College basketball best bets and projections
Wake Forest had my hopes up at halftime vs Duke yesterday, but ultimately blew the cover by a half point while Southeastern Louisiana came through in OT to give us a 1-1 split yesterday on the men’s side. There were no actionable plays for women’s basketball, so we’ll look to get back on the winning side today. Another small slate Tuesday, so we’ll be selective about our volume and not try to force anything that isn’t truly actionable. Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, for women’s best bets.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
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- NCAAB Expert Picks
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These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, February 13th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | San Jose State | 1.5 | 138.9 |
| Baylor | Oklahoma | 6.0 | 152.9 |
| Boston College | Louisville | 9.8 | 150.8 |
| Brigham Young | Central Florida | 8.3 | 145.1 |
| Buffalo | Northern Illinois | -14.3 | 148.4 |
| Butler | Marquette | 0.5 | 158.9 |
| Cincinnati | Iowa State | -3.5 | 144.9 |
| Colorado State | San Diego State | -6.5 | 147.7 |
| Creighton | Georgetown | 19.2 | 153.9 |
| Davidson | La Salle | 10.7 | 144.4 |
| Dayton | Duquesne | 11.4 | 139.6 |
| Drake | Evansville | 6.5 | 148.6 |
| Florida | Louisiana State | 9.3 | 162.1 |
| Florida State | Virginia Tech | -5.7 | 150.4 |
| George Mason | George Washington | 14.4 | 150.4 |
| Illinois | Michigan | 18.5 | 156.7 |
| Illinois State | Indiana State | -18.6 | 147.6 |
| Kentucky | Mississippi | 3.9 | 163.5 |
| Nevada | New Mexico | -1.5 | 154.4 |
| North Carolina | Syracuse | 8.5 | 153.7 |
| Ohio State | Wisconsin | -11.7 | 144.5 |
| Pittsburgh | Virginia | -5.0 | 133.6 |
| Providence | St. John’s (NY) | -0.4 | 146.6 |
| Tennessee State | Tennessee Tech | 5.4 | 140.2 |
| Texas A&M | Vanderbilt | 10.8 | 139.1 |
Bets:
Butler +4.5
Iowa St +1.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Brigham Young | Central Florida | 3.2 | 131.5 |
| DePaul | Marquette | -6.7 | 143.0 |
| Georgetown | Villanova | -8.1 | 117.3 |
| Minnesota | Rutgers | 7.1 | 133.1 |
| Seton Hall | St. John’s (NY) | -1.9 | 119.0 |
| South Florida | Wichita State | 15.7 | 124.6 |
| TCU | West Virginia | -12.0 | 131.9 |
| Tennessee State | Tennessee Tech | -7.5 | 134.0 |
