2025 College Baseball
Excuse me while I make my annual trip to the VSiN pulpit to preach about the betting virtues of college baseball.
While the congregation has expanded over the years, there is still plenty of room for converts.
College baseball futures can provide some salvation for those who follow the holy doctrine.
Bank on an SEC team to win the College World Series.
When eight teams make their pilgrimage to Omaha in mid-June, it will be dominated by SEC squads, and the last one standing on the mountaintop very likely will be a representative of that aforementioned parish.
Unlike postseason futures on college football or basketball teams, there is also the possibility of resurrection as the regionals, super regionals and CWS allow for double elimination.
Can I get an amen?
Now let’s examine the college baseball futures market by keying in on the gospel according to Tennessee, LSU, Texas A&M and Arkansas.
Major League
There is no secret on how to handicap College World Series futures. It starts and ends with the SEC. After Tennessee’s win last year, eight conference members have won the CWS, and since 2010, the SEC has captured nine of the last 14 championships.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Tennessee (+700)
The defending champs are the short-shot current favorites after finally validating all the support bettors have placed on this program over the past few years. The Volunteers do lose several key contributors from last season, including offensive stars Christian Moore, Billy Amick, Blake Burke, Dylan Dreiling and pitchers Drew Beam and AJ Causey.
Tony Vitello’s squad will still have shortstop Dean Curley and starting pitcher Nate Snead in Knoxville. As would be expected, the Vols made a haul in the transfer portal (seventh best in the country according to Baseball America) by nabbing infielder Gavin Kilen (Louisville) along with Andrew Fischer (3B) and Liam Doyle (LHP) from rival Mississippi.
Tennessee recently made news by announcing the addition of Alberto Osuna to the roster. The one-time North Carolina standout made a late transition up to the SEC after originally being with D2 Tampa to start the year. The loophole allowing the first baseman to play Division I after previously running out of eligibility is his time at a junior college.
As critics of the current state of college athletics complain about the quasi-free agency happening because of the portal, Osuna now joining Tennessee sure looks like the Dodgers calling up a prized prospect from another organization’s Triple-A team.
The new-look Vols should once again challenge for a title and attempt to be the first school since South Carolina (2010 and 2011) to go back-to-back. However, that doesn’t mean bettors need to get a ticket on them anytime soon.
At 7-1, there is no value on them atop the odds board. That number is based more on last year’s achievements rather than the 2025 projection.
Not that it should be the primary handicapping factor, but still one to take into consideration, most preseason rankings don’t have the Vols as the No.1 team.
Tennessee futures tickets make more sense later in the regular season when more money comes into the market and perhaps moving LSU or Texas A&M above them on the odds board.
LSU (+800)
When CWS futures were first posted in December, I immediately placed a wager on the Tigers at 12-1. My rationale was LSU was being overlooked for Tennessee, and the Tigers have a fantastic transfer class coming into the Bayou. The 12-1 is gone, but if you can still find LSU’s odds near double digits, then get it now.
The Tigers have several elements that make them attractive to futures bettors. A winning coach in Jay Johnson, Jared Jones (28 HRs in 2024) returning with some others from a team that never really hit its stride last year yet still won three NCAA tournament games. The transfer group includes bats (Daniel Dickinson and Luis Hernandez) and arms (Zac Cowan and Anthony Eyanson).
If you are only going to make one CWS futures bet this year, consider investing in LSU.
Texas A&M (+850)
The Aggies are ranked No.1 with a deep lineup built around Jace LaViolette, arguably the best player in the nation. There is little reason to believe this program won’t once again run through the tournament on its way to Omaha.
Here are two reasons not to run to the window and get an Aggies ticket now. They have a new coach in Michael Earley, who replaces Jim Schlossnagle, and pitcher Evan Aschenbeck is no longer in College Station to close out games.
Earley, the former hitting coach, takes over a championship-or-bust team and finds himself in a Kalen DeBoer-like situation.
One way to handle the Aggies is to hold off to see if they face any early-season adversity. They are part of the Astros Foundation College Classic that includes Arizona and Oklahoma State. Perhaps some unexpected losses for a team with such high expectations could lead to an odds increase in March or April.
Still, before the CWS, most bettors will want some Texas A&M exposure.
Arkansas (+1500)
There is a certain Gonzaga and Mark Few feel to the Razorbacks and Dave Van Horn. Both are marquee programs with great coaches that consistently get close to a championship but never cut down the nets dogpile in the end. If Arkansas is once again in position to win it all, it will be a result of its pitching. Gabe Gaeckle (2.32 ERA in 2024) is joined on the mound by lefty Zach Root, an East Carolina transfer who could be one of the SEC’s best offseason pickups.
The pitching will be there, but it will take some consistent late-season hitting to make this finally Van Horn’s year.
The other SEC teams come in tiers after this crew of the top contenders. Florida (+2200), no longer with Jac Caglianone to rely on, is joined by Texas (+2800) with Schlossnagle in the dugout. Then comes Georgia (+3100), Kentucky (+3500), Mississippi State (+4000) and Vanderbilt (+4000).
