College Basketball Best Bets Today:
It is a calm Friday on the college hoops hardwood with 16 games to consider. A big battle in the Big Ten between Illinois and Northwestern is easily the most notable game on the board. Even though tomorrow is conference championship Saturday for college football, we have 99 games on the schedule, so don’t worry, there will be plenty of time to have action on that card.
But, still. 99 games or 16 games or 10 games or 60 games, I’m still scanning the card to find what I think are the best plays of the day and here’s what I’ve found for Friday.
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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Delaware Blue Hens at Duquesne Dukes (-3.5, 147)
6 p.m. ET
The first game on the board by start time and rotation number is Delaware vs. Duquesne in some CAA vs. A-10 action. It has been an atrocious start at Duquesne for Dru Joyce, LeBron James’ teammate at St. Vincent-St. Mary high school in Akron. Joyce played 12 years overseas before getting into coaching, first as an assistant for Dennis Gates at Cleveland State and then Keith Dambrot at Duquesne. Bronny James was actually committed to Duquesne to play for Joyce before going to the NBA.
The Dukes are off to a 1-7 start and it has been ugly on both ends of the floor. They’ve only scored over a point per possession in one game, but have allowed over a point per possession in six of their eight games. They have played a much tougher schedule than Delaware, but the lack of defensive coverage is a major concern for me in this game against a Delaware offense that runs really well for veteran head coach Martin Inglesby.
Delaware is shooting over 40% from 3, as they’ve been able to create a lot of open looks. Duquesne is only shooting 30.2% from 3. As I said, this is a step up in class for Delaware, but Inglesby’s star players have done really well thus far. John Camden originally committed to Memphis and was at Virginia Tech for two years before getting a chance in Newark. He’s averaging 17.1 PPG and 4.8 RPG. Holdover Cavan Reilly is second with 14.9 and has scored at least 15 points in each of the last six. JUCO transfer Erik Timko is also in double digits.
Ironically, the guy struggling the most is Niels Lane, the fifth-year senior who was originally at Florida. He’s only shooting 15-of-32 on Close Twos, but he was a 57% shooter on 2s last season. To me, there are just too many scoring threats that the Dukes have to contain to have success here.
Duquesne is 91-of-296 on jump shots (long 2s and 3s), so that’s just 30.7%. They’re also under 60% at the stripe. They may find some success getting inside on Delaware, but only have a shot share of 34.1% on Close Twos so far, as Joyce’s offense isn’t really clicking.
Pick: Delaware +3.5
Georgetown Hoyas at West Virginia Mountaineers (-8.5, 143)
7 p.m. ET
A big strength of schedule discrepancy is the story in this game, as Georgetown heads to Morgantown to take on West Virginia. We’ll get a real feel for how much Ed Cooley’s team has improved in this one. I also imagine that bettors are turned off about the Hoyas because they stepped up in class once this season and got throttled by Notre Dame in a 21-point home loss.
I think a lot has changed with the Hoyas over the last few weeks. They’ve beaten up on every inferior team that they’ve played, which is good, but Cooley has to have a better feel for his roster now. Jayden Epps was the highest-usage player for the Hoyas last season and is the most notable returnee, but Malik Mack, Micah Peavy, and Jordan Burks all transferred in, plus Cooley’s freshmen class has gotten a lot of runway.
Georgetown’s SOS is 352 per Torvik and West Virginia just got done with a gauntlet in the Bahamas of Gonzaga, Louisville, and Arizona. Ironically, the Mountaineers lost to the worst team of that mix in Louisville. All three games went to overtime, but they’ve had a week to get organized after that big energy drain.
What I will say about Georgetown’s loss is that they simply didn’t shoot the ball well. The Hoyas had 10 more offensive rebounds and only had five turnovers to Notre Dame’s 12. They just didn’t make shots, going 8-of-32 from 3 and 14-of-38 on 2s. The inefficient shooters in Cooley’s rotation are unlikely to play as much in a bigger game like this.
West Virginia has had issues on defense against better offensive teams. They’ve allowed 1.182, 1.014, 1.087, and 1.044 points per possession in their games against legitimate competition. I think Georgetown can score here. We’ll see how well they can defend, but WVU only has a shot share of 31.8% on Close Twos. They’re a jump shot-oriented offense and that means some variance in their profile.
Pick: Georgetown +8.5