2024 College World Series Betting Preview
The road to Omaha and how the eight teams got to the College World Series is precisely what college baseball needed to raise awareness for both fans and bettors. During the Super Regionals, Evansville forced top-seeded Tennessee into a Game 3. Then there was the epic Florida Game 2 win at Clemson to knock off the Tigers. All followed by North Carolina State winning the Monday If Necessary game against Georgia in Athens.
Bettors got what they wanted. With the College World Series in sight and more live lines available than ever before, there were plenty of barking underdogs. Still, the eight tickets for Omaha were written in chalk, evenly split between the SEC and ACC.
Dogs are fun to track and provide some thrills. In the end, though, power conference affiliation with high seeds is a massive betting variable in college baseball.
Of the two lower seeds to win their Super Regional, one came from the SEC (Florida), so of course, the other came from the ACC (NC State).
As even as these power conferences are in terms of quantity, bookmakers favor the SEC’s quality.
Texas A&M (+250)
Tennessee (+350)
Kentucky (+470)
North Carolina (+650)
Florida State (+850)
Virginia (+1000)
North Carolina State (+1100)
Florida (+1300)
DraftKings set the line on the winning conference to -195 for the SEC and +160 for the ACC.
Here is an important note to consider, especially for those just starting to wager on college baseball. Futures plays first needed to be made weeks ago.
Prior to the start of the conference tournaments, the Aggies were around 10-1 and Tennessee was slightly higher than that. Kentucky was one of the top-ranked teams in the nation yet priced over 20-1. Even when Virginia was sending a .300 hitter to the plate just about every at-bat, a Cavs’ 30-1 ticket was readily available.
Next year, consider moving a portion of college basketball futures winnings into the beginning of a college baseball portfolio. Add along the way, because with a double-elimination format and viable College World Series teams priced well over 20-1, you can be like Mike (Palm, that is) and monetize tickets.
Setting the Stage
Before backing the Aggies solely based on them being the shortest shot on the board, realize the home-field advantage they thrive on in College Station is gone. Perhaps just as important, star player Braden Montgomery suffered a broken right ankle against Oregon and is done for the year.
While on the topic of venues, the Omaha weather and what it can do inside Charles Schwab Field will play a large role. For the past month, the greater Omaha area has been extremely windy. Expect more wind and humidity. That should reduce the amount of runs scored during the CWS. During the first two rounds of the tournament, run lines in the range of 13.5 to 15.5 were common. Don’t expect teams to produce the same way they were when games were on campus. Here are the average run totals per game for the past three College World Series – 2021: 10.2; 2022: 11; 2023: 9.5.
Last year, the weather significantly helped reduce the total number of runs scored. The final two games of the championship series between LSU and Florida (28 and 22) helped skew these numbers higher than they truly were over the course of the College World Series.
Overall, the run totals tend to be higher during the early stages of the CWS when teams not facing elimination are trailing in a game and use lesser arms to help preserve the bullpen. As the brackets progress, scoring tends to drop. So when making individual game wagers during the College World Series, check the weather app for the Omaha forecast.
Let’s take a look at the two different brackets, with the winner from each moving on to the championship series.
Bracket 1
Game 1: North Carolina vs. Virginia, June 14, 1:00 p.m.
Game 2: Tennessee vs. Florida State, June 14, 6:00 p.m.
Bracket 2
Game 1: Kentucky vs. North Carolina State, June 15, 1:00 p.m.
Game 2: Texas A&M vs. Florida, June 15, 6:00 p.m.
Bracket 1 Breakdown
Bettors analyzing this bracket are going to deal with the chatter of an angel on one shoulder and the pessimism of the devil on the other.
The Volunteers’ powerful offense led the nation with 173 home runs. They have scored close to 11 runs per game so far during the tournament. Of course you want to back a team with Billy Amick in the lineup.
The other voice is going to stress that the top seeded team in this tournament has won it all only once (Miami), and Tony Vitello’s club has a recent history of lofty expectations falling short. Also, as good as Tennessee is offensively, the pitching staff has some issues.
CWS veteran Drew Beam hasn’t had a good tournament so far. He failed to make it past four innings against Indiana and got touched up by the Purple Aces. Chris Stamos, used as an opener, has also struggled during tournament play. Most of the innings should then fall to AJ Causey, the team’s top bullpen option with 117 strikeouts this season.
Back to that voice saying positive things about the Vols — in the opening game, they are playing Florida State, a team that also looks to win via the bats. The 5-0 Seminoles come into Game 1 after sweeping Connecticut. They also like the long ball and have hit 123 home runs—a great number, but still 50 fewer than their Game 1 foe.
Based on how well FSU has played, and ACC player of the year James Tibbs III heating up, the 9-1 price range out there is one I want to recommend. However, I can’t do that since FSU is likely moving straight to the losers bracket.
