ACC
The ACC is hanging on for dear life in college football, but Duke and North Carolina keep the conference relevant on the hardwood.
There will be a ton of eyeballs on Duke this year, as Jon Scheyer landed Cooper Flagg, the top prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft. The Blue Devils also have several other high-end youngsters, and junior Tyrese Proctor is a superb lead guard.
North Carolina, last year’s ACC regular season champion, also has serious young talent, but the Tar Heels will be led by RJ Davis. The fifth-year guard averaged 21.2 points per game last year, and he’ll be joined by some excellent players in the backcourt.
The teams that have the best shot at spoiling the party are Wake Forest and Miami.
Steve Forbes was able to convince Hunter Sallis to stick around for one more year. Sallis averaged 18.0 points per game last season, and his presence should mean Wake will be great offensively again.
Miami returns Nijel Pack and Matthew Cleveland. Jim Larranaga also hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in Virginia Tech’s Lynn Kidd, Samford’s A.J. Staton-McCray, Stetson’s Jalen Blackmon, East Carolina’s Brandon Johnson and Idaho State’s Kiree Huie. The Hurricanes are also expecting big things out of five-star guard Jalil Bethea.
Louisville, Clemson, Virginia and NC State could also make noise.
The Cardinals hired Pat Kelsey as their new head coach. He’s fresh off a very successful stint with College of Charleston and has stockpiled talent quickly in Kentucky.
Clemson returns a decent amount of contributors from last year’s Elite Eight team, and Brad Brownell added through the portal.
Virginia is in a weird spot. Tony Bennett’s pack line defense and swing offense always gave the Cavaliers a high floor. But the team’s lack of firepower has been a real problem recently, and Bennett retired just before the start of the season. What will this team look like without him?
NC State has a good coach in Kevin Keatts, who won the ACC tournament with an average roster last year. Unfortunately, the Wolfpack won’t have DJ Burns back, but they should be alright without him.
What happens with the rest of the conference is anyone’s guess. Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame can’t be written off, nor can newcomer SMU — especially with Andy Enfield in charge. But things could be ugly for Boston College, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Stanford and California. The last two are also new to the conference.
Boston College
Boston College finished with 20 wins last season, which is something the Eagles hadn’t done since 2010-11. However, the oddsmakers have Boston College as the worst team in the conference this year. Earl Grant deserves a lot of credit for what he has done with this program, but things change quickly in college sports these days. The Eagles lost four of their five starters to the transfer portal. One of the losses had to sting more than others, as Jaeden Zackery stayed in the conference. Boston College also has to replace center Quinten Post, who averaged 17.0 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game. Post was one of the best bigs in the ACC, but he was drafted by the Golden State Warriors in June.
The Eagles will be hoping that returners Donald Hand and Chas Kelley can thrive with increased workloads, and transfers Dion Brown, Josh Beadle and Chad Venning will also be important pieces. Brown averaged 19.0 points per game for UMBC last season and can really score. However, Boston College doesn’t have the talent or depth required to compete in this conference. Grant will be limited to focusing on long-term development.
California
After going 28-9 in his final year at Utah Valley, Mark Madsen went 13-19 in his first season with Cal. Madsen should be able to turn this program around, but it’s not going to happen overnight. The oddsmakers only give the Golden Bears a 0.99% chance of winning the ACC this season. One thing Cal will do is compete defensively. In Madsen’s final season at Utah Valley, his team was 29th in the nation in defensive rating. Madsen also got the Golden Bears from 195th in defensive rating in 2023 to 139th in 2024. It was a small but noteworthy improvement. However, Cal only has two players back from last year’s team, and neither of them contributed a lick.
Madsen is hoping some high profile transfers exceed expectations this year. Mady Sissoko comes over from Michigan State, while Andrej Stojakovic left Stanford for Berkeley. But don’t be surprised if Christian Tucker is the best of all the transfers. He averaged 11.3 points and 5.4 assists per game for UTSA last year. However, even with a great coach and some exciting transfers, Cal won’t win a lot of games this year. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a solid ATS team.
