College basketball best bets and projections

Yesterday was a 1-1 split for me on women’s hoops, and while I didn’t have any official plays, I did give out James Madison as a lean so if you tailed that then you cashed it with ease, as the Dukes won by 20 as 5.5-point favorites. Unsurprisingly, as we get deeper into conference tournaments and the bigger conferences get into their tournaments, lines are getting sharper according to TSI, as the average discrepancy today between my projection and consensus odds was a mere 1.7 points on spreads. I have a couple of totals I’m going to give, but it’s tough sledding on these highly-bet conference games.

Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response.

 

Speaking of the conference tournaments, we’re previewing them all, so check out our 2024 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.

Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.

These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on. 

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, March 12th:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.

Men’s

TeamTeamTSITSI O/U
Boston CollegeMiami (FL)-1.3149.7
Central FloridaOklahoma State5.9138.3
CincinnatiWest Virginia11.2144.9
College of CharlestonStony Brook7.9153.6
FordhamDavidson-6.0140.6
IonaManhattan11.0145.9
Jacksonville StateFlorida International2.2144.5
La SalleGeorge Washington1.6155.9
Massachusetts-LowellBryant4.0154.1
McNeese StateLamar10.7144.8
MerrimackWagner6.3126.3
MontanaIdaho State6.1143.8
Montana StateSacramento State2.9136.8
Mount St. Mary’sCanisius3.0144.8
NC StateLouisville10.2151.8
NiagaraSiena13.8141.9
Notre DameGeorgia Tech1.0135.1
OaklandMilwaukee6.4154.3
Rhode IslandSaint Louis1.5158.8
Saint Mary’s (CA)Gonzaga0.2142.7
South Dakota StateDenver6.7163.9
Texas A&M-Corpus ChristiNicholls State4.6142.0
VermontNew Hampshire11.1139.9

Bets:

Niagara/Siena Over 131

Iona/Manhattan Over 137

Women’s

TeamTeamTSITSI O/U
Boise StateSan Diego State1.1123.4
Central ArkansasEastern Kentucky0.0124.1
Cleveland StateGreen Bay-2.5128.0
Eastern WashingtonMontana State9.5116.8
Florida Gulf CoastAustin Peay19.1119.2
GonzagaPortland21.6133.7
Incarnate WordTexas A&M-Commerce6.6132.4
Mount St. Mary’sMarist6.0114.7
Nevada-Las VegasColorado State12.6134.6
Northern ArizonaMontana-4.0146.2
QuinnipiacSaint Peter’s8.0115.5
RiderIona-5.1119.3
South Dakota StateNorth Dakota State8.5132.6
Southeastern LouisianaNicholls State6.7119.1
TempleRice1.9128.7
TexasIowa State15.3139.9
UTEPSam Houston6.8139.4
UTSAEast Carolina-3.4123.8