From a futures standpoint, I would stay away from either team. For those who think FSU can keep the hot tournament play going, take them at +140 at DraftKings for Game 1.
If the Noles at 9-1 win the College World Series, it will most likely take a Game 1 win against Tennessee to do. Indications from Link Jarrett is that fireballing lefty Jamie Arnold will start the game.
For those wishing to sing Rocky Top in a few weeks, look to pair the Vols with another team on the other side of the bracket for a championship series appearance parlay. It creates a ticket with a higher payout and might allow for the chance to monetize.
There is a futures play with value in mind for another team in Bracket 1. That is UNC, available to futures bettors in the 7-1 range. The Diamond Heels open up against familiar ACC foe Virginia. UVA taking two of three earlier in the year against UNC means little in this new context.
While both teams are able to put up runs, UNC has possibly the best pitching staff in the tournament. They led the ACC with a 4.22 ERA and have, on average, given up just less than 5 runs during their tournament games. If the trend of lower-scoring CWS games continues, a ticket with pitching in mind is somewhat of a value-laden contrarian play.
Freshman ace Jason DeCaro (6.1 IP, 1 R) was strong against West Virginia in his last outing. No. 2 starter Shea Sprague is effective from the left side. Pitching from DeCaro is what UNC, the favorite, will need to beat the ACC’s top offensive team. UVA has gotten a boost on the mound from righty Jay Woolfolk of late.
Another reason to consider a Diamond Heels future play is star outfielder Vance Honeycutt’s ability to deliver in the clutch. That is exactly what he did with a walkoff home run against WVU in the Chapel Hill Super Regional. A UNC ticket might be valuable insurance for those who previously backed Tennessee in the futures market.
Playing them at -140 (DraftKings) on the ML against UVA is based on the importance of pitching in Omaha.
Bracket 2 Breakdown
Keeping the pitching theme going, NC State used it, particularly from starter Sam Highfill and reliever Andrew Shaffner, to help pull off the upset in the Athens Super Regional.
Offensively, the veteran Wolfpack are led by Alec Makarewicz, who so far during the NCAA tournament is hitting .414. They also have Jacob Cozart, often referred to as the best catcher in the country. In Game 1, NC State faces Kentucky in the Wildcats first ever CWS appearance.
Both teams are similar qualitatively (neither is particularly dominant in one area) and quantitatively. NC State’s team batting average of .289 is just slightly better than UK’s .287. Same with slugging percentages of .496 for Kentucky and .495 for the Pack. There is not much difference in runs per game as well — 8.0 for UK and 7.7 for NC State.
The biggest factor separating these two is UK’s ability to steal bases. On average they steal two bags a game and will challenge Cozart whenever a runner gets on. On the mound, the advantage goes to the Wildcats who will likely start Trey Pooser in Game 1.
I don’t see much value with either team futures wise. However I do like Kentucky on the ML (-145 DraftKings) because of Pooser.
Kentucky’s ability to manufacture runs should come into play when the other power-hitting teams feel like the outfield walls keep getting further away as the wind picks up.
Even without Montgomery and their raucous fans filling the stands, Texas A&M should still be the favorite.
The Aggies led the nation in drawing walks and are Top 10 nationally in both home runs and slugging percentage. Jace LaViolette and his 28 homers will be the focus of the offense with Montgomery on the shelf.
On the mound the Aggies rely on Evan Aschenbeck, the best reliever in Omaha with his sub 2.00 ERA. Texas A&M’s bullpen is now vital to the team’s chances since they will be without lefty starter Shane Sdao who is out with an injury.
In Game 1, the Aggies will face Florida who will counter with Jac Caglianone and momentum. The Gators’ stud lefty power threat is the main reason they went from underdogs in Stillwater and Clemson to making it to Omaha.
Based on their pedigree and hot play, bettors may be intrigued by their 13-1 longshot status. If that is you, look instead to play them on ML (+150 DraftKings) per game rather than locking into a win-it-all ticket.
The Gators rely heavily upon multiple freshman pitchers.
Bettors should not feel required to purchase a futures ticket on an underdog before the College World Series starts. The tournament format leads to a championship series where books will once again post a team with a plus number – less ROI, but also less risk.
Regardless of how long Florida can hang around in Omaha, its appearance there should be noteworthy for all types of bettors.
The Gators mediocre regular season record earned them the ninth seed in the SEC tournament, and a surprise to some, an at-large NCAA tournament berth. In the new era of consolidated Super Super Major Power Conferences, how we view regular season records in relation to postseason potential must change. When all the top teams in the nation are jammed together in only a few conferences, even national championship contenders can be buried in the standings.
Square it Up
If a bettor wanted to make just one College World Series wager, even at -195, there is value on the SEC to win. A point I have stressed regarding wagering on college baseball is to be prepared and not afraid to lay plenty of juice.
