Finding Value in the College Baseball Futures Market:
At this point in the spring, it usually takes a lot to shift sports bettors’ attention away from all the playoff action in both the NBA and NHL, along with the MLB season now taking shape. Horse racing’s Triple Crown can do it for a bit. Another sporting event bettors should carve out some time and units for is the remaining portion of the college baseball regular season, leading up to the NCAA tournament. The clock is ticking on this one since casual bettors will eventually make their way over to the college baseball futures board.
While much of the value has already been eaten up by the proactive population (which I repeatedly recommend here and on the VSiN airwaves that you should be a member of), let’s take a look at some possible plays before the Road to Omaha officially begins.
Leading Off
No matter when bettors attack the College World Series market, it begins with deciding what SEC team(s) to select for a portfolio. This is the conference that overwhelmingly dominates college baseball with five straight titles and nine of the last 14.
With the regular season ending on May 17, the DraftKings CWS futures board is top-heavy with SEC names.
Currently, it is Arkansas (+400) as the short favorite, followed by Tennessee (+650), LSU (+750), Georgia (+1000), Texas A&M (+1400), Texas (+1800), and Vanderbilt (+2000). The outlier mixing in near the top is North Carolina (+1600).
Behind this group come other ACC squads, including Clemson (+2500), Georgia Tech (+2500) and Florida State (+2500).
Oregon State (+3000) and UCLA (+3500) represent the West.
The Razorbacks, Volunteers, and Tigers have all shuffled around this season as the top favorite. Arkansas now holds that distinction with its 40 wins and dominating series performance against the Longhorns a week ago. They also have the roster composition of a championship team with the Hawaiian bash brothers Wehiwa Aloy and Kuhio Aloy leading the offense and three excellent arms in the rotation (Zach Root, Landon Beidelschies and Gabe Gaeckle).
This Arkansas squad appears to be the one that could finally earn Dave Van Horn a CWS title. However, at 4-1, the value has been drained. Compare this to last season, when Tennessee ended the regular season as the shortest favorite with higher odds (+550).
A nod to those who watch this board regularly, the Hogs were 10-1 last week after they dropped three straight series.
Here are how these top SEC teams compare against each other in some main statistical categories.
Arkansas
.316 batting average
102 HRs
3.75 ERA
185 runs against
Tennessee
.305 batting average
107 HRs
3.47 ERA
193 runs against
LSU
.306 batting average
75 HRs
3.74 ERA
199 runs against
Georgia
.287 batting average
119 HRs
4.72 ERA
247 runs against
Texas A&M
.273 batting average
79 HRs
4.17 ERA
210 runs against
Texas
.282 batting average
74 HRs
3.49 ERA
191 runs against
Vanderbilt
.269 batting average
48 HRs
3.78 ERA
194 runs against
Florida
.296 batting average
81 HRs
5.01 ERA
265 runs against
Compare these numbers with the averages of the past four national champions, all from the SEC.
2021-24 champs
.293 batting average
127 HRs
4.15 ERA
310 runs against
First off, these stats are important for handicapping because the bulk of them came during SEC play, meaning it was against the best players in the country. Secondly, it shows how close these teams are to one another.
So, for those who really need Arkansas in their portfolio before the postseason begins, it must happen soon because Pig Sooie will be a popular play for the public who wants some action and naturally gravitates towards the favorite.
Otherwise, look at LSU with its higher odds. The Tigers compare well with Arkansas as they are No.2 in the SEC in batting average, hits and doubles. This past weekend in one of the SEC’s biggest series, LSU took two of three from the Razorbacks. I backed LSU in the preseason and still think the Tigers are the best play, especially after how they looked against Arkansas.
Jay Johnson can repeatedly call up Zac Cowan and his sub-2.00 ERA. The righty is one of the best relievers in the nation and a vital asset in the postseason when he can be used in a number of roles. Cowan got the win Friday night for the Bayou Bengals, going three innings in relief.
Best of the Rest
While the SEC gets most of the mentions, the ACC also sent four teams to Omaha last year. This season, the top tier featuring UNC, FSU, Clemson, and Georgia Tech are all legitimate contenders to be one of the final eight standing.
An intriguing ACC betting option is Miami (+10000). The Hurricanes are worth a small flier after they turned their slow start into being one of the hottest teams in the country during May. Not long ago, these odds were at 200-1. Miami should get a No. 2 or No. 3 seed during the regionals. If they can emerge from there, that triple-digit ticket is in a position to be monetized.
Outside of the SEC and ACC, any school, even the Big 12’s best clubs, West Virginia (+6500) and Arizona State (+10000), are longshots.
There are a number of non-power conference clubs who will look to be this year’s Oral Roberts and earn a CWS bid. The best candidates include Coastal Carolina (+3500), Dallas Baptist (+4000) and UC Irvine (+7500).