All are in play.
If a book was to offer an SEC-against-the-field market right now, it would come with a steep minus price. That minus price would still be a recommended play.
In the two hole
The ACC is one of the best conferences in college baseball. However, with only one CWS championship over the last 10 played, they take on the role of Robin.
Virginia (+1200)
The last ACC team to win it all was Virginia in 2015.
Don’t be surprised if the next ACC squad to pull off this feat is once again Brian O’Connor’s Cavaliers.
This program consistently wins, has a team batting average well north of .300 and makes yearly summer trips to Omaha. UVA is working on back-to-back CWS appearances and five total since 2014. From a betting perspective, this consistency makes them a sound investment.
This should be a ticket bettors add to their portfolio before the start of the regular season on February 14.
Their odds at DK have dropped over the past two weeks, but look around for the 16-1 that is still out there.
Jacob Ference and his gaudy .350 batting average return to Charlottesville where there is little doubt this team will continue to rake offensively. The issues for UVA have always been pitching-related. There is growing confidence Evan Blanco will maintain his ace status and Jay Woolfolk, who provided a lift last season, can give this team the 1-2 combo needed to finally make noise in Omaha, not just get there.
North Carolina (+1800)
If last year’s ACC champ gets back to Omaha, it will be without Vance Honeycutt, who is in the Orioles organization.
Unlike UVA, the Tar Heels win with their pitching staff. Jason DeCaro (6-1, 3.41 ERA, 78 strikeouts) had a strong freshman season and should be an even better sophomore. Also returning is the versatile Aidan Haugh (61 Ks), who can fit a number of roles for the staff.
Florida State (+2200)
Link Jarrett’s upwardly mobile team will once again push for an ACC title and look to host a super regional. Definitely a possibility with one of the nation’s best arms in Jamie Arnold (105 IP) and Max Williams (14 HRs) leading the offense.
Clemson (+3000)
The Tigers are a deeper shot with value since they are one of the conference’s top teams but jumbled in with a number of ACC foes on the odds board. Erik Bakich’s team has All-America talent on the mound with Aidan Knaak (108 Ks) and in the batter’s box with Cam Cannarella (11 HRs).
The crowded ACC field also includes Wake Forest (+2800), North Carolina State (+4500) and Duke (+4500).
Everyone else
Sure the Big Ten and Big 12 also play in the high-roller room, but recent history indicates even those two big guys are looking up at the SEC and then ACC like the rest of the pack.
As the best of the West in the still-standing Pac-12 Conference, Oregon State (+2500) is simultaneously rebuilding and contending. This team is good enough to get nearly 40 wins even without Travis Bazzana, who was the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. Gavin Turley (19 HRs) will lead the Beavers’ offense.
The Big 12’s best squad appears to be Oklahoma State (+3000). The Cowboys feature one of the strongest left-handed bats in the country in Nolan Schubart (23 HRs). Expect to hear a lot about his MLB potential this season.
In its first Big Ten season, Oregon (+6500) is the early favorite. The Ducks, coming off a super regional berth a year ago, are led by veteran Mason Neville (16 HRs).
Dallas Baptist (+8000) should dominate Conference USA foes this season. A cheap Patriots ticket always finds its way into my portfolio because this program has power conference talent but high preseason odds because it resides in the shadows of the SEC and Big 12.
Going even further down, nothing wrong with an inexpensive lottery ticket on the likes of UC Irvine (+8000), UC Santa Barbara (+9000) and Nebraska (+15000).
By the numbers
While college baseball presents a good opportunity to make small investments on high-odds teams with the hopes of monetizing them in a double-elimination tournament, bettors still need to be realistic.
First, every year in the NIL age, the chances of a long shot like Oral Roberts making it to Omaha diminishes. Players outside the Power 4 conferences are hoping a good season will be a springboard into the portal, then landing with a bigger program the following year. This migration pattern is just widening the gap between the marquee programs and everyone else.
Looking at the 40 participants of the last five College World Series, 18 came from the SEC, 11 from the ACC, five from the Big 12 and one from the Big Ten. The other five are from other conferences including the Pac-12. The Big 12 representatives included Texas, which is now in the SEC.
That means 73% of all CWS teams came from the SEC and ACC, so any futures bets must take that into account.
Other markets
The books have just as much confidence as bettors that the SEC and ACC will dominate the CWS field. That is why the numbers posted on the “Make the College World Series” board are so minuscule.
With odds like Tennessee (-105), LSU (+110), Texas A&M (+120), UNC (+190), Virginia (+190) and Arkansas (+210), the return just isn’t there for tying up units that long.
Perhaps these odds could be best used to help prop up a cross-sport futures parlay.
DraftKings is now making this market available at the start of the season so this is a viable place to wager on long shots with the hopes of monetizing them.