Clemson
Clemson is looking for a fourth straight year with a winning ATS record. Losing P.J. Hall, who averaged 18.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game, is going to make that tough on Brad Brownell. But Ian Schieffelin, who almost averaged a double-double last year, and Cincinnati transfer Viktor Lahkin make up a great frontcourt. In the backcourt, the Tigers brought back Chase Hunter, one of the steadier point guards in the ACC. They also added some firepower in BC transfer Jaeden Zackery and Air Force transfer Jake Heidbreder. Both are absolute flamethrowers from 3, so don’t be surprised if Clemson significantly improves upon last year’s 35.1% shooting from deep.
The question will be whether or not the Tigers can continue to be a good defensive team. Clemson was 35th in the country in defensive rating last year, but this year’s roster isn’t quite as athletic. Brownell’s team also lacks a true off-the-dribble creator that can be trusted in isolation late in games. Hunter is probably the best bet, as he can really get to the basket. But Clemson can use a little something from somebody else.
Duke
Jon Scheyer’s first two seasons on the sidelines ended with Duke at 27-9, and the Blue Devils made it to the Elite Eight in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Scheyer hasn’t done anything spectacular just yet, but he hasn’t come under fire either. That could change if he doesn’t do something special with this year’s team.
Duke, which was seventh in KenPom’s efficiency rankings last season, brought in ESPN’s top-ranked recruiting class, headlined by Cooper Flagg. The 6-foot-9 forward is viewed as a generational NBA prospect. He’s an elite defender across multiple positions and has all sorts of game offensively. Freshmen Kon Knueppel, Isaiah Evans and Khaman Maluach are also supposed to make immediate impacts. The Blue Devils also brought back Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster, who are both awesome backcourt players. Tulane transfer Sion James will also help at guard. And Syracuse transfer Maliq Brown is a 6-foot-9 forward that should thrive in his new situation.
It’s rare to see a team with this much talent whose players complement one another so well. So, while Scheyer is absolutely winning when it comes to the recruiting trail, it’s time for him to make his first Final Four as Duke’s head coach.
Florida State
Leonard Hamilton has won at least 20 games in 12 of his 22 seasons with Florida State, but the Seminoles are trending in the wrong direction. Florida State has missed the NCAA Tournament in each of the last three seasons, and it’s starting to feel like Hamilton’s running out of time in Tallahassee – whether that’s his decision or the university’s. Last year’s Florida State team couldn’t shoot the 3 whatsoever. The Seminoles were 288th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage (31.7%) and that’s why they barely cracked the top 100 in offensive rating. Let’s see if this year’s team shoots it better.
Florida State’s best player will once again be Jamir Watkins, who averaged 15.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game last year. The former VCU wing can be trusted to show up on a nightly basis. But will Watkins get consistent help from anywhere else? Perhaps Chandler Jackson and Hampton transfer Jerry Deng can provide that. The ‘Noles are also high on freshman point guard Daquan Davis.
It feels like Hamilton is facing an uphill battle here. This program could once be relied on to be elite defensively, but that identity is gone.
Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets went 14-18 overall and 7-13 in conference play in Damon Stoudamire’s first year with the program. It wasn’t a great season overall, but Georgia Tech did score impressive wins over Clemson, Duke and North Carolina. That’s something to build on. The Yellow Jackets have some key pieces back, including big man Baye Ndongo. Last season, Ndongo averaged 12.4 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game. Naitha George also feels like he’s due for a pretty big leap after averaging 9.8 points and 4.7 dimes per game last year. Stoudamire also added a pair of useful transfers in Javian McCollum, who played great for Oklahoma last season, and Luke O’Brien, a nice role player for a Colorado team that made the NCAA Tournament last season.
Georgia Tech probably can’t be counted on for a massive leap in Stoudamire’s second year in Atlanta, but the Yellow Jackets are probably the most talented of all the ACC bottom-dwellers. This could be a team that ends up doing pretty well against the spread, and there’s some real hope for the future if Stoudamire can avoid losing guys to the portal.
