College basketball schedule today has 21 games
The day after the Super Bowl usually feels like a little bit of a letdown, but we’ve got 21 college basketball games on the card, plus 11 games in the NBA and six games in the NHL. If you’re just starting out in college hoops now that football is over, keep your volume light and your research heavy so that you can get caught up on what’s going on. (Tracking sheet)
If you’re just starting to really look at the NBA and NHL, that’s where my colleagues Jonathan Von Tobel and Andy MacNeil come in. Check out JVT’s NBA best bets today and Andy’s daily NHL picks.
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Before I get into the Monday card, an announcement that our new VSiN College Basketball Betting Podcast launches today with host Tim Murray. I’ll be on the early-week episode and Matt Youmans will be on later in the week as we bring you some college basketball betting tips, trends and more.
Here are some thoughts on the February 13 card (odds from DraftKings):
Miami (FL) Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels (-5.5, 155.5)
It looks like we’ll have a tight one in Chapel Hill tonight between the Hurricanes and Tar Heels. Miami has been penalized a little bit with the line move for what they’ve done on the road in conference play this season. For some reason, despite being third in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in adjusted defensive efficiency in road conference games, they’re not getting a whole lot of respect because they’re 4-4 and haven’t finished off some winnable games.
Miami is a top-10 team in adjusted offensive efficiency overall per both Bart Torvik and Ken Pomeroy. In this game, they face a Tar Heels defense that ranks 330th in the nation in TO%. North Carolina has decent defensive numbers, but nothing outlandishly good, so I think the Hurricanes will score their points tonight. They have a much higher shot share on Close Twos than North Carolina and are less reliant on mid-range jumpers.
Miami is also the better 3-point shooting team in a game where that could be the difference. Miami is shooting 36.3% from 3, while North Carolina is shooting 31.4%. I’m getting a couple of possessions worth of points here with a team that doesn’t turn the ball over, excels at shot-making and faces a team that struggles to shoot from 3, which makes it all hard to win by margin.
Really ugly card today. Grambling -5.5 and Drexel +9.5 were considerations, but Miami is the only one that made the cut.
Pick: Miami +5.5
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