifice defense a bit for offense and Travis Bazzana has proven to not be a very good defender at second base. With a pretty left-handed-heavy White Sox lineup, Bazzana’s defense may be a focal point of this series on pulled ground balls.
Stephen Vogt has been very good about leveraging his relievers and finding pinch-hitting advantages over his three seasons as manager. But, that’s also contingent on the players performing. The process matters more than the results, but the process looks smarter when the players in question also produce. Because of Cleveland’s 26-man strategy with all hands on deck, that’ll be on display here as well. I do love how Venable used Grant Taylor in Game 1 against Houston and he could do the same against Cleveland, but the jury is still out a bit on his postseason acumen. At least Vogt has been there twice.
White Sox vs. Guardians ALDS Prediction
Lean: White Sox +120
This series has a wide range of outcomes to me and I would expect stressful, pressure-packed games. These two teams matched up evenly during the regular season and know each other inside and out. Chicago’s ability to hit for power could be the separator in the series, but the weather could play a factor in how much the ball carries.
Like most young teams, Chicago performed much better at home, posting a 48-33 record. On the road, though, the Sox were 36-45 and they are the visiting team for the first two games of this series. I do worry about Cleveland’s ability to stay sharp, but opening the series at home is a big deal for them, even though they actually had a slightly better road record.
This series doesn’t feature a ton of household names and may not be the cleanest and crispest series you will ever see, but it should not lack drama, that’s for sure.
Other series previews: Yankees/Rays | Braves/Dodgers | Padres/Brewers