UC Irvine (+650), UC Santa Barbara (+750), Dallas Baptist (+750) and Troy (+950) all have value since they are their conference’s best teams and could host/win a regional. If that happens, let the monetization process begin.
Irvine and Santa Barbara will fight each other for the Big West title.
Most of the major national sportsbooks are listing their regular-season conference winner odds. It tend to avoid that market because many schools don’t overly value regular-season titles with the NCAA tournament being the top priority.
Of the past five CWS winners (all SEC teams), only one, Vandy (2019), captured the regular-season title outright.
The Golden Spikes Award — the Heisman for college baseball players — is a market out there but tough to find. Odds-wise, Texas A&M star Jace LaViolette (+500) is the favorite followed by FSU pitcher Jaime Arnold (+700). It might appear square, but LaViolette would be a good early addition to the futures portfolio. Remember this sport is top-heavy in terms of regionality and media coverage.
The Aggies and their star player will get a lot of attention this season. As for true one-way pitchers, only three have won the award since Stephen Strasburg did in 2009.
Last season, Jac Caglianone started the season as a 5-1 favorite. His chances of winning were hurt by the Gators’ mediocre regular season and the eventual recipient, Charlie Condon of Georgia, hitting 37 bombs. Condon began the season near the top of the odds board at 10-1.
For a bettor looking for a similar scenario to take place this year, Clemson’s power source Cam Cannarella (+1100) can provide that value-based play.
Rintaro Sasaki, the Japanese high school sensation now at Stanford, is laughably over-priced (+3100) since there is so much interest in his debut.
Other thoughts
I reached out to noted college baseball handicapper Matt Grissom (@GrissomOnX), co-founder of College Baseball Insiders, for his insight.
In his own words, here is how he is approaching the futures market.
When determining futures, I focus on three key factors for identifying a team that can reach Omaha and win it all.
1. Solid pitching staff
A team must have a dependable pitching staff. If you can take the mound with a true ace and a reliable Game 2 starter, you’re already ahead of 70% of the field.
2. Consistent hitting
I don’t need a lineup full of Bryce Harpers, but I do need a few glue guys — players who can grind out at-bats, steal a base and get in scoring position for the guys who can hit the ball over your head.
3. Favorable schedule
When it comes to the path to Omaha, few things are more important than earning a regional or super-regional hosting position. Securing home-field advantage through the postseason begins with having a good record and good RPI. So I look at favorable schedules for teams that can get to that 40-win mark.
When you consider all of these factors, a few teams stand out:
Virginia (+1200 on DK)
The SEC has dominated the College World Series over the past decade, so picking an ACC team to win it all might seem bold. However, when you’re looking for balance and experience, the Cavaliers are hard to ignore. Ranked No. 2 to start the season, Virginia has all the ingredients to win.
Although their odds have nearly been cut in half since opening, I still see value in buying a piece of the Cavaliers. Brian O’Connor practically has a second home in Omaha and knows exactly what it takes to succeed there. With a formidable 1-2 pitching punch in Evan Blanco and Jay Woolfolk, Virginia is well-positioned to return to Omaha and make a deep run.
Arkansas (+1500 on DK)
The Razorbacks — often nicknamed the “Omahogs” — are no strangers to Omaha. However, the past two years have been rough for Dave Van Horn’s squad, with back-to-back eliminations in their own regional despite boasting one of the top pitching staffs.
Once again, Arkansas will enter the season with one of the deepest and most talented pitching staffs in the country. But the key question remains: Can they generate enough offense when it matters most? That has been their Achilles’ heel. However, with key transfers like Logan Maxwell and Brent Iredale, paired with returning youngsters in Wehiwa Aloy, Nolan Souza and Ryder Helfrick, Arkansas could have a much more balanced lineup to complement its pitching staff. I expect the Razorbacks to figure out that balance this season and bet back to Omaha with a good shot at winning it all.
Georgia (+3100 on FanDuel)
Looking further down the board, Georgia caught my eye as a team that could surprise people. Yes, the Bulldogs lost Golden Spikes winner Charlie Condon, but their lineup is still capable of making a postseason run. What sets this year’s team apart is the improvement on the mound.
With returning arms like Kolten Smith and Leighton Finley, combined with Ole Miss transfer JT Quinn, coach Wes Johnson is assembling a pitching staff with plenty of experience and potential. If these arms can provide stability, Georgia will be a legitimate contender to make it to Omaha and possibly go all the way.
Putting it together
Here is an early-season betting strategy for college baseball. Make a financial stake in both an ACC and SEC team. The reason is that one or both will very likely be in Omaha.
From there, split a unit into multiple pieces and think about other smaller bets such as Oklahoma State or TCU (+3500) out of the Big 12, higher-priced SEC and ACC teams, and keep a little left over for longer shots like DBU, Irvine, Santa Barbara or Troy with the notion of monetizing those cheap tickets.
Finally, keep some units handy for midweek non-conference games when the plus dog travels to its larger regional rival with more motivation than the listed favorite.
Now go in peace and enjoy the college baseball season.