Louisville
Since the start of the 2021-22 season, Louisville is just 25-71 overall and 11-49 in the ACC. This program has really fallen off, and Kenny Payne’s 12-52 record in two years didn’t help. But the Cardinals hired a proven winner in Pat Kelsey, who went 75-27 in three years with Charleston and is coming off back-to-back trips to the NCAA Tournament. Before that, Kelsey amassed a 186-95 record at Winthrop, and his time there included another three trips to the Big Dance.
Kelsey’s teams put up a lot of 3s offensively and defend the 3-point line on the other end of the floor. They also play with some real tempo on offense, while also having some nasty to them on defense. It’ll be interesting to see how quickly he can work his magic on Louisville, but it might not take all that long. Players have always wanted to play for this program. Kelsey did well to scoop Wisconsin’s Chucky Hepburn, Colorado’s J’Vonne Hadley, James Madison’s Terrence Edwards Jr., South Florida’s Kasean Pryor and BYU’s Noah Waterman in the portal. That’s a potential starting five of players that started for other teams last season.
If things click a little sooner than expected, the Cardinals could be the third-best team in the ACC.
Miami
After making the Final Four in 2022-23, the Hurricanes went 15-17 last year. However, it’s probably best to throw that out completely, as Miami had terrible injury luck. But this is still a team with an elite head coach, and there’s some real talent in Coral Gables this year. Nijel Pack, one of the first players to get a massive NIL deal, is back after averaging 13.3 points and 3.6 assists per game last year. He should be able to build on that, as you only have to go back to 2021-22 for a season in which he averaged 17.4 points per game — and did so on very efficient shooting. The Hurricanes also return Matthew Cleveland, who averaged 13.7 points and 6.1 rebounds per game last year. And transfers Lynn Kidd and A.J. Staton-McCray are proven starters at this level.
If five-star freshman point guard Jalil Bethea is ready to go right out the gate, this Miami team will be dangerous. Just two years ago, the Hurricanes were sixth in the nation in offensive rating. Larranaga has been great as an offensive coach in recent years, and he has had good defensive teams in the past.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels suffered a disappointing Sweet 16 exit in last year’s NCAA Tournament, but they did finish the year 29-8 and were the regular season ACC champions. And while some key pieces like Armando Bacot are gone, R.J. Davis is back after averaging 21.2 points per game. He was the ACC Player of the Year and an AP All-American, and he’ll be joined in the backcourt by returners Elliot Cadeau and Seth Trimble.
North Carolina also has two five-star freshmen coming in, as Ian Jackson and Drake Powell are expected to do big things on the wing. Hubert Davis also added an instant-impact transfer in Belmont forward Cade Tyson, who shot 46.5% from 3 on 5.5 attempts per game last year. And the Heels are also expecting a huge year from big man Jalen Washington. However, if Washington doesn’t take the next step, Vanderbilt transfer Ven-Allen Lubin can be a small-ball big. He averaged 12.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game last year.
North Carolina was a top-20 team in both offensive and defensive rating last season. This year’s team should be the same, and there might be more upside with this group.
North Carolina State
NC State was America’s team last year, as DJ Burns won fans over with his feathery touch and infectious smile. But Burns is now playing professional basketball in Korea, and the Wolfpack also lost leading scorer DJ Horne and his 16.9 points per game. The good news is that Kevin Keatts is a great head coach, and he should be able to put out a decent product this year.
Back from last year’s team are Michael O’Connell, Jayden Taylor and Ben Middlebrooks. New to the rotation are Louisville transfers Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Mike James. Huntley-Hatfield averaged 12.9 points and 8.4 rebounds per game last season, and he could be the best player on NC State this year. Meanwhile, James is a talented player that could look a lot better in a more stable situation. Dontrez Styles is another transfer that NC State will be counting on. The former North Carolina guard played good ball for Georgetown last year, averaging 12.8 points per game and shooting the 3 at a good clip.
The talent probably isn’t there for NC State to contend, but another year above .500 is well within reason. And the Wolfpack will be a hard out in any tournament.
