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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s 64-game College Basketball slate.

7 p.m. ET: Drexel at Hofstra (-4, 135)

Drexel (17-10) has won two straight games and just brushed aside Campbell 81-66. Meanwhile, Hofstra (16-11) has won five of their last six games and just crushed Northeastern 82-62. This line opened with Hofstra listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Pros seem to think this opener was a bit short and they’ve steamed Hofstra up from -2.5 to -4. Hofstra is receiving 69% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action from respected bettors. Hofstra has the far better effective field goal percentage (56% vs 50%), better three-point percentage (37% vs 34%), better free-throw percentage (75% vs 72%) and also turns the ball over less (99th vs 153rd). Ken Pom has Hofstra winning by two points (68-66). As a result, savvy bettors may prefer to back Hofstra on the moneyline (-180) in order to protect themselves from a tight win that may not cover the number. Currently 78% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars are taking Hofstra, further evidence of pros backing Hofstra to win the game straight up. This is a revenge spot for Hofstra, who lost to Drexel 79-77 on the road just a week ago. Hofstra is 9-2 at home. Drexel is just 5-9 on the road. Home favorites are 48-12 (80%) straight up in CAA conference play.

7 p.m. ET: Charleston (-1.5, 155) at Delaware

Charleston (20-7) has won five straight games and just edged William & Mary 65-57. In the same vein, Delaware (17-10) has won five of their last six games and just beat North Carolina A&T 62-54. This line opened with Charleston listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low for a team with a such a good won-loss record and they’re laying the points with Charleston. However, despite receiving 60% of spread bets we’ve seen Charleston fall from -2 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Delaware, with pros grabbing the points with the contrarian home dog. Delaware is only receiving 40% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars, indicating a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor. This qualifies as a “Ken Pom Sound the Alarm” play as Ken Pom has Delaware winning the game outright (77-76), which provides actionable value on Delaware plus the points. Delaware has the better field goal percentage (47% vs 43%) and better defensive efficiency (152nd vs 199th). We’ve also seen sharp money hit the over, steaming the total up from 152 to 155. The over is only receiving 34% of bets but a whopping 98% of dollars, a massive sharp over bet discrepancy.

9 p.m. ET: Troy at Arkansas State (-2.5, 154.5)

Troy (18-9) has won seven of their last eight games and just crushed UL Monroe 85-57. Similarly, Arkansas State (13-14) has won five of their last six games and just outlasted South Alabama 76-73. This line opened with Arkansas State listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Sure, we have to factor in home court advantage, but why is a 13-14 team favored over an 18-9 team? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? Pros have have embraced the fishy home favorite, driving Arkansas State up from -2 to -2.5. Arkansas State has a big edge in terms of offensive efficiency (61st vs 162nd), as well as having the better effective field goal percentage (52% vs 50%) and a far better turnover percentage (134th vs 298th). Ken Pom has Arkansas State winning by two points (79-77). As a result, backing Arkansas State on the moneyline might be a safer bet (-135). Arkansas State is only receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 68% of moneyline dollars, signaling a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split to win the game straight up. Arkansas State is 8-3 at home. Troy is 3-7 on the road. Arkansas State just beat Troy 82-71 on the road a week ago. Home favorites are 37-10 (79%) straight up in Sun Belt conference play.

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