Back to the SEC, Florida (+3000) is now on the national radar after taking a series from Texas this past weekend. This is just another way the Gators have continued an impressive second half of the season. Florida has captured five consecutive series and will draw betting action from those desiring a higher-odds SEC team.
Since college baseball tends to be a softer market compared to the other current action, make sure to look around for the best odds. This sport has perhaps the most variance of odds between the major national books.
For example, the +750 DK offers on LSU looks a lot better than FanDuel’s +550.
As if you should need any more motivation to make it to Circa in Las Vegas, its CWS futures board offers more girth than most shops.
Conference Tournaments
While most conference tournaments start in about a week, don’t expect many books to hang numbers on them. This isn’t an easy market to find, with BetRivers and Caesars usually being the only options.
As much as the top SEC and ACC teams would like to add some trophies to their collections, these squads won’t compromise their arms in the tournament before the tournament. Last year, the Volunteers did win a title in Hoover and then one in Omaha, but the only other SEC team to win the conference tournament during its recent CWS dominance was Vanderbilt in 2019.
The Commodores and Oklahoma (+9000) may be the best value options to make a run in Hoover. Vandy appears to be on the 8/9 national range seed line, so a SEC tournament crown would give them a boost. The Sooners are a strong No. 2 seed and could push for the top spot in a regional with an SEC championship.
Keep an eye out for Virginia (+15000) in the ACC tournament. The Cavaliers came into this year as one of the top choices to win it all, but have suffered through a tough regular season. As of now, they are on the outside of an at-large bid and need a strong tournament showing to boost an RPI currently at 58.
With a team batting average north of .300 and a versatile ace like Jay Wooklfork, UVA can stay hot and win the much-needed ACC tournament.
The best action may be in the Sun Belt and Conference USA, since each has strong contenders challenging the leader. In the Sun Belt, Coastal Carolina will be pushed by Southern Mississippi (+15000) and Troy (+20000), while in Conference USA, DBU will feel heat from Kennesaw State (+50000) and Western Kentucky (+12000).
College Baseball Regionals
A major part of handicapping college baseball futures is examining which 16 teams are in line to host a regional and which ones are in the top eight, putting them in position to host a super regional.
The best source for this information is dibaseball.com.
Based on d1baseball’s latest projections, here are its top 16 seeds.
Texas (1)
Arkansas (2)
Florida State (3)
LSU (4)
Georgia (5)
Auburn (6)
North Carolina (7)
Vanderbilt (8)
Tennessee (9)
Clemson (10)
Coastal Carolina (11)
West Virginia (12)
Oregon (13)
Oregon State (14)
UCLA (15)
Arizona (16)
Other Options
Many books also offer the ancillary futures board of what eight teams will make the College World Series.
Three already come with a minus price, making them less than desirable options. Remember, as good as Arkansas (-200), Tennessee (-170) and LSU (-115) now look, they still have to win both a regional and super regional to cash their tickets. Single-game wagers along the way are much better than nabbing them here.
Sure, the next tier of Georgia (+100), Texas A&M (+165), Texas (+180), and North Carolina (+180) come with a plus price, but it’s not plus enough to tie up units for over a month. Underdogs with these same odds will also be live for single games during the regional round.
Go a little deeper on this board for other value-laden options.
Florida State (+210) offers 30 cents more than UNC, and the Seminoles should get a higher national seed than their ACC counterparts. FSU and its 35+ wins have been overlooked this year by the bookmakers. Link Jarrett pushed his club to Omaha last year, and he still relies on lefty Jamie Arnold, one of the top starting pitchers in the nation.
Pairing nicely with Arnold on the mound is the Seminoles’ offense that is second in the conference with a .318 batting average and tops in home runs. Much of that comes from Alex Lodise and his .400 batting average.
Then there is Oregon State with even better odds at +310. Playing as an independent thousands of miles away from SEC country means the Beavers don’t get into the national conversation as much as they should. As a nomad, OSU is already in tournament mode, playing a schedule that requires a lot of travel and games against top competition. Good preparation for the super regionals, which will likely take place on somebody else’s field.
If that super regional appearance occurs, +310 can then be monetized.
Lastly is Coastal Carolina (+380), a team that legitimately could make it to Omaha. Likewise, a +380 wager puts bettors in the position to do something with that ticket during the super regionals.
The Chanticleers have 40 wins and regular-season victories over Clemson, NC State and Kansas State. Coastal isn’t explosive on offense, but they can trot out three top starting pitchers in Jacob Morrison, Cam Flukey, and Riley Eikhoff.
Upcoming Dates
SEC Tournament: May 20-25, Hoover, AL (SEC Network & ESPN2)
ACC Tournament: May 20-25, Durham, NC (ACC Network & ESPN2)
Big 12 Tournament: May 21-24, Arlington, TX (ESPN+ & ESPNU)
Sun Belt Tournament: May 20-25, Montgomery, AL (ESPN+)
Conference USA Tournament: May 21-25, Lynchburg, VA (ESPN+ & CBS Sports Network)