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish went 13-20 in Micah Shrewsberry’s first year as head coach, but there’s hope that things will turn around fast. Shrewsberry went 14-17 in his first year with Penn State and then went 23-14 and made the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament in Year 2. Also, Notre Dame just landed a five-star recruit in the 2025 class, as guard Jalen Haralson decided that he wants to play for the Irish. That doesn’t happen without real belief in a head coach.
As far as this year’s team goes, Shrewsberry has some continuity. Markus Burton, Braeden Shrewsberry, Tae Davis and J.R. Konieczny are all back after starting last year. Burton averaged 17.5 points per game and should be one of the best guards in the ACC this year.
One thing that’s certain is that this team will be solid defensively. Notre Dame was 39th in defensive rating last year, and there’s no reason to expect a drop-off. The team just needs more offensively, as the Irish were 234th in the nation in offensive rating. That’s not going to cut it. Perhaps Princeton transfer Matt Allocco can help. He shot 42.7% from 3 last year and should see minutes at both guard spots.
Pittsburgh
The Panthers were 22-11 last year and finished 33rd in KenPom’s efficiency rankings last year. However, Blake Hinson and Bub Carrington are gone. Hinson, who averaged 18.5 points per game, is currently trying to latch on with an NBA team, while Carrington was drafted by the Washington Wizards with the 14th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Those two were huge parts of what the Panthers did last year.
Pittsburgh will now hope that Ishmael Leggett and Jaland Lowe can step up and be the go-to guards. Both players managed to pop last year, despite playing with two guards that were higher in the pecking order. The Panthers will also be hoping for a leap from forward Zack Austin, who was solid in a smaller role for the team last season. The Panthers also have some important transfers coming in, as big man Cam Corhen comes from Florida State and Damian Dunn is over from Houston. Both will have chances to play big minutes. Pitt will also be hoping for some development from Jorge Diaz Graham and Guillermo Diaz Graham.
It’s not entirely clear what this will look like, but Jeff Capel has settled in nicely as the team’s coach and Leggett should be able to show out as the new star.
SMU
After going 15-18 at USC last season, Andy Enfield decided to take the SMU job. Enfield went 220-147 in 11 seasons with the Trojans, and that was directly after going 41-28 in two years with Florida Gulf Coast. Enfield has turned programs around before, and he even took USC to the Elite Eight in 2020-21. So, he could do some big things with the resources he’ll have in Dallas. Lower expectations won’t hurt either. SMU went 20-13 last season, but the Mustangs were in the American Athletic Conference. This will be a step up in competition. A winning record isn’t out of the question, nor is a solid ATS mark. But SMU probably won’t be as good as last year.
Getting Chuck Harris and his 13.4 points per game back helps. Harris can really score and is a great shooter. Enfield also had some big wins on the transfer portal, landing Wake Forest’s Kevin Harris (15.6 PPG) and UMass’s Matt Cross (15.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG). Both will contribute instantly. He’s also taking some swings on Oregon’s Yohan Traore and UC Santa Barbara’s Kario Oquendo.
Stanford
Stanford made one of the best coaching moves of the summer, replacing Jerod Haase with Kyle Smith. Haase did a good job of getting talent to Palo Alto, but consistency on the court evaded him. That shouldn’t be a problem with Smith, who had two 20-win seasons with Columbia, three in three seasons with San Francisco, and two in the last three seasons he spent with Washington State. Smith won’t say it like Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti did, but he wins. Google him.
This year’s Cardinal group has a great center in Maxime Raynaud, who averaged 15.5 points and 9.6 rebounds per game last year. Raynaud will be one of the best centers in the nation this season. He just might not have much help. In returner Benny Gealer and UC Irvine transfer Derin Saran, the Cardinal have one of the worst starting backcourts in the ACC. Smith could, however, have something interesting in USC transfer Oziyah Sellers and Harvard transfer Chisom Okpara. Sellers has some tools, so he’s an upside swing. And Okpara averaged 16.5 points per game for the Crimson last year.
This team isn’t good enough to do much damage this year, but it won’t take long for Smith to get this thing going.
