Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded Saturday slate of over 130 College Basketball games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a handful of high (and low) profile games.
1 p.m. ET: Illinois at Wisconsin (-3, 153)
Illinois (21-7, ranked 13th) has won four of their last five games and just brushed aside Minnesota 105-97. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (18-10) has lost six of their last eight games and just fell to Indiana 74-70. This game opened with Wisconsin listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is an unranked team who has played so poorly as of late favored over a ranked team who is red-hot? The public says “the wrong team is favored” and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog Illinois. However, despite 65% of spread bets taking Illinois we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Wisconsin (-2.5 to -3). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Badgers, with pros fading the trendy dog Illini. Wisconsin is only receiving 35% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. Wisconsin has the better defensive efficiency (54th vs 96th) and better free-throw shooting (76% vs 74%). Ken Pom has Wisconsin winning by one point (79-78), which makes a Wisconsin moneyline play a bit more appealing (-155). Wisconsin is 13-2 at home. Illinois is 4-5 on the road. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 26-17 SU (60%) this season and 69-30 SU (70%) since the start of last season. Big Ten home favorites are 68-22 SU (76%) in conference play this season.
2 p.m. ET: Duquesne at George Mason (-3, 133)
Duquesne (17-11) has won three of their last four games and just edged La Salle 75-63. Conversely, George Mason (18-10) has dropped two straight games and just fell to Fordham 61-60. This line opened with George Mason listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen George Mason creep up from -2.5 to -3, signaling smart money buying low on the home team in a bounce-back spot. This move is also notable because this is one of the smaller, lower bet games of the day. As a result, the public may not be focused on this matchup but pros have taken a position based on the line move. George Mason is receiving 82% of spread bets and 95% of spread dollars, signaling a heavy dose of lopsided action in favor of the home team. George Mason has the better offensive efficiency (95th vs 168th) and far better free-throw shooting (75% vs 70%), which could prove crucial in a tight game. Ken Pom has George Mason winning by four points (70-66). He also has George Mason ranked higher (98th vs 109th). George Mason is 13-2 at home. Duquesne is just 3-6 on the road. George Mason also enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on February 27th compared to Duquesne last playing February 28th. George Mason is -160 on the moneyline. Atlantic 10 home favorites are 53-27 SU (66%) in conference play this season.
5:30 p.m. ET: Wake Forest at Virginia Tech (-1.5, 149.5)
Wake Forest (18-10) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Notre Dame 70-65. On the other hand, Virginia Tech (15-13) has dropped three of their last four games and just got rolled by Syracuse 84-71. This line opened at a pick’em. One would assume that we’d see the line rise toward Wake Forest, who possesses the better won-loss record. However, pros have gone the other way, buying low on Virginia Tech at home and steaming the Hokies up from a pick’em to -1.5. Virginia Tech is only receiving 48% of spread bets but 61% of spread dollars, signaling an undecided public but also a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the Hokies. Pros seem to be specifically targeting Virginia Tech on the moneyline (-120) as they are only receiving 40% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars. Virginia Tech is 12-2 at home this season. Meanwhile, Wake Forest is just 2-8 on the road. This is also a revenge spot for Virginia Tech, who lost to Wake Forest on the road 86-63 in late December. ACC home favorites are 66-22 SU (75%) in conference play this season.
6 p.m. ET: VCU at Richmond (-3, 135)
VCU (19-9) has won six of their last seven games and just crushed Rhode Island 88-67. Similarly, Richmond (21-7) has won four straight games and just brushed aside Saint Louis 80-64. This line opened with Richmond listed as a 2-point home favorite. Pros seem to think this opener was a bit short and have gotten down hard on Richmond, steaming the Spiders up from -2 to -3. Richmond is receiving 76% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars, signaling both public and sharp support. Richmond takes better care of the ball, ranking 1st in the country in turnover percentage while VCU ranks 250th. Richmond also has the better defensive efficiency (26th vs 45th). Ken Pom has Richmond winning by four points (68-64). He also has Richmond ranked higher (73rd vs 83rd). Richmond is 13-1 at home this season. This is also a revenge spot for Richmond, who lost to VCU on the road 63-52 in early February. Richmond is -155 on the moneyline. Atlantic 10 home favorites are 53-27 SU (66%) in conference play this season.
8 p.m. ET: Tennessee at Alabama (-3.5, 171)
Tennessee (22-6, ranked 4th) has won five straight games and just took care of business against Auburn 92-84. Similarly, Alabama (20-8, ranked 14th) has won four of their last five games and just beat Ole Miss 103-88. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this game should be a pick’em or even have Tennessee favored, as they have the better record and ranking. However, despite 70% of spread bets taking Tennessee, this line has moved further toward Alabama (-2.5 to -3.5). Why would the oddsmakers hand out more points to public Tennessee backers when they’re already hammering the Vols to begin with? Because pro money has sided with Alabama at home, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home team. Alabama is only receiving 30% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in a heavily bet primetime game. Alabama has several advantages on offense, boasting the better offensive efficiency (1st vs 18th), better effective field goal percentage (57% vs 53%), better three-point shooting (38% vs 34%) and better free-throw shooting (79% vs 75%). Ken Pom has Alabama winning by two points (85-83), so a Crimson Tide moneyline play makes a lot of sense (-160). Alabama is 13-1 at home. This is a revenge spot for Alabama, who lost to Tennessee on the road 91-71 in late January. When two ranked teams face each other, the home favorite is 32-7 SU (82%) this season. SEC home favorites are 53-20 SU (73%) in conference play this season.
