College basketball best bets and projections

Last week started red hot for both men’s and women’s projections, and while the best bet success tailed off by the weekend, the overall projections still held up nicely, as several people in my X mentions pointed out their successes using my numbers to make bets of their own (which is what they’re here for!). Not a big slate on this Monday, but hopefully we can find a couple of winners here and regain the best bet momentum that carried us through most of last week. Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s best bets and any additions to the men’s card.

Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.


These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on. 

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, February 5th:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.


Alabama A&MBethune-Cookman-5.3150.6
Alabama StateFlorida A&M9.8144.0
Alcorn StateGrambling1.2140.2
Arkansas-Pine BluffPrairie View-2.5158.6
Coppin StateSouth Carolina State-11.0137.5
Delaware StateHoward1.3148.2
Eastern WashingtonPortland State3.3146.4
Houston ChristianNew Orleans0.7153.9
IdahoSacramento State-6.6137.9
Incarnate WordSoutheastern Louisiana-10.3143.1
Jackson StateSouthern-1.1146.5
KansasKansas State8.1145.6
Maryland-Eastern ShoreNorfolk State-11.7139.0
McNeese StateTexas A&M-Commerce20.7138.9
Miami (FL)Virginia-3.6136.6
Morgan StateNorth Carolina Central-10.0145.7
Nicholls StateNorthwestern State6.8148.8


Houston Christian +5.5

Delaware St/Howard Over 141.5


Alabama A&MBethune-Cookman-1.9125.6
Alabama StateFlorida A&M-6.4127.0
Alcorn StateGrambling-7.1128.2
Arkansas-Pine BluffPrairie View14.3137.0
Chicago StateLong Island University-12.4137.0
Coppin StateSouth Carolina State16.1118.4
Delaware StateHoward-10.1128.6
Eastern WashingtonPortland State27.3128.6
IdahoSacramento State15.6121.1
Jackson StateSouthern14.2125.8
LouisvilleNC State-6.2134.9
Maryland-Eastern ShoreNorfolk State-5.6126.5
Michigan StateMinnesota10.9137.8
Morgan StateNorth Carolina Central-10.3132.4