Syracuse
Adrian Autry didn’t make the NCAA Tournament in his first year as Syracuse’s head coach, but the Orange went 20-12 overall and 11-9 in conference. He’ll be hoping to build on that in Year 2, but it’s not going to be easy. Maliq Brown, an impressive forward, left for Duke in the offseason. The Orange also lost guard Judah Mintz, who averaged 18.8 points per game and was one of the best drivers in the nation.
Syracuse does bring back forward Chris Bell, who is one of the best shooters in the country. JJ Starling is also a meaningful returner, as he averaged 13.3 points per game last year. Outside of that, Autry will be hoping that Hofstra’s Jaquan Carlos, Delaware’s Jyare Davis and Colorado’s Eddie Lampkin can be useful portal additions. While Lampkin is the biggest name in that group, it’s Davis that is most intriguing. He averaged 17.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game last year. And if he doesn’t live up to expectations, maybe Donnie Freeman will. The five-star recruit has a lot of potential.
Virginia
This program, which won a national title in 2019, had the best regular-season record six times from 2014 to 2023, and has finished with two or fewer conference losses in four of the last 11 seasons. The Cavaliers can generally be counted on to be elite defensively and boring-but-efficient offensively. However, that turned into boring and bad offensively in 2024. The Cavaliers were 200th in the nation in offensive rating, and that’s just not good enough to do anything meaningful. Tony Bennett, one of the best coaches in college basketball, also retired right before the season. Was what he saw in practice so bad that he couldn’t stomach another year?
This team does have some solid offensive players, as Isaac McKneely and Andrew Rohde are both willing and able to knock down shots. However, it’s unsettling that the Cavaliers are prepared to start a non-shooter at point guard, with Florida State transfer Jalen Warley likely getting the nod. And while Duke transfer TJ Power and returning big Blake Buchanan have potential in the frontcourt, they haven’t proven much of anything. There are now real question marks surrounding this program, which should be in the bottom half of the conference this season.
Virginia Tech
Mike Young is a good coach, but the Hokies haven’t been very reliable in conference since he took the job. Sure, the overall record of 92-66 over the last five years is decent, but they’re just 45-48 in conference. And this year’s team is fighting an uphill battle when it comes to being respectable. Virginia Tech doesn’t have a single starter back from last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Young rights the ship eventually, but I’d be stunned if he does anything with this roster.
Young will be hoping that Temple transfer Hysier Miller can be a star this year. Miller did average 15.9 points, 4.0 assists and 1.8 steals per game last season. However, he shot 35.3% from the floor and 29.4% from 3, and that was in a much worse league. Honestly, Ben Burnham, who averaged 11.9 points and 4.5 rebounds per game for College of Charleston last year, might be the prize of the transfer group. He’s a stretch four and his game should translate nicely. Young will also be hoping that swings on Virginia guard Jaydon Young, Cal forward Rodney Brown Jr. and Pitt big man Mylyjael Poteat will work out.
Wake Forest
Steve Forbes went 6-16 in his first year with the Demon Deacons. Since then, Wake Forest is 65-38 overall and 34-26 in ACC play. And while Forbes hasn’t yet made the NCAA Tournament, this should be the year. Last season, Wake Forest was 25th in the nation in offensive rating and 59th in defensive rating. This year’s group should be great on offense again, as Hunter Sallis is back after averaging 18.0 points per game on nasty shooting splits. The Deacons also bring back Cameron Hildreth, another guy that can really shoot it, and Efton Reid, a seven-footer that played well for Wake in his first year after transferring from Gonzaga.
Forbes is now hoping that Ty-Laur Johnson, a Louisville transfer, or Omaha Biliew, a five-star forward that went to Iowa State, can be his next big transfer portal success. Johnson has the potential to be the point guard Wake desperately needs, while Biliew has the star potential that Sallis once had. Tre’Von Spillers is another intriguing transfer, as he averaged 12.8 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game for Appalachian State last season.
All in all, this team is talented and well coached. Wake is as good a bet to win the ACC as anybody outside of Duke or Carolina.
