College basketball best bets and projections

As conference tournaments wind down and we hit the final stretch of the college basketball season before the NCAA Tournament begins, I want to be even more selective with my bets. Teams playing several games in a short period of time due to the structure of conference tournaments can make handicapping even more tricky. While I obviously believe in my projections, it’s impossible to quantify the wear and tear on teams as they slog their way through conference tournaments, not to mention the motivation of teams who are only getting in the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament. All that said, let’s be especially disciplined this week as we prepare for March Madness.

Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response

 

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Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.

These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on. 

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, March 11th:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.

Men’s

TeamTeamTSITSI O/U
College of CharlestonTowson3.5140.6
GonzagaSan Francisco5.8151.1
HofstraStony Brook5.6145.0
James MadisonArkansas State11.9158.1
LamarNew Orleans13.7154.3
MontanaPortland State5.8145.1
Nicholls StateTexas A&M-Commerce5.6144.8
Northern KentuckyMilwaukee1.9152.3
OaklandCleveland State4.4148.1
OmahaDenver0.3161.0
Saint Mary’s (CA)Santa Clara10.0138.7
SamfordEast Tennessee State10.4151.3
South Dakota StateSt. Thomas-0.5142.8
Weber StateMontana State5.7143.6

Lean: James Madison -5.5

Women’s

TeamTeamTSITSI O/U
Albany (NY)Vermont-3.6113.6
Boston UniversityArmy3.7127.6
Cleveland StateWright State13.5139.5
ColgateNavy8.5125.1
ConnecticutGeorgetown26.8126.8
Fairleigh DickinsonLong Island University9.4126.2
GonzagaPacific25.2148.1
Green BayPurdue Fort Wayne11.1128.6
Holy CrossBucknell6.9117.6
Le MoyneStonehill15.1120.3
Loyola (MD)Lehigh-1.9135.0
MaineBinghamton9.3126.3
MarshallJames Madison8.6150.8
MerrimackCentral Connecticut State5.4127.5
MontanaIdaho9.8125.6
Montana StateNorthern Colorado1.0120.6
NevadaColorado State-9.4129.8
Nevada-Las VegasFresno State21.8137.9
New MexicoSan Diego State1.1128.1
New OrleansNicholls State-3.8129.3
North Dakota StateOral Roberts3.1153.8
North TexasRice3.8136.7
OklahomaIowa State2.6148.8
Sacred HeartSaint Francis (PA)25.3126.9
Santa ClaraPortland3.3128.4
South Dakota StateSouth Dakota9.3129.8
TempleTulane7.8131.1
TexasKansas State10.0132.8
Texas A&M-CommerceNorthwestern State-3.5135.5
TulsaEast Carolina-0.8133.6
UTSASouth Florida-3.3121.8
WyomingBoise State1.2119.3