College basketball best bets and projections
Yesterday was a 1-1 split for me on women’s hoops, and while I didn’t have any official plays, I did give out James Madison as a lean so if you tailed that then you cashed it with ease, as the Dukes won by 20 as 5.5-point favorites. Unsurprisingly, as we get deeper into conference tournaments and the bigger conferences get into their tournaments, lines are getting sharper according to TSI, as the average discrepancy today between my projection and consensus odds was a mere 1.7 points on spreads. I have a couple of totals I’m going to give, but it’s tough sledding on these highly-bet conference games.
Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response.
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Speaking of the conference tournaments, we’re previewing them all, so check out our 2024 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, March 12th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Boston College | Miami (FL) | -1.3 | 149.7 |
| Central Florida | Oklahoma State | 5.9 | 138.3 |
| Cincinnati | West Virginia | 11.2 | 144.9 |
| College of Charleston | Stony Brook | 7.9 | 153.6 |
| Fordham | Davidson | -6.0 | 140.6 |
| Iona | Manhattan | 11.0 | 145.9 |
| Jacksonville State | Florida International | 2.2 | 144.5 |
| La Salle | George Washington | 1.6 | 155.9 |
| Massachusetts-Lowell | Bryant | 4.0 | 154.1 |
| McNeese State | Lamar | 10.7 | 144.8 |
| Merrimack | Wagner | 6.3 | 126.3 |
| Montana | Idaho State | 6.1 | 143.8 |
| Montana State | Sacramento State | 2.9 | 136.8 |
| Mount St. Mary’s | Canisius | 3.0 | 144.8 |
| NC State | Louisville | 10.2 | 151.8 |
| Niagara | Siena | 13.8 | 141.9 |
| Notre Dame | Georgia Tech | 1.0 | 135.1 |
| Oakland | Milwaukee | 6.4 | 154.3 |
| Rhode Island | Saint Louis | 1.5 | 158.8 |
| Saint Mary’s (CA) | Gonzaga | 0.2 | 142.7 |
| South Dakota State | Denver | 6.7 | 163.9 |
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | Nicholls State | 4.6 | 142.0 |
| Vermont | New Hampshire | 11.1 | 139.9 |
Bets:
Niagara/Siena Over 131
Iona/Manhattan Over 137
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Boise State | San Diego State | 1.1 | 123.4 |
| Central Arkansas | Eastern Kentucky | 0.0 | 124.1 |
| Cleveland State | Green Bay | -2.5 | 128.0 |
| Eastern Washington | Montana State | 9.5 | 116.8 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | Austin Peay | 19.1 | 119.2 |
| Gonzaga | Portland | 21.6 | 133.7 |
| Incarnate Word | Texas A&M-Commerce | 6.6 | 132.4 |
| Mount St. Mary’s | Marist | 6.0 | 114.7 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | Colorado State | 12.6 | 134.6 |
| Northern Arizona | Montana | -4.0 | 146.2 |
| Quinnipiac | Saint Peter’s | 8.0 | 115.5 |
| Rider | Iona | -5.1 | 119.3 |
| South Dakota State | North Dakota State | 8.5 | 132.6 |
| Southeastern Louisiana | Nicholls State | 6.7 | 119.1 |
| Temple | Rice | 1.9 | 128.7 |
| Texas | Iowa State | 15.3 | 139.9 |
| UTEP | Sam Houston | 6.8 | 139.4 |
| UTSA | East Carolina | -3.4 | 123.8 |
